THE BASIC PROPERTIES OF CONDITIONAL EQUATION WITH ACCUMULATIVE STATE

Several aspects of the conditional equation derived from the accumulative equation are discussed in detail. The results indicate that the conditional equation not only is well consistent with the principles of electronegativity and absolute hardness equalization, but also satisfies the bonding of a full -prerequisite condition, e. g. two like electronic charge species repel and unlike attract each other'. In addition these principles are in the accumulative state. Mathematically, some other aspects of the conditional equation are worth studying based on the generalization of this equation.     

Conditional Value-at-Risk and Its Use in Credit Risk Measurement of Banks

Credit risk, the major risk of bank, is more and more intense during the period of economic restructuring in China. In view of the flaw of present risk measurement system, Conditional Value-at-Risk is used for the credit risk measurement which is better than Value-at-Risk. This paper creates the model ,while gives the method and procedure for solving it. So CVaRof credit combination is produced, which is just the early warning value of credit risk. At last, it is concluded that the CVaRrisk measurement is too difficult to use widely at present in china, then some advice is provided.     

Prediction of multinomial probability of land use change using a bisection decomposition and logistic regression

Land use change is an important research area in landscape ecology and urban development. Prediction of land use change (urban development) provides critical information for making the right policies and management plans in order to maintain and improve ecosystem and city functions. Logistic regression is a widely used method to predict binomial probabilities of land use change when just two responses (change and no-change) are considered. However, in practice, more than two types of change are encountered and multinomial probabilities are therefore needed. The existing methods for predicting multinomial probabilities have limits in building multinomial probability models and are often based on improper assumptions. This is due to the lack of proper methodology and inadequate software. In this study, a procedure has been developed for building models to predict the multinomial probabilities of land use change and urban development. The foundation of this procedure consists of a special bisection decomposition system for the decomposition of multiple-class systems to bi-class systems, conditional probability inference, and logistic regression for binomial probability models. A case study of urban development has been conducted to evaluate this procedure. The evaluation results demonstrated that different samples and bisection decomposition systems led to very similar quality and performance in the developed multinomial probability models, which indicates the high stability of the proposed procedure for this case study.     

农村劳动力迁移的条件期望工资理论

建立了条件期望工资理论,分析了农村不同收入阶层农户的迁移意愿,并针对中国国情提出一些政策建议.     

Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts.     

Estimating daytime subcanopy respiration from conditional sampling methods applied to multi-scalar high frequency turbulence time series

This study presents a new method to estimate daytime respiration from the subcanopy of forests directly from conventional eddy covariance (EC) measurements. The method primarily considers the respiration signal from root, litter and microbial respiration, which are known to be the main components of ecosystem respiration, R_e, as well as decomposition of coarse and fine woody detritus, and respiration from low understory vegetation (forbs, herbs and grasses). The conceptual framework is based on the premise that upward moving air parcels carry a specific and unambiguous signal in their CO₂ and water vapour composition, which can be separated and distinguished into respiration and photosynthesis. The model employed a combination of conditional sampling methods, quadrant analysis and relaxed eddy accumulation with hyperbolic deadbands to identify respiration events and to quantify their flux contribution. Datasets from five sites, most of which had multiple sampling heights, were selected to test this technique among contrasting ecosystems and canopy structures.Respiration signals were successfully identified in daytime data of all sites. A hyperbolic deadband of size H = 0.25 applied to the plane constructed from perturbations of carbon dioxide c and water vapour q densities effectively separated the signals of respiration from photosynthesis. The time fraction of respiration events was ≤10% during daytime. The global correlation coefficient r_c,q was found to be a universal predictor of this time fraction and was therefore used as a filter to identify periods of a meaningful and extractable respiration signal. Coherent structures, defined as ramp-shaped flow pattern observed in time series in and above forest canopies, are likely to be the underlying transport mechanism for these respiration events.Daytime subcanopy R_e estimates derived from the new method agreed with those derived from: (i) the intercept of light-response curves and (ii) soil CO₂ efflux chambers for three of the five sites. Limitations were posed by the dense, multi-layered deciduous canopy and the intense vertical turbulent mixing at one coniferous site. In addition, refixation of respired CO₂ by the understorey (CO₂ recycling) may cause an underestimation of daytime R_e or pose a limitation to the method proposed here. An indicator relating the canopy shear length scale, L_s, to the adjustment length scale, L_d, was proposed to predict the skill of the new method, and found to be useful in four of the five sites. Analysis of vertical coupling in the plant canopy using exchange regimes could explain the failure of the new method for the remaining site.     

