基于切比雪夫理论的保定市水资源承载力研究

在分析保定市2006—2010年农业、环境、经济、人口、水资源等基本情况的基础上，选取水资源可承载的GDP最大、人口最多和污水排放量最小为研究目标，建立了基于切比雪夫理论的水资源承载力多目标优化模型，利用上述模型对保定市2015年和2025年的水资源承载力进行预测分析。结果表明：要使保定市水资源适应高速发展的经济形势仍需走“开源节流”、“节流优先”之路，提高农业水、工业水利用率及城镇居民生活节水水平等是提高保定市水资源承载力的根本，污水回用、中水回用、雨水利用及跨流域调水等开源措施是有力的补充。

Analysis on water resources carrying capacity based on Tchebycheff theory in Baoding

Based on analysis of the basic instance such as agriculture， environment， economy， population and water resources in Baoding from 2006 to 2010， the maximum gross domestic product （GDP），the maximum amount of population and the least sewage discharge were adopt as studying targets and the multi-objective optimization model of water resources carrying capacity was established base on Tchebycheff theory. The above-mentioned model was used to forecast water resources carrying capacity of programming years （the year of 2015 and 2025）. The results showed that increasing income and reducing expenditure of water resources was also the only way to adapt to the rapid economic situation. The measures of improving the utilizing efficiency of agricultural and industrial water and economize water level of town dwellers were the basic method while the measures of utilizing circulating sewage， medium water， rain water and inter-basin water transfer projects were the powerful supplement.