基于灰色系统及趋势测算的有效耕地面积计算方法

目前，中国很多地区调查统计的耕地面积并不是的有效耕地面积，其中存在大量小地物的干扰。该文拟通过数理分析，扣除耕地面积中的小地物面积，探索科学合理地计算有效耕地面积的方法，结合RS和GIS相关技术，建立灰色系统GM(1,1)模型以及相关趋势外推模型测算所有非耕地面积，并从区域总面积中予以扣除得到有效耕地面积，进而以北京市顺义区为例分析论证此方法的可行性。从而在不需要耗费大量人力、物力和财力进行抽样调查的基础上，简单方便地计算出有效耕地面积，这对有效耕地面积的计算、研究具有一定的参考价值。

Calculating method of effective area of arable land based on fuzzy and trend prediction model

The areas of arable lands in most statistical surveys in China today are not the effective areas of arable lands. It contains the areas of many small land features. This paper presented a mathematic analysys method to compute the effective area of arable lands by deducting the area of small land features from the statistical data on the area of arable lands. The method integrated the relevant remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) technologies with a fuzzy GM (1, 1) model and a prediction model. Once the area of non-cultivatable small land features was calculated by the model, the effective area of arable lands was then computed by subtracting the calculated area of those land features from the total area of the arable lands. The method was empirically applied in Shunyi disdtrict, Beijing to test its applicability. The case study results indicated the method was effective with minimum labor, material and financial costs, and can be easily applied to other regions to calculate the effective area of the arable lands.