The Potential Effect of Climate Change and Elevated Air Carbon Dioxide on Agricultural Crop Production in Central and Southeastern Europe

SUMMARY

The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to different soils in Austria and Bulgaria under a changing climate and elevated air CO₂ were investigated. Several incremental and transient GCM climate change scenarios were created and applied. Warming will decrease the crop-growing duration of the selected crops in the regions of interest. All GCM scenarios, including the climate change effect only, projected reductions in grain yield of winter wheat and spring barley, caused by a shorter crop-growing period. However, when the direct effect of an increased CO₂ level was assumed, most GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in wheat and barley yield and especially in soybean yield. An increased level of CO₂ alone had no significant impact on the simulated maize yield reductions under climate change.