Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Landowner perceptions and the adoption of agroforestry practices in southern Ontario,Canada

A mail-out survey questionnaire was developed by the Agroforestry group at the University of Guelph to determine the level of awareness and interest in the adoption of agroforestry systems by landusers from four townships in Wellington County, Ontario. The questionnaire investigated: (1) the current level of knowledge regarding windbreaks, woodlots and plantations, intereropping, riparian plantations and silvipasture, (2) the present level of participation in each of these systems on-farm, (3) the perceived benefits and/or drawbacks of each of these initiatives with respect to total farm income, income diversity, land rehabilitation, land value/equity, soil/water conservation, labour intensity, overhead and return on the term of investment.The majority of respondents were familiar with conventional agroforestry systems such as windbreaks and woodlots/plantations (80%, 62% respectively), therefore the level of interest in the adoption of these practices was significant (74%, 66% respectively). Response rates were lower for silvipasture, riparian plantations and intercropping, most likely as result of the low level of familiarity with these practices (20%, 32%, 4% respectively). Respondents commented that agroforestry systems would have a neutral effect on farm income, and would increase land stewardship. In some cases, interested landusers indicated a willingness to participate in agroforestry systems even though they anticipated increases in overhead and labour intensity; however, this was only true if they held land stewardship as a priority. Landusers were more concerned with the economic aspects of agroforestry, as a determinant to the future adoptability of particular practices. Age, gender, farm operation and farm size were not correlated with the adoption of agroforestry systems.The success of agroforestry programs on farms in the study area is largely dependent on the attitudes and willingness of landusers to participate in non-traditional agricultural systems.     

Assessing the options for upland livestock systems under CAP reform: Developing and applying a livestock systems model within whole-farm systems analysis

This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15–18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable.     

Combining deliberative and computer-based methods for multi-objective land-use planning

This paper reports the outcomes of a deliberative workshop comparing land-use plans proposed by land-manager or domain experts with those derived using a computer-based decision support system (DSS). The DSS integrates four main components, a geographic information system, land-use systems simulation models, impact assessments and land-use planning tools. The land-use planning tools draw on the other components to generate and evaluate alternative patterns of land use and management. Since the land-use planning tools are based on multi-objective genetic algorithms (mGAs) it is possible to generate a range of alternative plans that define the structure of the trade-off between the objectives. The workshop tasked the delegates with specifying land-use plans that achieved the best compromise between two objectives known to be non-commensurable and conflicting. The nature of the best compromise was dependent on their individual perspectives. The delegates proposed allocations both as individuals and in researcher-facilitated sub-groups. The mGA allocations were then compared with those derived by delegates and were found to be broadly similar in performance. Differences in the range of allocations considered feasible were explained by the hard and soft constraints on allocations agreed between the delegates and articulated within the workshop process. The hypothesis that part of the difference in performance between the mGA and delegate allocations was due to the delegates blocking together fields with the same land use for convenience of management was proved. The analysis of the group allocations revealed that the decision-making process had failed to improve on the individual allocations. From these results it was concluded that there was a potential role for mGA based land-use planning tools in researching into, and deliberating on, the possible impacts of policy or other factors affecting land-use systems. It was further concluded that the tools should not be used in isolation since there was the need for stake-holder inputs to adequately define the range of feasible and practical land-use plans.     

Incidence of hybridization between Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., and brown trout, Salmo trutta L., in Ireland

The substantial growth of the farmed salmon industry in Europe since the 1970s has highlighted concerns regarding the genetic impact of escaped farmed salmon on wild salmonid stocks. High incidences of salmon × trout hybrids have been recorded in rivers situated near intensive salmon farming in Norway and Scotland, which may be indicative of a breakdown in reproductive isolation between salmon, Salmo salar L., and brown trout, Salmo trutta L. In the present study, salmonid fry and 0+ parr were collected from rivers in western Ireland. Allozyme and minisatellite DNA analysis were carried out on fry to determine the frequency of F1 hybrids from 10 rivers located within 38 km of salmon farms and three rivers at least 80 km from salmon farms. A total of 49 hybrids were recorded from 4135 salmonid fry (frequency = 1.2%). Mitochondrial DNA analysis showed that all hybrids arose from Atlantic salmon female × brown trout male crosses. Hybrid parr were recorded from one of the low-risk rivers (1.0%), but were present in seven out of the 10 catchments located within 38 km of salmon farms, with frequencies ranging from 0.7% to 3.1%. The results of the present survey, which represents the first extensive record of the levels of salmon-trout hybridization in Ireland, are discussed in relation to the continued growth of salmon farming in this country.     

