Development and testing of a Bayesian population model for the bigeye thresher shark,Alopias superciliosus,in an area subset of the western North Pacific

A Bayesian population modelling tool integrating separable virtual population analysis, per‐recruit models and age‐structured demographic analysis was developed for the bigeye thresher Alopias superciliosus (Lowe) population in an area subset of the western North Pacific. The mortality rates for years 1989–2016 were estimated, various biological reference points and associated risks of decline were also estimated, and alternative harvest strategies for the stock were evaluated. Estimates of the posterior mean of fishing mortality for bigeye thresher shark suggest fishing pressure has been high in recent years (2011–2016). The estimated population growth rate (λ) (without fishing) obtained from age‐structured demographic model was relatively low (λ = 1.01 per year; 95% confidence intervals of 1.00 and 1.03 per year). Risk analyses revealed that only low levels of fishing pressure (10% of the current fishing pressure) over a wide range of ages could maintain a relatively low risk of population decline for bigeye threshers. Sensitivity testing indicated that the model is robust to prior specification. The developed framework could be used as an assessment tool to evaluate the risk of decline for other widely distributed pelagic shark species where insufficient catch and effort data are available.     

Modelling the impacts of environmental variation on habitat suitability for Pacific saury in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

We developed habitat suitability index (HSI) models for two size classes of Pacific saury Cololabis saira in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. Environmental data, including sea surface temperature, sea surface height, salinity, and net primary production, and catch and effort data from Taiwanese distant‐water stick‐held dip net fisheries during the main fishing season (August–October) during 2002–2015 were used. Habitat preferences and suitable habitat area differed between size classes. The suitable habitat was located between 40–47.5°N and 145–165°E for large‐sized Pacific saury but encompassed a greater area (35–47°N and 140–165°E) for medium‐sized Pacific saury. Both size classes were affected by substantial interannual variation in the environmental variables, which in turn can be important in determining the potential fishing grounds. We found a significant negative relationship between the suitable habitat area and the Niño3.4 indices with a time‐lag of 6 months for the large‐sized (r = ?0.68) and medium‐sized (r = ?0.42) Pacific saury, respectively, as well as the total landings of Pacific saury by all fishing fleets (r = ?0.46). As remotely‐sensed environmental data become increasingly available, HSI models may prove useful for evaluation of possible changes in habitat suitability resulting from climate change or other environmental phenomena and in formulating scientific advice for management.     

Analysis of green total factor productivity trend and its determinants for the countries along silk roads

In coping with increasing energy consumption and the consequential environmental pollution, green development is becoming an important part of social development. Since the inauguration of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative (BRI), economic cooperation between China and other countries along BRI has seen much growth. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the levels of green total factor productivity (GTFP) of the countries in the Silk Roads Economic Belt (B&R) and examine how these levels vary spatially and evolve temporally. In this paper, a panel regression analysis with DEA windows is used to study the spatiotemporal trends of the levels of GTFP. The results are: (1) The B&R countries have seen an increase in their overall levels of GTFP over time; (2) There are regional differences in the levels of GTFP, with higher efficiency in Western Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, and lower efficiency in Southeast and Central Asia; (3) The analysis of GTFP for countries in these regions shows that the efficiencies of most countries have been improving, with that of only a few countries have been decreasing; (4) By using regression analysis, we find that variables such as import, export, industrial structure, and urban affect the B&R countries with growing GTFP.     

Edge effects in tropical dry forests of Madagascar: additivity or synergy?

Context

The study of habitat fragmentation is complex because multiple, potentially synergistic, ecological processes may be acting simultaneously. Further, edge effects themselves may be complex in that additivity from multiple edges can give rise to heterogeneous nearest–edge gradients.

Objectives

We used heat diffusion as a proxy for additive edge effects in two study landscapes in order to test whether two key observations recently attributed to synergy between edge and area effects could be more simply explained by additivity; namely, steeper edge gradients in larger fragments and variation in slopes of species–area relationships as a function of distances to fragment edges.

Methods

We sampled forest structure in northwestern Madagascar at various distances from the edge in fragments and continuous forest and used an inverse modelling approach to parameterize the model. In addition, we applied the model to data from a published study of beetle communities in fragmented forests in New Zealand.

Results

With increasing proximity to edges, woody stem densities decreased and, as predicted, smaller fragments had lower stem densities and less steep edge gradients than larger ones. The model successfully predicted shifts in species–area relationships as a function of nearest–edge distances for beetle species, although observed richness for forest specialists in the smallest fragments was lower than predicted.

Conclusions

Two key observations attributed to synergy between edge and area effects were explained by edge additivity. The model is particularly useful in that it can help to disentangle the complex sets of processes acting in fragmented landscapes.

     

Profits and nitrate leaching under irrigated corn: a simulation

The economic impact of reducing the amount of nitrate leached out of the root zone under irrigation in the arid West was examined. The economic incentives of irrigation management were evaluated under the assumptions of both profit-maximizing and utility-maximizing (in reducing cost and effort expended in irrigation) decision-making criteria. The results indicate that there is a coincidence of interests of the farmer and the environment provided some leaching occurred. If no leaching is allowed, profit decreases markedly. Both behaviors result in less nitrate leaching than less profitable or less utility-producing irrigating practices.     

