A semi-empirical model to assess uncertainty of spatial patterns of erosion

Distributed erosion models are potentially good tools for locating soil sediment sources and guiding efficient Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) planning, but the uncertainty of model predictions may be high. In this study, the distribution of erosion within a catchment was predicted with a semi-empirical erosion model that combined a semi-distributed hydrological model with the Morgan, Morgan and Finney (MMF) empirical erosion model. The model was tested in a small catchment of the West Usambara Mountains (Kwalei catchment, Tanzania). Soil detachability rates measured in splash cups (0.48–1.16 g J^− 1) were close to model simulations (0.30–0.35 g J^− 1). Net erosion rates measured in Gerlach troughs (0.01–1.05 kg m^− 2 per event) were used to calibrate the sediment transport capacity of overland flow. Uncertainties of model simulations due to parameterisation of overland flow sediment transport capacity were assessed with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The quality of the spatial predictions was assessed by comparing the simulated erosion pattern with the field-observed erosion pattern, measuring the agreement with the weighted Kappa coefficient of the contingency table. Behavioural parameter sets (weighted Kappa > 0.50) were those with short reinfiltration length (< 1.5 m) and ratio of overland flow power α to local topography power γ close to 0.5. In the dynamic Hortonian hydrologic regime and the dissected terrain of Kwalei catchment, topography controlled the distribution of erosion more than overland flow. Simulated erosion rates varied from − 4 to + 2 kg m^− 2 per season. The model simulated correctly around 75% of erosion pattern. The uncertainty of model predictions due to sediment transport capacity was high; around 10% of the fields were attributed to either slight or severe erosion. The difficult characterisation of catchment-scale effective sediment transport capacity parameters poses a major limit to distributed erosion modelling predicting capabilities.     

Influence of likelihood function choice for estimating crop model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method

Proper estimation of model parameters is required for ensuring accurate model predictions and good model-based decisions. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method is a Bayesian Monte Carlo parameter estimation technique that makes use of a likelihood function to measure the closeness-of-fit of modeled and observed data. Various likelihood functions and methods of combining likelihood values have been used in previous studies. This research was conducted to determine the effects of using previously reported likelihood functions in a GLUE procedure for estimating parameters in a widely-used crop simulation model. A factorial computer experiment was conducted with synthetic measurement data to compare four likelihood functions and three methods of combining likelihood values using the CERES-Maize model of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). The procedure used an arbitrarily-selected parameter set as the known “true parameter set” and the CERES-Maize model to generate true output values. Then synthetic observations of crop variables were randomly generated (four replicates) by using the simulated true output values (dry yield, anthesis date, maturity date, leaf nitrogen concentration, soil nitrate concentration, and soil moisture) and adding a random observation error based on the variances of corresponding field measurements. The environmental conditions were obtained from a sweet corn (Zea mays L.) experiment conducted in 2005 in northern Florida. Results showed that the method of combining likelihood values had a strong influence on parameter estimates. The combination method based on the product of the likelihoods associated with each set of observations reduced the uncertainties in posterior distributions of parameter estimates most significantly. It was also found that the likelihood function based on Gaussian probability density function was the best among those tested. This combination accurately estimated the true parameter values, suggesting that it can be used when estimating CERES-Maize model parameters for real experiments.     

基于GLUE方法的植被界面过程模型(VIP)的不确定性分析

生态系统模型一般参数较多,且在应用时存在时空尺度问题,易产生不确定性。通过模型不确定性分析,可以加深对模型结构的理解,提高模型预报的可靠性。植被界面过程模型(VIP)是一个综合考虑了陆地生态系统能量收支、水文循环和碳氮等生命元素吸收转化等过程的生态/水文动力学模型。本文采用GLUE(General-ized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)方法,以拟合度系数作为似然判据,利用华北平原冬小麦生长季内的田间观测数据分析VIP模型中的作物生长、土壤水分运动以及光合速率模块中8个参数以及模型预报的不确定性。研究表明,最大光合速率Vmax、饱和含水量wcsat、田间持水量wcfield参数为敏感性参数,其对似然判据的影响大,其余参数是相对不敏感参数。在置信度为95%水平下,发现观测值大都接近或者包含在置信预报区域内,说明可以通过参数校准得到很好的模型模拟效果。     

