陕西省耕地压力时空演变及驱动因素研究

在复杂的国际形势和新冠病毒为社会带来严峻考验的背景下，我国的粮食安全问题显得更为重要。陕西省是西北地区农业生产的重要基地，探索分析其耕地压力时空演变特征与驱动因素，对区域耕地资源有效利用与粮食安全保障有重要意义。基于陕西省1995—2019年耕地数量和分布情况，对最小人均耕地面积Smin与耕地压力指数P进行测算，对传统差异指数进行整合，建立总体分异测度指数GDI，引用重心移动模型和总体分异测度指数GDI描述区域内耕地压力的时空变化特征，并借用灰色关联分析法对耕地压力变动的驱动因素进行分析与探讨。结果表明：1995—2019年陕西省耕地面积总体呈先下降后上升的趋势；耕地压力指数整体呈下降趋势，但变化幅度较小，仍长期处在“警戒压力”水平；陕西省耕地压力重心在关中地区，先向北偏西移动，之后逐年向南推移；陕西省耕地压力空间分异情况2003年之前不明显，且状态相对平稳，2003年之后分化格局日趋明显；1995—2019年无霜期情况、降水情况、粮食单产量、化肥使用、农村居民收入、城镇居民收入、经济发展水平、工业水平对陕西省耕地压力存在不同程度的影响作用。

Spatial temporal evolution and driving factors of cultivated land pressure in Shaanxi Province

In the context of the complex international situation and novel Coronavirus pandemic, the issue of food security in China has become more important. Shaanxi province is an important agricultural production base in northwest China. It is of great significance to explore and analyze the spatial temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of cultivated land pressure in Shaanxi Province. This study is based on the number and distribution situation of cultivated land from 1995 to 2019 in Shaanxi, the minimum area of cultivated land per capita Smin and cultivated land pressure index P measure, to integrate the traditional difference index, establish the overall differentiation measure index of GDI, reference gravity mobile model and overall differentiation measure index of GDI describe the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of cultivated land pressure in the area. The driving factors of cultivated land pressure change were analyzed and discussed by using grey correlation analysis method. The results showed that the cultivated land area in Shaanxi province decreased firstly and then increased from 1995 to 2019. The cultivated land pressure index showed a downward trend, and remained at the level of “warning pressure” for a long time, with a small variation range. The center of cultivated land pressure in Shaanxi province was located in Guanzhong area, and moved northwestward first, then southward year by year. The spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in Shaanxi province was not obvious before 2003, and the state was relatively stable, and the differentiation pattern became more and more obvious after 2003. Frost free period, precipitation, grain yield per unit, fertilizer use, income of rural residents, income of urban residents, economic development level and industrial level had significant effects on cultivated land pressure in Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2019.