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1.
Emergency preparedness relies on the ability to detect patterns in rare incidents in an early stage of an outbreak in order to implement relevant actions. Early warning of an abortion storm as a result of infection with a notifiable disease, e.g. brucellosis, bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), is a significant surveillance tool. This study used data from 507 large Danish dairy herds. A modified two-stage method for detecting an unusual increase in the abortion incidence was applied to the data. An alarm was considered true if an abortion were detected in the month following the alarm month, otherwise false. The total number of abortions that could potentially be avoided if effective action were taken ranged from 769 (22.9%) to 10 (0.3%), as the number of abortions required to set the alarm increased from 1 to 6. The vast majority of abortions could, however, not be predicted, much less prevented, given this early-warning system. The false to true alarm ratio was reduced when the number of abortions that set the alarm increased. The financial scenarios evaluated demonstrated that the value of an abortion, the cost of responding to an alarm and the efficiency of the actions are important for decision making when reporting an alarm. The presented model can readily be extended to other disease problems and multiple-time periods.  相似文献   
2.
A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to identify risk factors associated with Salmonella enterica infection in Danish broiler production. The study was based on information in the antemortem database (AM database) where data were available for all broiler flocks slaughtered over the 2-year period from 1992 to 1993 in Denmark. The AM database contains information collected by the ante-mortem veterinarians, from the slaughterhouses, and from the salmonella examinations carried out at the National Veterinary Laboratory. The epidemiological unit was the individual broiler flock. The salmonella status of the flock was determined by examining the caecal tonsils from 16 3-week-old chickens from each flock. This procedure would detect a salmonella-infected flock, with a probability above 95%, if the prevalence is above 20%. Furthermore, the structure and quality of the collected data have been evaluated.

Fourteen variables were selected for analysis by multivariable logistic regression. An increased risk of salmonella infection in the broiler flocks was associated with the biggest hatcheries and feedmill, with an increasing number of houses on the farm, if the preceding flock was infected, and if the flock was reared in the autumn. Additionally, the main variables of the model were analysed by including a random effect at the house level. This resulted only in minor changes of the parameter estimates.  相似文献   

3.
OBJECTIVES: To assess the sensitivity of the current surveillance program used in Denmark for detecting outbreaks of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) at the herd level and to evaluate the impact of alternative sample collection strategies on the sensitivity of the system in an acceptable time frame. SAMPLE POPULATION: Data from the Danish Central Husbandry Register on cattle of 24,355 and 25,233 beef herds and on 13,034 and 12,003 dairy herds in the years 2000 and 2001, respectively. PROCEDURES: Surveillance programs were evaluated under current sample collection conditions and under 3 alternative scenarios by use of simulation modeling. Data from the current detection component of the surveillance system were used as input, taking into consideration the sensitivity and specificity of bulktank milk and serologic testing. RESULTS:The current system identifies infected dairy herds within a 3-month period with desired accuracy largely because of the test characteristics and number of bulk-tank milk samples. The system is less likely to detect infected beef herds in a timely manner because surveillance in beef herds depends solely on serologic testing at the time of slaughter. The efficiency of surveillance in dairy cattle herds was not decreased substantially when the slaughter-surveillance component was omitted. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE:Geographically targeted sample collection during the high-risk season (winter) was predicted to increase the probability of rapid detection of IBR infection in cattle. This approach can be used for assessing other surveillance systems to determine the best strategies for detection of infected herds.  相似文献   
4.
The resistance genes Lr9, Lr24, Lr25, Lr29, Lr35 and Lr37, which were not previously utilised in Hungary, have been incorporated into four Martonvásár winter wheat cultivars using marker-assisted selection with PCR-based markers. In the course of a backcross programme, the genes were transferred into Martonvásár wheat varieties and various BC generations were produced. Work aimed at pyramiding resistance genes is currently underway in Martonvásár, and plants containing the gene combinations Lr9 + Lr24, Lr9 + Lr25 and Lr9 + Lr29 are now available. From the BC2F4 generation of the ‘Mv Emma’*3/’R.L.6010’ combination (‘R.L.6010’ is the donor of the Lr9 gene) 287 lines were tested for leaf rust resistance in an artificially inoculated nursery. A co-dominant primer combination was designed to identify both resistant and susceptible offsprings. The results of resistance tests and molecular marker detection agreed in most cases. Designated leaf rust resistance genes were identified with molecular markers in wheat varieties and breeding lines. The Lr26 and Lr34 resistance genes occur frequently in the Martonvásár gene pool, and the presence of the Lr37 gene has also been detected in a number of Hungarian genotypes.  相似文献   
5.
The total contents of thiamine (vitamin B1), riboflavin (B2), and pyridoxine (B6) and the bioavailable forms of niacin (B3) were determined on wholemeal flours of 24 winter wheat varieties grown on four sites (United Kingdom, Poland, France, and Hungary) in 2007 and of two spring varieties grown on the same sites with the exception of Poland. The contents of vitamins B1 (5.53-13.55 μg/g dw), B2 (0.77-1.40 μg/g dw), and B6 (1.27-2.97 μg/g dw) were within the ranges reported previously, while the content of bioavailable vitamin B3 (0.16-1.74 μg/g dw) was about 10-15% of the total contents of vitamin B3 reported in previous studies. Strong correlations were observed between the contents of vitamins B1, B3, and B6, and partitioning of the variance in the contents of these three B vitamins showed that between 48 and 70% was accounted for by the environment. By contrast, the content of vitamin B2 was not correlated with the contents of other B vitamins, and 73% of the variance was ascribed to the error term, which suggests that this trait may be influenced by genotype × environment interactions. Whereas the contents of vitamins B1, B3, and B6 were correlated positively with the mean temperature from heading to harvest (r > 0.8), the content of vitamin B2 was positively correlated with precipitation during the 3 months prior to heading. These results are discussed in relation to the development of new wheat varieties with enhanced health benefits.  相似文献   
6.
