| PRECIS模式模拟陕西未来干旱变化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 李明娟,赵奎锋.PRECIS模式模拟陕西未来干旱变化趋势[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(15):9073-9076. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李明娟 赵奎锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西省气象台;陕西省气象局; |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]预测陕西未来干旱变化趋势。方法]利用英国Hadley气候中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS,以降水量距平百分率为评价指标,模拟了气候基准时段（1971～1990年）陕西干旱变化趋势,并预测了陕西2071～2100年的干旱变化趋势。结果]气候基准时段陕西干旱频次模拟值很好地模拟出了干旱北多南少的分布格局;未来陕西全省2级以上干旱年均发生频次自北向南逐渐减少,陕北北部最多（大于4次）,陕南南部最少（小于2.5次）;陕北榆林南部以南到延安全市、关中东部（含渭北）以及陕南西部未来干旱频次有所减少,而陕北北部、关中西部秦岭地区和商洛地区有所增加。结论]该研究为陕西未来干旱变化的研究提供了理论参考。
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| 关 键 词： | PRECIS 干旱 变化趋势 陕西 |
Simulation of Drought Change Trend in Shaanxi Province in the Future Based on PRECIS |
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| LI Ming-juan et al.Simulation of Drought Change Trend in Shaanxi Province in the Future Based on PRECIS[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2011,39(15):9073-9076. |
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| Authors: | LI Ming-juan |
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| Institution: | LI Ming-juan et al(Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710015) |
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| Abstract: | Objective] The aim was to predict the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in the future.Method] Based on the regional climate model PRECIS from English Hadley Climate Center,taking precipitation anomaly percentage as assessment index,the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in reference years(1971-1990) was simulated,and then the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province from 2071 to 2100 was predicted.Result] The simulated value of drought frequency in reference years could simulate the... |
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| Keywords: | PRECIS Drought Change trend Shaanxi |
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