长三角地区碳排放量分析及预测

在“双碳”背景下,控制碳排放量对可持续发展具有重要意义。为精确测量经济发展中,各影响因素对碳排放量的影响,以长三角地区为例,将灰色回归组合模型应用于碳排放量的预测,选取了第一产业生产总值、第二产业生产总值、第三产业生产总值和能源消耗量4个主要影响因素构建影响因素指标体系,分析各影响因素与碳排放量之间的灰色关联关系,通过对2005—2021年长三角地区碳排放量进行建模,建立各影响因素为自变量的回归预测模型,对2023—2025年长三角地区碳排放量进行了预测。实证结果表明：未来三年长三角地区碳排放量仍具有明显的上升趋势,增速在4%～10%左右,持续的高碳排放量对可持续发展产生深远影响。基于关联分析和预测模型结果,提出通过加快产业转型、提高清洁能源的使用等方式减少碳排放量,促进长三角地区绿色低碳发展。

Analysis and forecast of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region

In the context of "dual carbon", controlling carbon emissions is of great significance for sustainable development. In order to accurately measure the impact of various influencing factors on carbon emissions in economic development, this paper took the Yangtze River Delta region as an example, applied the gray regression combination model to the prediction of carbon emissions, selected four main influencing factors of gross domestic product of primary industry, gross domestic product of secondary industry, gross domestic product of tertiary industry and energy consumption to construct an index system of influencing factors, analyzed the gray correlation between each influencing factor and carbon emissions, and modelled the carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005 to 2021. A regression prediction model with each influencing factor as an independent variable was established to predict the carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2023 to 2025. The empirical results showed that the carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region will still have a significant upward trend in the next three years, with a growth rate of about 4%-10%, and the continuous high carbon emissions will have a profound impact on sustainable development. Based on the results of correlation analysis and prediction model, it was proposed to reduce carbon emissions and promote the green and low-carbon development of the Yangtze River Delta region by accelerating industrial transformation and increasing the use of clean energy, so as to promote the green and low-carbon development of the Yangtze River Delta region.