均值-VaR分析与资本资产定价模型:一个理论拓展

在均值—VaR分析框架内首先从微观角度的单一投资期资产配置决策入手,发现投资者的资产配置决策分为两步:第一步确定最优风险资产组合,第二步确定无风险资产与最优风险资产组合之间的配置比率;并且最优风险资产组合同投资者的初始财富和风险偏好均无关。随后我们将上述微观模型应用到存在多个"一致预期"投资者的资本市场宏观模型当中去,在一系列假设条件下我们得到了均值—VaR框架下的两基金分立定理:各个投资者的最优投资组合都是由共同的最优风险资产组合和无风险资产组成,不同的只是二者之间的配置比率不同。最后我们允许投资者的风     

Identification of risk factors for the prevalence and persistence of Salmonella in Belgian broiler chicken flocks

According to the European Food Safety Authority, salmonellosis is still one of the main causes of infectious foodborne gastroenteritis in humans. Broilers are an important source of salmonellosis after eggs and pork. Between 1987 and 1999 the trend of human salmonellosis incidence in Belgium increased constantly. However, from 2000 until 2005 a decrease in human cases was observed, probably following the sanitary measures implemented in the poultry breeder and laying sector. In order to decrease human infections it is essential to tackle the problem at the farm level to minimize cross-contamination from farm to fork. This paper seeks to answer two questions: (i) given the Salmonella status of the farm at a certain occasion (equal to the sampling time of the flock), what are the risk factors that the farm will be Salmonella positive at a following occasion? And (ii) what are the risk factors for a farm to be persistently positive for two consecutive flocks? We used surveillance data on 6824 broiler flocks studied for Salmonella infectivity from 2005 to 2006 in Belgium. The farms were tested regularly (3 weeks before slaughter of each broiler flock) for the presence of Salmonella based on multiple faecal samples per flock on a farm yielding clustered data. Generalized estimating equations, alternating logistic regression models, and random-intercept logistic regression models were employed to analyse these correlated binary data. Our results indicated that there are many factors that influence Salmonella risk in broiler flocks, and that they interact. Accounting for interactions between risk factors leads to an improved determination of those risk factors that increase infection with Salmonella. For the conditional analysis, the risk factors found to increase the risk of Salmonella infection on a farm at a current occasion given the previous Salmonella status included: Salmonella infection of day-old chicks (of the current flock); a previously infected flock even though the farm was equipped with a hygiene place to change clothes prior to entering the broiler house; having temporary workmen when there was a separation between birds of different species; and separating birds of different species in the Walloon region relative to the Flanders region. Sanitary measures such as a cleaning and disinfecting procedure conducted by an external cleaning firm, applying the all-in all-out procedure, and hand washing decreased the risk despite their interaction with other factors. From the joint analysis, the most important factors identified for increased risk for persistent Salmonella on a farm involved the interaction between having temporary workmen when there were poultry or farmers in contact with foreign poultry or persons, and the interaction between having temporary workmen when there were poultry or farmers in contact with external poultry or persons.     

利用有限酶解技术提高鲶鱼食用肉粉溶解度的研究

[目的]筛选出有限酶解鲶鱼肉蛋白的最佳用酶种类和酶解工艺条件,为鲶鱼食用肉粉的加工提供理论依据。[方法]以鲶鱼为原料,经预处理、采肉、漂洗、斩拌、有限酶解、打浆和干燥等工序加工而成鲶鱼食用肉粉。其中选择4种酶（风味蛋白酶、枯草杆菌中性蛋白酶、碱性蛋白酶和木瓜蛋白酶）作为水解用酶,分别在各酶最佳酶解条件下对鲶鱼肉糜进行水解,以鲶鱼肉粉的溶解度为评价指标。[结果]用中性蛋白酶作为有限酶解的酶类加工出的鲶鱼食用肉粉溶解度可达90%以上,最佳酶解工艺条件为：酶用量0.55%,酶解时间60 min,料水比1∶3（g∶g）。[结论]用中性蛋白酶作为有限酶解的酶类,加工出的鲶鱼食用肉粉溶解度最高,风味最佳。     

小麦籽粒淀粉积累动态的条件和非条件QTL定位

 【目的】阐明影响小麦籽粒淀粉基因/QTL的时空表达和动态变化情况,为运用条件QTL更好地揭示小麦籽粒淀粉动态积累的基因表达提供参考。【方法】本研究以小麦品种花培3号和豫麦57构建的168个双单倍体（doubled haploid, DH）群体为材料,在6个不同的环境下种植,分别在花后12 d、17 d、22 d、27 d和32 d取样,对小麦籽粒淀粉含量（GSC）积累的条件和非条件QTL进行分析。【结果】在籽粒灌浆的5个时期,一共检测到7个非条件QTL和4个条件QTL,没有一个条件QTL能在测定的5个时期都有效应。7个非条件QTL分别分布在2A、3A、3B、4A、5D染色体上,其中QGsc4A在整个灌浆过程都能表达,5个时期的表型变异贡献率分别为13.57%、16.57%、21.96%、22.53%、22.90%。4个条件QTL中,QGsc4A在花后12 d、17 d、32 d均能检测到,总贡献率为21.80%,对籽粒淀粉积累的净增长量起主要作用。其它非条件QTL和条件QTL只在一个或几个阶段出现且效应值较小,花后27 d没有检测到条件QTL。【结论】控制GSC积累的数量性状基因以一定的时空方式表达,小麦籽粒淀粉积累的QTL动态分析,可以了解小麦籽粒淀粉积累的遗传规律及其对小麦籽粒发育的影响,为小麦产量和品质形成的分子基础的深入研究提供参考。