Selecting cotton yield response function to estimate profit-maximizing potassium fertilization rates for cotton production in Tennessee

Recent research has shown that stochastic yield response functions fit data better than deterministic yield response functions; however, little research exists comparing profit-maximizing fertilizer rates for upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) using stochastic and deterministic yield response functions. The objective of this research was to determine the most appropriate yield response functional form from which to determine the profit-maximizing potassium (K) rate for cotton in Tennessee. Data were used from a nine-year K fertilizer experiment in Jackson, Tennessee. Quadratic, quadratic-plus-plateau, linear response plateau, and linear response stochastic plateau response functions were estimated to determine the yield response function that best fit the data. The linear response stochastic plateau function was the most suitable yield response function for the data. The profit-maximizing K rate ranged from 65.2 to 74.3 kg K ha^?1. Misspecification of the yield response function recommended over-application of K fertilizer and decreased the producer's short-term profits.     

中国粮食生产中化肥过量施用评价及影响因素研究

通过大量施用化肥获得高产是当前中国粮食生产中比较普遍的现象。基于2004-2013年省级农成品成本收益面板数据,对我国三种主要粮食作物生产中的化肥过量施用程度进行测算,并实证分析造成化肥施用过量的原因。结果表明,目前中国粮食生产中的化肥施用量已经超过了其经济意义上的最优施用量,无论是小麦、水稻还是玉米均存在过量施肥的现象;玉米生产中的过量施肥程度平均达到50.74%;小麦和水稻生产中的过量施肥程度相对较轻,分别为27.26%和24.67%。农业劳动力非农转移、自然灾害和上一年粮食价格对农户化肥过量施用具有显著正向影响,当前"咨询与经营相结合"的农技推广体系也在一定程度上导致了农户对化肥的过量施用;而适当扩大粮食种植规模则有助于缓解化肥过量施用。为促进化肥减量施用,除应用技术上的手段外,还应当重视社会经济的调控作用。例如,对当前大规模的农业劳动力非农转移进行适当干预;推进基层农业技术推广机构改革,改变目前"咨询与经营相结合"的农技推广体系;发展农业保险,提高农户的自然风险抵抗能力等。