Features of the AFFRC model for evaluating the relationship between the water cycle and rice production |
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Authors: | Michiko Hayano Naoki Horikawa Tsuneo Kuwagata Jun Furuya Yasushi Ishigooka Toshihiro Hasegawa Tomoyuki Taniguchi Akira Shimizu Hitoshi Toritani Minoru Tada Takao Masumoto |
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Institution: | (1) National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba 305-8604, Japan;(2) National Institute for Rural Engineering, 2-1-6 Kannondai, Tsukuba 305-8609, Japan;(3) Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1-1 Ohwashi, Tsukuba 305-8686, Japan;(4) Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba 305-8687, Japan |
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Abstract: | This paper introduces the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Council of Japan (AFFRC) model, an integrated model
that predicts future rice production in the Mekong River basin by taking into account the effect of global warming on both
the water cycle and the rice economy. The model focuses especially on the water balance of paddy fields for different farmland
water use systems. We defined six categories of irrigated paddies and three categories of rain-fed paddies on the basis of
their systems of water usage. We included a process-based model to predict future rice production, accounting for daily changes
in available water resources such as precipitation. Many models of crop production treat rice in the same way as other crops;
the particular characteristics of rice farming are considered in more detail in our model. Our results show that it is possible
to estimate future rice production in the Mekong River basin by taking into account changes in available water, and to model
the resultant effects on the grain market. |
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Keywords: | Rice production Rain-fed paddies Irrigated paddies Economic activities Water cycle changes Monsoon Asia Mekong River basin |
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