要素投入、资源经营与林业生态工程建设的过程绩效——基于我国天保工程灰色投入产出系统的实证研究

林业生态工程有别于一般工程项目，其要素投入、资源经营与工程绩效之间呈现灰色系统“信息不完全”的典型关系特征，对优化工程决策、强化工程管理和过程控制、改进工程绩效等形成严峻挑战。文中以我国天保工程为例，基于对投入产出体系灰色特征的理论解析，利用灰色系统的方法学工具分别构建天保工程投入产出模型、中介效应模型及效益互动模型，得到了要素投入、资源经营与工程绩效之间的作用关系，验证资源经营变量在投入产出体系里的中介效应，探明了生态、社会、经济三大效益之间的内在关联机制，总体实现了对林业生态工程灰色投入产出系统的白化目标；基于实证研究结果，进一步分别从理论和实践层面提出促进我国林业生态工程建设的启发性建议。

Factor Input, Resource Management and Process Performance of Forestry Ecological Project:An Empirical Analysis Based on Grey Input-output System of Natural Forest Protection Program

Different from the general projects, forestry ecological projects show the typical relational features of Grey System information incompleteness, which occur between the factor inputs, resource management and project performance. This information incompleteness brings a series of severe challenges to the forestry ecological projects in terms of the decisions optimization, the process control enhancement and the process performance improvement. Taking Natural Forest Protection Program as an example, the paper built the input-output model, the mediation model and benefit interaction model based on the theoretic analysis of the grey features of the input-output system by using grey system methodology and tools, with which the interactions between the factor inputs, resource management and project performance were observed. It verified the mesomeric effect of resources management variables in the input-output system, and confirmed the internal relations between the ecological, economical and social benefits, which showed that the grey input-output system of forestry ecological projects generally achieved the objectives of whitening. Based on the empirical study results, it finally put forward the instructive suggestions from the theoretical and practical perspectives, which was aimed at improving the national forestry ecological projects design and implementation.