Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management

Context

Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change.

Objectives

Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota.

Methods

Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years.

Results

Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience.

     

How has the state-of-the-art for quantification of landscape pattern advanced in the twenty-first century?

Landscape Ecology - Landscape ecology was founded on the idea that there is a reciprocal relationship between spatial pattern and ecological processes. I provide a retrospective look at how the...     

Simulating the cumulative effects of multiple forest management strategies on landscape measures of forest sustainability

While the cumulative effects of the actions of multiple owners have long been recognized as critically relevant to efforts to maintain sustainable forests at the landscape scale, few studies have addressed these effects. We used the HARVEST timber harvest simulator to predict the cumulative effects of four owner groups (two paper companies, a state forest and non-industrial private owners) with different management objectives on landscape pattern in an upper Michigan landscape managed primarily for timber production. We quantified trends in landscape pattern metrics that were linked to Montreal Process indicators of forest sustainability, and used a simple wildlife habitat model to project habitat trends. Our results showed that most trends were considered favorable for forest sustainability, but that some were not. The proportion of all age classes and some forest types moved closer to presettlement conditions. The trend for the size of uneven-aged patches was essentially flat while the average size of patches of the oldest and youngest age classes increased and the size of patches of the remaining age classes decreased. Forest fragmentation generally declined, but edge density of age classes increased. Late seral forest habitat increased while early successional habitat declined. The owners use different management systems that cumulatively produce a diversity of habitats. Our approach provides a tool to evaluate such cumulative effects on other landscapes owned by multiple owners. The approach holds promise for helping landowner groups develop and evaluate cooperative strategies to improve landscape patterns for forest sustainability.     

Spatial and non-spatial risk factors associated with cage-level distribution of infectious salmon anaemia at three Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., farms in Maine, USA

The distribution of infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) was examined among 80 cages from three Atlantic salmon grow-out farms in Maine, USA that were stocked with smolts from a single hatchery. Cage-level disease was broadly defined as one or more moribund fish testing positive for infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) by RT-PCR and a second confirmatory test (IFAT, culture or genotype sequence). Spatio-temporal and cage-level risks were explored using logistic regression and survival analysis. Non-spatial risk factors associated with ISA, or shortened survival time to disease, included increased predation, trucking company choice for smolt transfers, a finely-sedimented benthic substrate, and smaller average size of smolts at stocking. Univariable analysis identified the time-dependent spatial factor 'adjacency to newly infected cages' to be predictive of new infection in neighbouring cages 11-12 weeks later. However, none of the spatial factors, or their lags retained relevance in multiple-variable models. The results suggest a diffuse distribution of virus exposure throughout infected sites, with host-susceptibility factors probably influencing disease manifestation in individual cages. The narrow focus of the current study may limit application of the findings to other sites and year-classes. However, these data support the relevance of husbandry efforts to optimize fish health in regions affected by ISAV.     

Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by a more detailed fire behavior model from which the simpler algorithm was derived. Equivalence testing allows objective comparisons of the output of simple and complex models, to determine if the results are significantly similar. Neutral landscape models represent a range of landscape conditions that the model may encounter, allowing evaluation of the sensitivity and behavior of the model to different landscape compositions and configurations. We first tested the model for universal applicability, then narrowed the testing to assess the practical domain of applicability. As a whole, the calibrated simple model passed the test for significant equivalence using the 25% threshold. When applied to a range of landscape conditions different from the calibration scenarios, the model failed the tests for equivalence. Although our particular model failed the tests, the neutral landscape models were helpful in determining an appropriate domain of applicability and in assessing the model sensitivity to landscape changes. Equivalence testing provides an effective method for model comparison, and coupled with neutral landscapes, our approach provides an objective way to assess the domain of applicability of a spatial model.     

Single‐ and multiple dose pharmacokinetics and multiple dose pharmacodynamics of oral ABT‐116 (a TRPV1 antagonist) in dogs

Six dogs were used to determine single and multiple oral dose pharmacokinetics of ABT‐116. Blood was collected for subsequent analysis prior to and at 15, 30 min and 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h after administration of a single 30 mg/kg dose of ABT‐116. Results showed a half‐life of 6.9 h, k_el of 0.1/h, AUC of 56.5 μg·h/mL, T_max of 3.7 h, and C_max of 3.8 μg/mL. Based on data from this initial phase, a dose of 10 mg/kg of ABT‐116 (no placebo control) was selected and administered to the same six dogs once daily for five consecutive days. Behavioral observations, heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, thermal and mechanical (proximal and distal limb) nociceptive thresholds, and blood collection were performed prior to and 4, 8, and 16 h after drug administration each day. The majority of plasma concentrations were above the efficacious concentration (0.23 μg/mL previously determined for rodents) for analgesia during the 24‐h sampling period. Thermal and distal limb mechanical thresholds were increased at 4 and 8 h, and at 4, 8, and 16 h respectively, postdosing. Body temperature increased on the first day of dosing. Results suggest adequate exposure and antinociceptive effects of 10 mg/kg ABT‐116 following oral delivery in dogs.     

Comparative analysis of MAPK and PI3K/AKT pathway activation and inhibition in human and canine melanoma

The lack of advanced animal models of human cancers is considered a barrier to developing effective therapeutics. Canine and human melanomas are histologically disparate but show similar disease progression and response to therapies. The purpose of these studies was to compare human and canine melanoma tumours and cell lines regarding MAPK and PI3K/AKT signalling dysregulation, and response to select molecularly targeted agents. Pathway activation was investigated via microarray and mutational analysis. Growth inhibition and cell cycle effects were assessed for pathway inhibitors AZD6244 (MAPK) and rapamycin (PI3K/AKT) in human and canine melanoma cells. Human and canine melanoma share similar differential gene expression patterns within the MAPK and PI3K/AKT pathways. Constitutive pathway activation and similar sensitivity to AZD6244 and rapamycin was observed in human and canine cells. These results show that human and canine melanoma share activation and sensitivity to inhibition of cancer‐related signalling pathways despite differences in activating mutations.     

Tricyclic Guanidine Alkaloids from the Marine Sponge Acanthella cavernosa that Stabilize the Tumor Suppressor PDCD4

A cell-based high-throughput screen that assessed the cellular stability of a tumor suppressor protein PDCD4 (Programmed cell death 4) was used to identify a new guanidine-containing marine alkaloid mirabilin K (3), as well as the known compounds mirabilin G (1) and netamine M (2). The structures of these tricyclic guanidine alkaloids were established from extensive spectroscopic analyses. Compounds 1 and 2 inhibited cellular degradation of PDCD4 with EC₅₀ values of 1.8 μg/mL and 2.8 μg/mL, respectively. Mirabilin G (1) and netamine M (2) are the first marine natural products reported to stabilize PDCD4 under tumor promoting conditions.