杭州地区地下害虫成虫发生规律及其预测模型研究

为提高地下害虫预测预报和持续控害水平，采用测报灯诱集的方法， 对2005—2011年杭州地区小地老虎、蝼蛄、金龟子成虫的灯下诱虫量和田间发生进行调查。结果表明，不同地下害虫的田间种群年内消长规律差异明显：小地老虎有多个为害高峰，分别发生在5月下旬、6月下旬和7月下旬，但前期的蛾量相对较高；蝼蛄有2个明显的为害高峰，分别发生在5月下旬至7月上旬和9月上旬至10月中下旬2个时段；金龟子有一个为害高峰，发生在5月下旬至6月下旬。地下害虫的总虫量年度间也呈现一定的周期性变化，高峰分别出现在2005年、2007—2009年和2011年。在此基础上，以温度、湿度、雨量、光照等气象资料作为预测因子，采用逐步回归法进行拟合，共筛选出了具有显著相关性的19个因子进入回归模型，分别建立了这3种害虫的发生期和发生量预测预报模型。用应验程度判定模式进行验证，这3 种地下害虫的发生期和发生量预测模型的评分值分别达到58分和70 分以上，说明建立的预测模型历史符合率和预测准确度比较好。

Study on the occurrence regularity and prediction model of underground pest adults in Hangzhou district

For improving forecasting and sustained control damage level， light trap numbers and field dynamic of underground pests (black cutworm， mole cricket and scarab beetle) in Hangzhou district during the years of 2005 to 2011 were investigated The results showed that different pests had obvious differences in population dynamic The black cutworm， Agrotis ypsilon， had several damage peaks (late May， late June and late July etc)， and the moth amount of the prophase was relatively high The mole cricket， Gryllotalpa africana， had two damage peaks (late May to early July， early September to middle late October) The scarab beetle， Anomala corpulenta， had one damage peak (late May to late June) There were periodic changes in total numbers of underground insect pests among years， and the peak period was the year of 2005， 2007 to 2009 and 2011， respectively On this basis， temperature， humidity， precipitation， illumination etc were used as forecasting factors， using the method of stepwise regression， nineteen factors with significant correlation were screened， and occurrence amount forecasting models and occurrence period forecasting models of the three insects were established By using accuracy degree judge model for verification， the score values of occurrence amount and occurrence period forecasting models of the three underground pests were more than 58 and 70， which indicated that the historical coincident rate and prediction accuracy of established forecasting models were good.