基于耕地压力指数的江苏省粮食安全状况预测

随着经济、社会的发展,江苏省耕地资源日益紧张、粮食安全岌岌可危。以江苏省1999-2014年人均耕地面积、粮食产量、粮食自给率、粮作比、复种指数等数据为基础,分析江苏省耕地压力指数动态变化趋势;同时借助Matlab 7.0及SPSS 19.0软件,运用灰色预测模型、曲线估计、线性回归等方法对各变量分别进行预测模型拟合。结果表明,江苏省2020和2025年耕地压力指数均大于1,达到了警戒线。最后从保障耕地面积、提高粮食单产、合理控制人口增长、培育种粮市场4个方面提出了保障粮食安全的对策与建议,以期为江苏省制定粮食安全与耕地保护政策提供参考。

Prediction of Food Security Situation in Jiangsu Province Based on Cultivated Land Pressure Index

With the development of economy and society, the arable land resources in Jiangsu province is becoming scarce increasingly, food security is at stake. Taking the 1999-2014 data including per capita arable land area, food production, self-sufficiency rate of grain and grain measure, multiple crop index in Jiangsu province as foundation, the dynamic changing trend of cultivated land pressure index in Jiangsu province was analyzed. Meanwhile, with the help of Matlab 7.0 and SPSS 19.0 software, each variable was predicted and fitted separately with grey prediction model and linear regression forecast model. The results showed that the cultivated land pressure index from 2020 to 2025 was all higher than one in Jiangsu province and up to the cordon. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions for the guarantee of food security were put for-ward from four aspects including the protection of cultivated land area, increasing the per unit area yield of grain, reasonably controlling population growth, cultivating grain market, in order to provide reference for policymaking of food security and cultivated land protection in Jiangsu province.