天山北坡县域现代农业发展水平的差异研究

为了研究新疆县域现代农业的发展水平及地区差异,以其现代农业最发达的天山北坡13个县(市)作为研究单位,以10项指标作为分析因子,采用因子分析法和聚类分析法建立了其现代农业发展水平综合得分的回归模型,在此基础上使用综合因子得分对各县现代农业发展水平进行了综合评价,并利用ARCGIS 10.0软件绘制了这13个县(市)的综合发展水平空间分异图.结果表明:影响现代农业发展水平的主要有投入产出因子、生活现代化因子和生态因子,其中,投入产出因子在衡量天山北坡现代农业发展水平中发挥着决定作用,其方差贡献率达47.22％；将天山北坡各县现代农业发展水平分为发达、较发达、欠发达、不发达四类,且根据综合得分情况得知,天山北坡各县现代农业发展极不均衡,有54％的县(市)处于研究区平均发展水平之下；天山北坡各县现代农业发展水平差异显著,呈现出由中心向两边递减的“凸”字型空间格局.

Study on Differences of Modern Agriculture Development in Country Area of Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains

This article is mainly study the development of modern agriculture and regional differences in country area in Xinjiang. By using 13 counties (cities) as research unit, which are the most developed areas on modern agriculture in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, and using 10 indicators as an analysis factor, this thesis established comprehensive score regression model of modern agriculture development level based on factor analysis and cluster analysis. Under this analysis, the author made a comprehensive evaluation on modern agriculture development level of each county by using comprehensive factor score and draws a spatial variation map of the 13 counties (cities) on its comprehensive development level with the help of ARCGIS 10.0 software. The result showed that, the factors which mainly affected the development level of modern agriculture included: input-output factor, modern life factor and ecological factor, among which, input-output factor played a decisive role and its variance contribution rate reached to 47.22%. The result divided agriculture level of the researched area into four groups: developed regions, more developed regions, underdeveloped regions and undeveloped regions. And based on the composite score we could know that, agriculture level was not balanced in those regions, 54% of counties (cities) were under the average level; there were significant differences on the development level in those areas, decreasing from the center to two sides, which showed a convex space pattern.