基于GLUE和PEST的CERES-Maize模型调参与验证研究

作物模型已逐渐成为干旱和半干旱地区优化农田水肥管理和实施节水灌溉的有力决策支持工具。为了探讨CERES-Maize模型模拟不同生育期受旱情况下夏玉米的生长发育、产量形成和土壤水分状况的模拟精度,进行了2013和2014年连续两季夏玉米田间分段受旱试验。试验将夏玉米整个生育期划分为苗期、拔节、抽雄和灌浆4个主要生长阶段,采用单个生育期受旱其他生育期灌水的方式,形成4个不同的受旱时段水平(D1~D4),又根据夏玉米多年生育期降雨量,设置了70和110 mm两个灌水水平(I1和I2),共形成8个处理,每个处理3次重复,在遮雨棚内按照裂区试验布设,此外设置1个各生育期均灌水110 mm的对照处理(CK)。利用两年试验数据,采用DSSAT-GLUE和PEST两种不同的模型参数估计工具,对CERES-Maize模型的遗传参数进行估计,并对该模型的模拟精度和可靠性进行验证,此外还使用交叉验证法对CERES-Maize模型的整体模拟精度进行评估。结果表明,GLUE和PEST两种调参工具所得的模型参数均有较好的稳定性和收敛性,但PEST调参工具耗时较少,效率较高;CERES-Maize模型能较好地模拟充分灌水条件下夏玉米的生长发育、产量和土壤水分变化,绝对相对误差(ARE)和相对均方根误差(RRMSE)均在6%~8%之间;但是现有CERES-Maize模型无法模拟由于不同生育期受旱造成的夏玉米物候期的差异。此外,交叉验证结果发现夏玉米生长前期(特别是拔节期)受旱处理的数据参与模型校正时,模型的总体平均模拟误差较大,精度较低。CERES-Maize模型模拟前期受旱对玉米籽粒产量的影响时结果不够准确,这可能是由于该模型低估了早期水分胁迫条件下的LAI值,进而使得ET模拟不准确所造成的。总之,CERES-Maize模型对生育期前期(特别是拔节期)受旱条件下夏玉米生长发育、产量形成和土壤水分变化的模拟还存在一定的不足,若将CERES-Maize模型应用于我国干旱和半干旱地区水分胁迫条件下玉米的生产管理和科学研究,应对模型进行相应的修正。     

Simulating badland erosion with KINEROS2 in a small Mediterranean mountain basin (Vallcebre,Eastern Pyrenees)

The Ca l?Isard catchment (1.32 km²), a sub-basin of the Vallcebre experimental catchments, yields large amounts of sediments (about 580 Mg km^− 2 year^− 1) that are produced in relatively small but very active eroded areas (badlands). Several lines of evidence suggest that there is a delay between sediment production, caused by intense summer rainstorms, and sediment transport, occasioned by the main floods produced by large precipitation events following wet antecedent conditions. First, a calibration–validation exercise was carried out with sediment yield data obtained using containers provided with slot divisors in a badlands micro-catchment (1240 m²). Then, the model was applied to the main badlands areas in the Ca l?Isard sub-catchment for a 4-year period and the simulated sediment yields were compared with the records at the gauging station. The test was performed with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach for assessing the uncertainty associated with model predictions, which assumes that many parameter sets can give acceptable simulations. The results demonstrated the capacity of KINEROS2 to simulate badland erosion, although it showed limited robustness. A clear temporal mismatch between erosion and sediment transport and the relevance of sediment stores in the catchment were confirmed, while the total weights of sediment were generally under-predicted. The limited suitability of the area used for calibration or the role of sediment sources not simulated in the approach may account for this shortcoming.     

基于PSO的DSSAT水稻品种参数优化

农业技术转移决策支持系统（DSSAT）在农业领域的应用越来越广泛，应用DSSAT的首要工作就是估计作物品种参数。GLUE参数估计器是DSSAT自带的参数估计工具，但GLUE参数估计器所估计的品种参数并不总有效，其估计参数的DSSAT模拟精度往往不高。本文利用4个品种水稻的田间实测产量数据，采用对比分析方法，以DSSAT自带的GLUE参数估计器运行结果为参照，将粒子群优化（PSO）的每个粒子视为一组水稻品种参数，在运行PSO算法过程中调用DSSAT模拟水稻产量，依据产量模拟误差和PSO的运行机制修改粒子，从而验证PSO优化DSSAT水稻品种参数的有效性及可行性。研究结果表明：两种算法均能较好识别DSSAT水稻品种参数，但GLUE参数估计器估计参数无效的频次较高；与GLUE参数估计器相比，PSO识别的参数均为有效参数，其优化参数的DSSAT模拟水稻产量的精度更高，标准化均方根误差（NRMSE）处于5.98%~8.78%之间，明显低于GLUE参数估计器的6.89%~18.06%，所模拟的水稻产量也更接近于实测产量。