桂花盛花期预报方法初探

利用柳州市近10 a(1995~2005年)9月上、中、下旬的平均温度、降水量,降雨日数、平均最低温度、平均湿度以及桂花盛花期的物候资料,采用逐步回归法分析各气象因子对桂花花期的影响,结果表明,影响桂花盛花期的主要气象因子是9月中旬平均气温9、月中旬平均最低气温与9月上旬平均最低气温,建立桂花盛花期预测模型,并对1995~2005年桂花盛花期出现日期进行回测,结果表明预测模型回测准确率高,可用于指导柳州市桂花花期的预报。

Preliminary Research on the Prediction of Osmanthus Fragrans Full Flowering Stage

Factors affecting the osmanthus fragrans full flowering stage were studied on the basis of average temperature,rainfall,number of rain day,average minimum temperature and average relative humidity from the ten days to the last ten days of September during 1995 to 2005 with the stepwise regression.The results showed that the key factor affecting the osmanthus fragrans flowering were average temperature of the second decade of September,average minimum temperature of the second decade of September and average minimum temperature of the last decade of September.A predictive model was set up and was tested with the data from 1995 to 2005,the result indicated that the model had a highly accurate ratio,which can be used to guide the prediction of Osmanthus Fragrans flowering in Liuzhou.