顾及数据不完备性的农作物救灾效益评估模型与应用

从灾后挽回农作物产量的救灾措施所涉及的投入与产出入手,以救灾投入的人工、种子、农药、排灌、畜力、化肥、农业机械等作为投入项;以减少的损失或抢收、补种(或补救)、改种的预期收益作为收益项,分析了农作物灾后的救灾效益,建立了救灾效益评估基本模型。顾及评估数据不完备性以及评估结果所要求的时效性不同,建立了不同数据状态下的救灾效益评估模型,即农作物救灾效益不完备评估模型与完备评估模型。从不完备评估模型到完备评估模型的演变,涵盖了快速评估和综合评估,可满足不同的评估时效性及精确性要求,为灾后农作物的救灾决策、农业生产恢复决策提供参考。

Benefit Evaluation Models for Disaster Relief to Crops Considering Data Incompleteness and Its Applications

This paper departs from the analysis of inputs and outputs involved in post disaster relief measures to salvage crop yields, and then studies the benefits of post crop disaster alleviation and establishes basic evaluation models for the effects of such disaster relief measures, incorporating the manpower, seeds, agricultural chemicals, drainage and irrigation, energy storage, chemical fertilizer and farm machinery contributed into disaster relief activities as input variables, and the reduced losses or expected return from rush harvesting, emergency cropping (or salvage cropping) and replanting as the output (or return) variables. According to the statistical incompleteness and required time efficiency of evaluation results, the paper establishes evaluation models for the effects of disaster relief under various statistical states, namely the incomplete evaluation model for effects of disaster relief effects and complete evaluation model for effects of disaster relief effects. The evolution from the incomplete evaluation model to the complete evaluation model covers quick appraisal and comprehensive evaluation, which could satisfy the different requirements on time efficiency and accuracy and thus provides a critical reference for decisions on post crop disaster relief and restoration of agricultural production.