Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

A novel approach to studying the effects of temperature on soil biogeochemistry using a thermal gradient bar

The temperature dependence of chemical reaction rates and microbial metabolism mean that temperature is a key factor regulating soil trace gas emissions and hydrochemistry. Here we evaluated a novel approach for studying the thermal response of soils, by examining the effects of temperature on gas emissions and hydrochemistry in (a) peat and (b) soil from a Sitka spruce plantation. A thermal gradient was applied along an aluminium bar, allowing soil to be incubated contemporaneously from 2 to 18 °C. The approach demonstrated clear differences in the biogeochemical responses of the two soil types to warming. The peat showed no significant emission of CH₄ at temperatures below 6 °C, while above 6 °C, a marked increase in the rate of release was apparent up to 15 °C (Q₁₀ = 2.5) with emissions being similar between 15 and 18 °C. Conversely, CH₄ emissions from the forest soil did not respond to warming. Nitrate availability in the peat decreased by 90% between 2 and 18 °C (P < 0.01), whereas concentrations in the forest soil did not respond. Sulphate availability in the peat decreased significantly with warming (60%, P < 0.01), while the forest soil showed the opposite response (a 30% increase, P < 0.01). Conventionally, thermal responses are studied by incubating individual soil samples at different temperatures, involving lengthy preparation and facilities to incubate samples at different temperatures simultaneously. Data collected on a given thermal response is usually limited and thus interpolated or extrapolated. The thermal gradient method overcomes these problems, is simple and flexible, and can be adapted for a wide range of sample types (not confined to soil). Such apparatus may prove useful in the optimization of management practices to mitigate the effects of climate change, as thermal responses will differ depending on land use and soil type.     

WEPP模型中的CLIGEN与BPCDG应用对比研究

通过对遂宁组紫色土产流、产沙侵蚀的观测,运用迄今为止最为复杂的土壤侵蚀预测模型WEPP模型进行单次降雨侵蚀预测,与实测值比较,并对比通过气候生成器CLIGEN和断点生成器BPCDG的产生的气候参数对预测值的影响。通过分析比较结果,认为WEPP模型对遂宁组紫色土侵蚀过程预测合理,而且利用断点生成器BPCDG的预测结果要优于气候生成器CLIGEN的预测结果。     

哈达门森林公园的旅游气候资源

地处阴山山系中段大青山脉林区的哈园，其气候区划为我国中温带亚干旱气候类型。就整体而言，四季分明，内陆气候特征强烈；但因巨大阴山山地效应，年降雨量超过４５０ｍｍ，植被繁茂，形成多种多样的小气候环境，以高山环境、森林环境及峡谷环境为代表，它们冷暖干湿分异形大。气候的多样性，可满足旅游者的不同要求，产生了非凡吸引力，为哈园开发建设的宝贵自然资源之一。     

Effects of temperature,vapour pressure deficit and radiation on infectivity of conidia ofBotrytis cinerea and on susceptibility of gerbera petals

The effect of vapour pressure deficit, temperature and radiation on the postharvest susceptibility of gerbera flowers toB. cinerea, on the water relations of gerbera flowers and on the lesion formation after conidial infection ofB. cinerea was studied. The temperature range in whichB. cinerea could germinate and growin vitro is 5–30 °C. In climate chamber experiments flowers had more lesions ofB. cinerea at temperatures of 20 and 25 °C than at 10 and 15°C. At 15, 20 and 25°C the infectivity ofB. cinerea conidia was negatively affected during a storage-period of 7 days. At a vapour pressure deficit (VPD) of 200 Pa significantly more conidia ofB. cinerea were infective than at 800 Pa. At a VPD of 800 Pa the susceptibility of gerbera flowers forB. cinerea was not significantly different than at 200 Pa. High radiation levels in glasshouses in spring and summer negatively influenced the infectivity of conidia ofB. cinerea on the flower surface, but did not affect the susceptibility of gerbera flowers forB. cinerea. In spring and early summer conidia lost their infectivity at high radiation levels, high temperatures and high levels of VPD. In summer gerbera flowers could be more susceptible toB. cinerea because of high temperatures in glasshouses, but the negative effect of radiation on the conidia ofB. cinerea seemed to overrule the temperature effect. Thus, the numbers of lesions in spring and summer can be low compared with the numbers in other seasons, although the numbers ofB. cinerea colonies on spore traps can be high. The effect of temperature on the susceptibility of gerbera flowers can probably be explained by changes of water status in the petals. At higher temperatures the number of lesions and the turgor (=water potential—osmotic potential) in the petals increased. Temperatures <10°C during lesion formation (RH>95% and VPD<50 Pa) had a temporary negative effect on the number of lesions. After 3 days of incubation the numbers of lesions were about equal (30 lesions/cm²) from 5 to 20°C. At 30°C no lesion formation was observed even after 3 days.     

宁夏南部山区抗旱应灾农业技术体系的探讨

通过分析宁夏南部山区干旱气候规律及其对农业的胁迫效应，指出干旱灾害是宁南农业生产力水平低而不稳的重要原因；加强与气候条件相适应的农业技术的研究和改进，是宁南农业持续稳定发展的重要基础。结合多年来的旱地农业科技攻关研究工作，在对单项农业技术进行组装集成的基础上，建立了包括工程措施、生物措施、农艺措施、化学措施等四大措施紧密结合的宁南山区抗旱应灾农业技术体系，探讨了宁南山区抗旱应灾的主要技术策略。对于广大旱农地区提高农业系统防旱抗旱能力，实现农业高产稳产具有普遍指导意义。     

关中平原小麦产量对气候变化区域响应的评价模型研究

根据关中地区宝鸡、西安、渭南与咸阳 4地 (市 )的 1 949～ 1 999年的逐年小麦单产记录序列以及 4地 (市 )的气象观测站点自建站以来至 2 0 0 0年近 5 0年的气象记录序列 ,对关中地区小麦产量与年均温、年降水作相关分析 ;探讨了关中地区小麦单产对气候变化区域响应的评价模型。结果发现 :关中平原气候具有暖干化趋势 ;随着气温变暖 ,小麦产量增加幅度减小 ;小麦产量对降水波动的响应比对气温波动的响应显著。     

渭河阶地全新世土壤粒度成分高分辨率研究

通过对渭河阶地全新世土壤的野外考察和粒度成分的高分辨率分析研究，揭示了该区域褐色土的成壤作用过程与季风气候变化的关系。研究表明渭河第二级阶地褐色土形成在全新世气候最适宜期（8500－3100a B.P.），从8500a B.P.开始该土壤开始发育，老官台文化兴起。从3100a B.P.开始的气候干旱化和沙尘暴堆积形成了黄土L。层。西周时期对应于该干旱期的初期。