7.
Pathogenicity of Aphanomyces spp. from Different Leguminous Crops in Sweden   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Host range and pathogenicity of a range of Aphanomyces spp. isolates obtained from pea roots but also from a range of other field-grown leguminous crops in southern Sweden was investigated. The Aphanomyces euteiches isolates originating from pea and the few obtained isolates originating from alfalfa, green bean and yellow sweet-clover were highly pathogenic only to pea. The A. euteiches isolated from common vetch differed from these isolates by being weakly pathogenic to pea and other legumes, but highly pathogenic to common vetch. Vetch isolates also formed a well-defined separate cluster based on principal component analysis of pathogenicity pattern on tested crops. Oospores of A. euteiches were observed in root tissue of pea as well as common vetch, alfalfa, green bean, broad bean, red clover and yellow sweet-clover in the greenhouse pathogenicity tests. An Aphanomyces sp. that morphologically differed from A. euteiches, was frequently isolated from several leguminous plants, but was non-pathogenic to all tested crops in the pathogenicity tests. In isozyme analysis the banding pattern of these isolates resembled the pattern of A. cladogamus. Another, different and so far unidentified Aphanomyces sp. from roots of green bean and broad bean, was also non-pathogenic to the tested legume species. Based on the isolates tested, the results obtained suggest that the population of Aphanomyces spp. infecting legume roots in Sweden consists of a pea-specific and a vetch-specific group of A. euteiches. Two other groups comprised (i) Aphanomyces sp. isolates that resembled A. cladogamus, and (ii) isolates, which resembled neither A. euteiches nor A. cladogamus. In addition, the host range of Swedish A. euteiches isolates was not as broad as reported for A. euteiches isolates from other countries.  相似文献   
8.
Kernel hardness of cereal grains is a fundamental phenotype, and various protocols for its characterization have been proposed. Although, from different perspectives, each has proved useful, these methods do not directly address the rheological (fracturing) response of a grain when subjected to compression. Such information is hidden in the individual crush response profiles (iCRPs) obtained by measuring the response of individual grains to crushing on an SKCS 4100 device. Here, the appropriateness and utility of rheological phenotypes, based on single‐kernel measurements, are demonstrated by proposing and validating a new wheat grain hardness phenotype, the rheological hardness index (RHI). It is defined in terms of the rheological phenotype phases (RPPs) of the averaged CRPs (aCRPs) obtained by averaging a large number of iCRPs. The utility of RHI is illustrated by showing how it provides improved insight about the differences in brittleness and compactness of grains from different wheat varieties. This investigation highlights the opportunity that the RPP of the aCRPs represent for obtaining specific quantitative phenotypes for the study of hardness in cereal grains. In particular, successful plant breeding relies on segregating a breeding population into appropriate end‐use categories, for which RHI has a potential role to play.  相似文献   
9.
Hemorrhagic pneumonia is an acute and fatal disease of farmed mink caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The pathogenesis of this disease has not yet been resolved. Mink are the only animals known to be susceptible to acute, contagious, and fatal lung infections caused by P. aeruginosa. The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between dose-response and season of infection and to clarify whether Danish mink are carriers of P. aeruginosa on their nasal mucosa during the season for hemorrhagic pneumonia. To elucidate the pathogenesis of the disease, an infectious dose-response trial was carried out on adult mink and mink kits, both in the season for hemorrhagic pneumonia (November) as well as out of season (July). It proved difficult to infect mink via the intra-nasal route. Only 4 out of 60 infected mink developed clinical disease and were euthanized, all of them in November, illustrating that predisposing factors in the mink itself and not infectious dose might be crucial for disease development. We were able to culture P. aeruginosa from the nasal cavity of the clinically healthy experimental mink 8 d after inoculation. This indicated that the mink can carry P. aeruginosa on their nasal mucosa without developing the disease. It was not possible, however, to culture P. aeruginosa from the nasal cavity of clinically healthy mink obtained from farms in November, which indicates that the organism is not a normal part of the nasal mucosal flora of mink.  相似文献   
10.
Outbreaks of Salmonella Dublin infections were recorded in 25 Danish mink and fox farms. All farms suffered extensive disease problems; clinical and pathological observations included abortion, stillbirths, necrotizing endometritis, and increased mortality. By genotyping with pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and amplified fragment length polymorphism, all isolates of S. Dublin had indistinguishable patterns. The outbreaks took place during April and May, around the time of whelping. During this period, mink are particularly susceptible to Salmonella infections. All affected farms were served by the same feed factory and it was concluded that a batch of contaminated feed was responsible for the outbreaks, although repeated culture of feed samples collected during the same period were negative. No other likely source could be identified. The results emphasize the importance of strict hygiene measures at feed factories and the proper use of ingredients of known Salmonella status, in particular during the whelping season. Infected mink farms did not have a higher risk of outbreak of salmonellosis in the year following the outbreak.  相似文献   
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