A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

Effect of cultivated copepods (Acartia tonsa) in first‐feeding of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and ballan wrasse (Labrus bergylta) larvae

The aim of this study was to compare the nutritional composition and effects of short periods with cultivated copepod nauplii versus rotifers in first‐feeding. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and ballan wrasse (Labrus bergylta) larvae were given four different dietary regimes in the earliest start‐feeding period. One group was fed the copepod Acartia tonsa nauplii (Cop), a second fed enriched rotifers (RotMG), a third fed unenriched rotifers (RotChl) and a fourth copepods for the seven first days of feeding and enriched rotifers the rest of the period (Cop7). Cod larvae were fed Artemia sp. between 20 and 40 dph (days posthatching), and ballan wrasse between 36 and 40 dph, with weaning to a formulated diet thereafter. In addition to assessing growth and survival, response to handling stress was measured. This study showed that even short periods of feeding with cultivated copepod nauplii (7 days) had positive long‐term effects on the growth and viability of the fish larvae. At the end of both studies (60 days posthatching), fish larvae fed copepods showed higher survival, better growth and viability than larvae fed rotifers. This underlines the importance of early larval nutrition.     

From regionally predictable to locally complex population structure in a freshwater top predator: river systems are not always the unit of connectivity in Northern Pike Esox lucius

Contemporary genetic diversity is the product of both historical and contemporary forces, such as climatic and geological processes affecting range distribution and continuously moulded by evolutionary forces selection, gene flow and genetic drift. Predatory freshwater fishes, such as Northern Pike Esox lucius, commonly exhibit small population sizes, and several local populations are considered endangered. Pike inhabit diverse habitat types, including lakes, rivers and brackish marine waters, thus spanning from small isolated patches to large open marine systems. However, pike population structure from local to regional scales is relatively poorly described, in spite of its significance to developing conservation measures. We analysed microsatellite variation in a total of 1185 North European pike from 46 samples collected across both local and regional scales, as well as over time, to address two overarching questions: Is pike population structure associated with local and/or regional connectivity patterns, and which factors likely have the main influence on the contemporary distribution of genetic diversity? To answer this, we combined estimators of population diversity and structure to assess evidence of whether populations within (i) habitats, (ii) drainage systems and (iii) geographical regions are closer related than among these ranges, and whether patterns are temporally stable. Contrasting previous predictions that genetic drift obscures signals of postglacial colonisation history, we identified clear regional differences in population genetic signatures, suggesting a major effect of drainage divides on colonisation history and connectivity. However, several populations deviated from the general pattern, showing that local processes may be complex and need to be examined case‐by‐case.     

Factors influencing red expression in autumn foliage of sugar maple trees

We evaluated factors influencing the development of autumn red coloration in leaves of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) by measuring mineral nutrient and carbohydrate concentrations, water content, and phenology of color development of leaves from 16 mature open-grown trees on 12 dates from June through October 1999. Mean foliar nutrient and carbohydrate concentrations and water content were generally within the range published for healthy sugar maple trees. However, foliar nitrogen (N) concentrations were near deficiency values for some trees. The timing and extent of red leaf coloration was consistently correlated with both foliar N concentrations and starch or sugar concentrations, which also varied with N status. Leaves of trees with low foliar N concentrations turned red earlier and more completely than those of trees with high foliar N concentrations. Low-N trees also had higher foliar starch concentrations than high-N trees. During the autumn development of red leaf coloration, foliar starch, glucose and fructose concentrations were positively correlated with red leaf color expression. At peak red expression, the concentrations of glucose, fructose, sucrose and stachyose were all positively correlated with red color expressed as a percent of total leaf area.     

The impact of increasing farm size and mechanization on rural income and rice production in Zhejiang province,China

Economic growth in China’s agricultural sector lags behind growth in industry and services, creating an ever widening rural–urban income gap. Development of the non-agricultural sectors offers new opportunities for farmers in China’s more advanced provinces such as Zhejiang. Increased income in the urban sector creates markets for new products, and migrating farmers rent their land to those staying. Until now, the prevailing rice-based systems have been managed mainly using manual labour and animal traction, but the larger farms resulting from migration may facilitate, or even require mechanization. In this study, we use a simulation model of the farm household to analyse the effects of increasing farm size and the transition from rice to vegetable production, while also studying the effects of mechanization.     

Flavor release measurement from gum model system

Flavor release from a mint-flavored chewing gum model system was measured by atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectroscopy (APCI-MS) and sensory time-intensity (TI). A data analysis method for handling the individual curves from both methods is presented. The APCI-MS data are ratio-scaled using the signal from acetone in the breath of subjects. Next, APCI-MS and sensory TI curves are smoothed by low-pass filtering. Principal component analysis of the individual curves is used to display graphically the product differentiation by APCI-MS or TI signals. It is shown that differences in gum composition can be measured by both instrumental and sensory techniques, providing comparable information. The peppermint oil level (0.5-2% w/w) in the gum influenced both the retronasal concentration and the perceived peppermint flavor. The sweeteners' (sorbitol or xylitol) effect is less apparent. Sensory adaptation and sensitivity differences of human perception versus APCI-MS detection might explain the divergence between the two dynamic measurement methods.