Response of soricid populations to repeated fire and fuel reduction treatments in the southern Appalachian Mountains

Fuel hazards have increased in forests across the United States because of fire exclusion during the 20th century. Treatments used to reduce fuel buildup may affect wildlife, such as shrews, living on the forest floor, especially when treatments are applied repeatedly. From mid-May to mid-August 2006 and 2007, we used drift fences with pitfall traps to capture shrews in western North Carolina in 3 fuel reduction treatment areas [(1) twice-burned (2003 and 2006), (2) mechanical understory cut (2002), and (3) mechanical understory cut (2002) followed by 2 burns (2003 and 2006)] and a control. We captured 77% fewer southeastern shrews (Sorex longirostris) in mechanical + twice-burned treatment areas than in mechanical treatment areas in 2006, but southeastern shrew captures did not differ among treatment areas in 2007. Total shrew captures did not differ among treatment areas in either year. Decreases in leaf litter, duff depth, and canopy cover in mechanical + twice-burned treatment areas may have decreased ground-level moisture, thereby causing short-term declines in southeastern shrew captures. Prescribed fire or mechanical fuel reduction treatments in the southern Appalachian Mountains did not greatly affect shrew populations, though the combination of both treatments may negatively affect some shrew species, at least temporarily.     

Sheep as vectors for branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa subsp. mutelii [F.W. Schultz] Cout.) seed dispersal

Sheep can be vectors for the long‐distance dispersal of weeds when seed becomes attached and retained in wool or survives the gastrointestinal tract. This study aimed to determine an appropriate quarantine period for sheep that minimized the risk of the long‐distance dispersal of the seeds of branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa L. subsp. mutelii [F.W. Shultz] Cout.), a parasitic weed. Experiments with penned sheep found that the seeds that were placed on the soil surface adhered to the wool on the thigh and belly of the sheep, with most of the seeds attaching to the feet. Most of the seeds that were applied to the belly and thigh wool detached within 2 days, although a small proportion was present after 7 days. The seeds that were introduced to the digestive tract via drenching had a peak voidance 2 days later and no seed was detected on Day 8. It is suggested that a 7 day quarantine period for sheep would be sufficient in order to reduce the risk of the internal transport of seed to acceptable levels, but a small risk of the external transport of seed on the fleece remains.     

Wetting of agricultural soil measured by a simplified capillary rise technique

We describe the use of a capillary rise method to measure the wettability of 10 samples of agricultural soil from Rothamsted long-term experimental sites. The samples have very similar clay contents, but organic carbon (C) contents range from 11.5 to 31.2 g kg⁻¹. Their wetting rates were interpreted by an improved method of data analysis, consistent with the Washburn equation, and showed an increase in the effective contact angle between the water meniscus and the soil with increasing C content. This corresponds to a decrease in wettability with increasing C content, and accords with other results reported in the literature. By contrast with water, we found that capillary rise for n -hexane into soil did not depend on the soil's bulk density or C content. A priori calculations of the expected wetting rates from fluid properties and an effective hydraulic radius estimated by other methods gave magnitudes and trends that agreed with our experimental data. The results show that estimates of effective hydraulic radius can provide a useful approximation for characterizing soil wetting, but that further modelling should be carried out.     

Modeling the invasive emerald ash borer risk of spread using a spatially explicit cellular model

The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus sp.) throughout midwestern North America, killing millions of trees over the years. With plenty of ash available throughout the continent, the spread of this destructive insect is likely to continue. We estimate that the insect has been moving along a “front” at about 20 km/year since about 1998, but more alarming is its long-range dispersal into new locations facilitated by human activities. We describe a spatially explicit cell-based model used to calculate risk of spread in Ohio, by combining the insect’s flight and short-range dispersal (“insect flight”) with human-facilitated, long-range dispersal (“insect ride”). This hybrid model requires estimates of EAB abundance, ash abundance, major roads and traffic density, campground size and usage, distance from the core infested zone, wood products industry size and type of wood usage, and human population density. With the “insect flight” model, probability of movement is dependent on EAB abundance in the source cells, the quantity of ash in the target cells, and the distances between them. With the “insect-ride” model, we modify the value related to ash abundance based on factors related to potential human-assisted movements of EAB-infested ash wood or just hitchhiking insects. We attempt to show the advantage of our model compared to statistical approaches and to justify its practical value to field managers working with imperfect knowledge. We stress the importance of the road network in distributing insects to new geographically dispersed sites in Ohio, where 84% were within 1 km of a major highway.