气候变化下子午沙鼠在中国的潜在分布分析

为探究气候变化下子午沙鼠在中国的潜在分布和时空变化，本研究利用子午沙鼠分布数据以及气候、地形等环境数据，基于最大熵模型(The maximum entropy，MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(Geographic information System，GIS)技术，分析大空间尺度上限制子午沙鼠地理分布的主导环境因子。结果表明：当前气候下子午沙鼠高适生区主要分布在甘肃河西走廊、内蒙古西南部、宁夏北部，以及新疆塔里木盆地和天山山脉之间、伊犁州和塔城等地区，中适生区主要分布在甘肃酒泉的北部，内蒙古西北部，青海中部以及新疆的大部分地区；温度是限制子午沙鼠分布的主导气候因子，其次是海拔，降水量也有一定影响。随着全球气候变暖，子午沙鼠生境适宜度提高，在中国的潜在分布范围将扩大。本研究对子午沙鼠危害监测预警和精准防控具有重要的指导意义。

Analysis of the Potential Distribution of Meriones meridianus in China under Climate Change

In order to explore the potential distribution and spatial and temporal changes of Meriones meridianus in China under climate change,this study analyzed the dominant environmental factors that limited the geographical distribution of the Meriones meridianus at large spatial scales using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and Geographic information system (GIS) technology. The results showed that the high fitness zone of Meriones meridianus was mainly located in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu,southwestern Inner Mongolia,northern Ningxia,and between the Tarim Basin and the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang,Ili Prefecture and Tacheng,while the middle fitness zone was mainly located in the northern part of Jiuquan in Gansu,northwestern Inner Mongolia,central Qinghai,and most of Xinjiang under the current climate. Temperature was the dominant climatic factor limiting the distribution of the Meriones meridianus,followed by altitude and precipitation. The potential distribution range of Meriones meridianus will be expanded with the global warming in China. The study is of great significance for monitoring and early warning and accurate prevention and control of the Meriones meridianus damage.