SCMOC在德州区域的检验及误差分析

本文收集处理了2014年9月到2015年9月一年的国家精细化指导预报资料(以下简称SCMOC)；利用德州11个县市区的实况资料对其20点起报的日最低气温、日最高气温、晴雨、一般性降水,逐日3h预报气温进行对比分析,检验预报质量。通过研究发现：日最低气温质量较好,不需订正,日最高气温预报质量较差,无直接参考价值需订正,二者都具有明显季节变化特征；通过误差分析探索了误差特点,算出平均绝对误差；逐3h气温预报有明显的日变化以及季节变化特征；一般性降水预报质量不稳定,其中的48h预报质量高于24小时预报质量,降水预报空报率较高。通过研究总结要素误差特点为今后提高预报准确率提供参考。

VERIFICATION AND ERROR ANALYSIS OF SCMOC IN DEZHOU AREA

Collecting and processing SCMOC from September 2014 to September 2015. According to Comparing the forecast minimum temperature, maximum temperature, shine, the general precipitation, 3h temperature with the actual situation of 11 counties in DeZhou to Inspection forecast quality. The results showed that Daily minimum temperature can direct reference because of the quality is better, The daily maximum temperature forecast is poor quality, maximum and minimum Have obvious seasonal variation characteristics, through error analysis to explore the characteristics of the error and calculating Average absolute error, 3h temperature prediction has obvious diurnal variation and seasonal variation general; precipitation forecast quality is not stable, which The 48h forecast quality is higher than the 24-hour forecast quality, precipitation forecast vacancy rate higher. Through studying the meteorological element error characteristic to make As a reference for Improving the accuracy of future forecasts.