An Assessment of Mercury in the Form of Amalgam in Dental Wastewater in the United States

An assessment was conducted of the discharge from dental facilities of mercury in the form of amalgam to surface waters in the United States. Two pathways were examined – effluent from publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) and air emissions from sewage sludge incinerators (SSIs). The annual use of mercury in the form of amalgam in the U.S. is approximately 35.2 tons (31.9 metric tons). It was estimated that 29.7 tons (26.9 metric tons) of mercury in the form of amalgam are annually discharged to the internal wastewater systems of dental facilities during amalgam placements and removals. Based on the partial capture of this amalgam in conventional chair-side traps and vacuum filters, the discharge of mercury in the form of amalgam from dental facilities to POTWs was estimated to be 6.5 tons (5.9 metric tons). The discharge of mercury to surface water via POTW effluents and SSI emissions was estimated to total approximately 0.4 tons (0.4 metric tons). A cost-effectiveness analysis determined that the annual cost to the dental industry to reduce mercury discharges through the use of amalgam separators would range from 380 millionto 1.14 billion per ton.     

Metabolic profiling: a new tool in the study of wood formation

In the realm of plant genomics, metabolic profiling has become a valuable tool with which to assess the effect of genetic and/or environmental factors on plant development. This paper reports the first application of metabolic profiling on differentiating xylem tissue of loblolly pine. A protocol is presented for the analysis of loblolly pine xylem tissue. The effects of sample preparation, extraction, and derivatization on the corresponding metabolite profiles and yields have been investigated and are reported. Gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy has been used to quantify >60 polar and lipophilic metabolites from wood-forming tissue. It was possible to assign chemical structures to approximately half of these compounds. Comparison of six loblolly pine genotypes, three high cellulose (50-52%) and three medium (45-48%) cellulose, showed distinct metabolic profiles. Principal component analysis enabled the assignment of metabolic phenotypes using these large data sets. Metabolic phenotype clustering occurred in which the three high-cellulose genotypes were segregated from the medium-cellulose genotypes. These results demonstrate the use of metabolic profiling for the study of wood-forming tissue and as a tool in functional genomics.     

Transformation and sorption of fipronil in urban stream sediments

Fipronil is an urban-use insecticide, and the increased use has led to its frequent detections in urban streams. Most studies on the environmental fate of fipronil so far have focused on soils, and little is known about its behavior in sediment-water systems. In this study, we investigated the transformation and sorption of fipronil in urban stream sediments from California, incubated under facultative and anaerobic conditions. Degradation of fipronil in sediments generally followed exponential decay kinetics, and the first-order half-lives of fipronil were only 4.6-18.5 days in anaerobic sediments. The persistence of fipronil under facultative conditions was considerably longer, with half-lives from 25 to 91 days. Sterilization generally decreased the dissipation of fipronil, indicating that microbial activity was an important factor in fipronil transformations in sediments. Under facultative conditions, fipronil sulfide and sulfone were observed, while only fipronil sulfide was detected in anaerobic samples. The sorption coefficient K d consistently increased with organic carbon contents of sediments. In the same sediment, K d usually also increased with contact time, suggesting decreased availability for aged residues. Results from this study showed that the stability of fipronil in sediments depends closely on the oxygen status and that due to the readily conversion of fipronil to the sulfone and sulfide metabolites, the overall risk assessment of fipronil in surface aquatic systems should take into consideration fipronil as well as its metabolites.     

Substrate utilization by Aspergillus flavus in inoculated whole corn kernels and isolated tissues

Utilization of the major corn (Zea mays) reserve materials (free saccharides, starch, triglycerides, and zein) was monitored during infection of detached kernels by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) over a 12-day period. Inoculated whole kernels were compared to noninoculated kernels. Concentrations of sucrose and raffinose in inoculated seed decreased to nearly zero at 6 days, whereas concentrations of these saccharides in noninoculated seed dropped at a considerably slower rate, and significant levels remained at the end of the incubation period. Triglyceride concentrations remained unchanged in the noninoculated seed but dropped continuously after 2 days in the inoculated seed. Starch and zein concentrations did not change during the 12-day incubation period. Aflatoxin B1 was first detected after 2 days and increased to about 20 microg/g (20,000 ppb) after 12 days. Very low aflatoxin concentrations were detected in the noninoculated seed. Significant concentrations of erythritol, arabitol, and mannitol were produced during infection, with peak concentrations occurring at 8 days. Whole seed and germ tissue appeared to support good fungal growth and aflatoxin production, whereas ground tissues and endosperm did not. A. flavus preferentially utilized saccharides as initial carbon substrates followed by triglycerides. When invading nonwounded corn kernels, the fungus selectively targets the germ tissue where these materials are localized in the highest concentrations.