社会转型期县域耕地需求量组合研究

21世纪处于社会高速转型期，县域耕地需求量的预测是否合理关系到区域和全局的耕地保护压力程度。以夹江县为例，利用粮食安全法、GM (1，1)模型和时间序列预测法对夹江县的耕地需求量进行预测，结合县域的自然、社会经济实际状况及土地利用现状，应用层次分析法对3种预测结果赋予权重，最后用固定权系数预测夹江县的耕地需求量。研究结果表明：2020年耕地需求量14 49359 hm2，2030年为14 28945 hm2，该方法综合了自然、社会经济因素，准确地研究了目标年耕地资源的需求。

Study on the combination of county cultivated land demand in social transformation period

The twenty\|first century was in the rapid social transformation period. Whether the forecast on the county cultivated land demand was reasonable or not was related to the degrees of regional and global cultivated land protection pressure. Taking Jiajiang County as an example， the food safety law， GM(1， 1) model and time series forecasting method were used to forecast the cultivated land demand for Jiajiang County. And then combining the natural， economic and social situation， as well as the present land utilization situation， three kinds of prediction results were endowed with weights by means of AHP method， finally cultivated land demand in Jiajiang County was calculated by using fixed weight coefficient prediction. The results showed that the demand for cultivated land in 2020 and 2030 would be 14 49359 and 14 28945 hm2. The method could accurately investigate the demand for cultivated land in a certain year， taking natural， social， economic factors into account.