环渤海地区碳排放演进特征及其影响因素

基于kaya公式分析环渤海地区2000--2010年碳排放演进特征，并对碳排放影响因素进行分解．结果发现：环渤海地区碳排放量大致呈现持续均匀的增长趋势，碳排放主要受能源结构、碳排放系数、能源强度、产业结构、经济规模5个因素影响，其中经济规模、能源结构、产业结构对碳排放量起促进作用，能源强度对碳排放起抑制作用，经济规模对碳排放起决定性作用．结合研究结果和区域实际情况提出了有关碳减排的政策性建议．

Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Emissions and Its Influencing Factors in Circum-Bohai Sea Region

Based on the kaya formula, the evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from 2000 to 2010 in Bohai area is analyzed, and the affecting factors on carbon emissions has been decomposed. The results showed that carbon emission in the circum-bohai sea region is continuous growth trend. The carbon emission is mainly affected by the energy structure, carbon emission coefficient, energy intensity, industrial structure, economic scale. The economic scale, energy structure, industrial structure had been promoting effect on carbon emissions, while energy intensity have inhibitory effect on carbon emissions. In addition, economies of scale has a decisive effect on carbon emissions. Combined with the research results and the current circumstance of region, relative carbon reduction suggestions are put forward.