1981-2009年江苏省气候变化趋势及其对水稻产量的影响

利用江苏省1981-2009年7个农业气象站点的气象和水稻物候、产量资料,从平均气温和降水量对水稻产量影响的基本方程入手,定义了平均气温和降水量变化趋势对水稻产量趋势的贡献率,揭示江苏省近30a气候变化趋势对水稻产量的影响.结果表明,近30a来,江苏省水稻全生育期平均气温和最低气温呈上升趋势,最高气温的变化在苏南和苏北地区差异较大,尤其在开花-成熟阶段,苏南地区呈上升趋势,而苏北地区则呈相反变化趋势.气温(包括平均气温、最低气温和最高气温)与水稻产量呈正相关,1981-2009年平均气温升高对江苏省水稻产量影响的平均值约为1.2％,对产量趋势的贡献率约为30.0％.降水量的变化趋势不明显,降水量与水稻产量的相关性亦不显著,说明在研究区内降水量的变化对水稻产量的影响较小.总体上,江苏省近30a气候变化有利于水稻生产.

Trends in Climate and Their Effects on Rice Yields in Jiangsu Province from 1981 to 2009

Based on the data of climate and observations data at seven agro-meteorological stations of Jiangsu province during 1981 to 2009, authors investigated the effects of climate change on rice yields in Jiangsu province by the basic equation of mean temperature and precipitation influence to the rice yield and defining the contribution rate of the mean temperature and precipitation trend on rice yield trend. The results showed that the mean temperature and minimum temperature had an increasing trend during the whole rice growth season in Jiangsu province, but maximum temperature in southern and northern Jiangsu had a different trend for the last 30 years, which had an increasing trend in southern part and a decreasing trend in northern part from flowering to maturing. The relationship between temperature （including mean temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature） and rice production was positive, and the warming trend increased rice yield by about 1.2%, and the contribution rate to yield trend accounted for 30. 0% during 1981 to 2009. Trend in precipitation was not obvious, increased slightly in the northern part while decreased slightly in the southern part. The relationship between precipitation and rice yields was not obvious either, so the effects of the precipitation trends on rice yields were small. In general, rice productivity in Jiangsu province benefited from climate change during the last 30 years.