环县农户肉羊养殖意愿影响因素分析

本文基于环县五个乡镇的调研数据，结合环县肉羊发展现状，运用二元Logit模型对农户养殖意愿的影响因素进行实证分析，结果表明：劳动力人数、是否有充足的饲草料、自然环境、养殖年限、肉羊品种、政府补贴和肉羊价格对农户养殖意愿有显著的正向影响，其中劳动力人数、自然因素、肉羊品种和肉羊价格对农户养殖意愿影响最为显著。疫病风险对农户养殖意愿有显著负向影响。最后提出政府应增加牧草产量保险，提升农户在销售过程中的话语权和议价能力，提高农户养殖意识，鼓励发展新型养殖户等相关建议，希望使更多农户参与肉羊养殖产业，促进农户增产增收，推进环县肉羊产业现代化发展。

Analysis on influencing factors of farmers' willingness to mutton sheep breeding in Huanxian County

Abstract: Based on the survey data of five towns and villages in Huanxian County, combined with the development status of mutton sheep in Huanxian County, this paper used the binary Logit model to conduct an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of farmers'' breeding willingness. The results showed that: The number of labor force, whether there is sufficient forage, natural environment, breeding years, mutton sheep breed, government subsidies and mutton sheep price have a significant positive impact on farmers'' breeding willingness, among which the number of labor force, natural factors, mutton sheep breed and mutton sheep price have the most significant impact on farmers'' breeding willingness. Disease risk had a significant negative effect on farmers'' breeding willingness. Finally, the paper proposed that the government should strengthen the insurance subsidies for forage grass, enhance the discourse power and bargaining power of farmers in the sales process, improve farmers'' awareness of breeding and other relevant suggestions, hoping to make more farmers participate in the mutton sheep breeding industry, promote farmers to increase production and income, and promote the modernization development of the mutton sheep industry in Huanxian County.