Thirty years of change and the future of Alaskan fisheries: Shifts in fishing participation and diversification in response to environmental,regulatory and economic pressures

Heterogeneity in human responses and decision‐making can contribute to the resilience of social–ecological systems in the face of environmental, political and economic pressures. In fishery systems worldwide, the ability of harvesters to maintain a diverse portfolio of fishing strategies is important for building adaptive capacity. We used a case‐study approach to examine the complexity of factors that inhibit or promote diversification in fisheries of Alaska, one of the major fishing regions of the world. Through a combination of harvest records and literature review, we explored shifts in participation and portfolio diversity in Alaskan fisheries over three decades. The four case‐studies examined the responses of fishers, fleets and communities to multiple, intersecting pressures, including biological declines, market and price dynamics, fishery privatization and the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. These cases illustrate how stressors acting at multiple scales can encourage or constrain opportunities for diversification, and that these opportunities may be spread inequitably across participants. Overall, we found evidence for reduced participation and increasing specialization in Alaskan commercial fisheries. While numerous factors explain these trends, policies like individual quota systems and the increasing cost of entry into fisheries are forcing consolidation at local to regional scales. A portfolio approach to managing fisheries that reduces barriers to diversification and includes broad representation of resource users and communities in management may help to maintain opportunity and choice for fishers.     

Time-series analysis of delta13C from tree rings. I. Time trends and autocorrelation

Univariate time-series analyses were conducted on stable carbon isotope ratios obtained from tree-ring cellulose. We looked for the presence and structure of autocorrelation. Significant autocorrelation violates the statistical independence assumption and biases hypothesis tests. Its presence would indicate the existence of lagged physiological effects that persist for longer than the current year. We analyzed data from 28 trees (60-85 years old; mean = 73 years) of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl.), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca) growing in northern Idaho. Material was obtained by the stem analysis method from rings laid down in the upper portion of the crown throughout each tree's life. The sampling protocol minimized variation caused by changing light regimes within each tree. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were used to describe the autocorrelation structure over time. Three time series were analyzed for each tree: the stable carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C); discrimination (delta); and the difference between ambient and internal CO(2) concentrations (c(a) - c(i)). The effect of converting from ring cellulose to whole-leaf tissue did not affect the analysis because it was almost completely removed by the detrending that precedes time-series analysis. A simple linear or quadratic model adequately described the time trend. The residuals from the trend had a constant mean and variance, thus ensuring stationarity, a requirement for autocorrelation analysis. The trend over time for c(a) - c(i) was particularly strong (R(2) = 0.29-0.84). Autoregressive moving average analyses of the residuals from these trends indicated that two-thirds of the individual tree series contained significant autocorrelation, whereas the remaining third were random (white noise) over time. We were unable to distinguish between individuals with and without significant autocorrelation beforehand. Significant ARMA models were all of low order, with either first- or second-order (i.e., lagged 1 or 2 years, respectively) models performing well. A simple autoregressive (AR(1)), model was the most common. The most useful generalization was that the same ARMA model holds for each of the three series (delta(13)C, delta, c(a) - c(i)) for an individual tree, if the time trend has been properly removed for each series. The mean series for the two pine species were described by first-order ARMA models (1-year lags), whereas the Douglas-fir mean series were described by second-order models (2-year lags) with negligible first-order effects. Apparently, the process of constructing a mean time series for a species preserves an underlying signal related to delta(13)C while canceling some of the random individual tree variation. Furthermore, the best model for the overall mean series (e.g., for a species) cannot be inferred from a consensus of the individual tree model forms, nor can its parameters be estimated reliably from the mean of the individual tree parameters. Because two-thirds of the individual tree time series contained significant autocorrelation, the normal assumption of a random structure over time is unwarranted, even after accounting for the time trend. The residuals of an appropriate ARMA model satisfy the independence assumption, and can be used to make hypothesis tests.     

Direct inhibition of maintenance respiration in western hemlock roots exposed to ambient soil carbon dioxide concentrations

Root respiration often exhibits a direct and immediate decline with increasing concentrations of ambient soil carbon dioxide concentration ([CO(2)]), and recent evidence suggests this decline may be attributable to a decline in maintenance respiration within the root. If true, this concept could provide a clue to the biochemical process underlying respiratory inhibition as well as improve our knowledge of the timing and degree to which this inhibition occurs in nature. To test the hypothesis that maintenance respiration exhibits a direct, negative response to increasing [CO(2)], we measured total respiration in intact root systems of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) seedlings grown at different relative growth rates and exposed to soil [CO(2)]s ranging from 91 to 7008 &mgr;mol mol(-1). Analysis of covariance was used to separate maintenance from total respiration. Total respiration declined exponentially with increasing [CO(2)]. Maintenance respiration, which comprised 85% of total respiration over all treatments, also declined exponentially with increasing [CO(2)]. Growth respiration was not inhibited at any [CO(2)]. These findings may explain why roots of some fast-growing species do not show [CO(2)] inhibition.     

A regression-based equivalence test for model validation: shifting the burden of proof

Model validation is often realized as a test of how well model predictions match a set of independent observations. One would think that the burden of proof should rest with the model, to force it to show that it can make accurate predictions. Further, one would think that increasing the sample size ought to increase the model's ability to demonstrate its utility. Traditional statistical tools are inappropriate for this because they default to the case that the model and the data are no different, and their ability to detect differences increases with the sample size. These traditional tools are optimized to detect differences, rather than similarities. We present an alternative strategy for model validation that is based on regression and statistical tests of equivalence. Equivalence tests reverse the usual null hypothesis: they posit that the populations being compared are different and use the data to prove otherwise. In this sense, equivalence tests are lumping tests, whereas the traditional statistical tests are splitting tests. To date, model validation with equivalence tests has focused on comparisons of means. Our proposed test checks not only for similarity of means, but also for similarity between individual predictions and observations. The strategy is demonstrated using three case studies that differ in their modeling objectives, and for varied sample sizes. The proposed strategy provides a formal means of model validation that is superior to traditional statistical tests in each case.     

Estimating CO(2) flux from snowpacks at three sites in the Rocky Mountains

Soil surface CO(2) flux (F(s)) is the dominant respiratory flux in many temperate forest ecosystems. Snowpacks increase this dominance by insulating the soil against the low temperature to which aboveground components are exposed. However, measurement of F(s) in winter may be impeded by snow cover. Likewise, developing annual F(s) models is complicated by seasonal variation in root and microbial metabolism. We compared three methods of measuring sub-snow F(s): (1) dynamic chamber measurements at the upper snowpack surface (F(snow)), (2) dynamic chamber measurements at the soil surface via snowpits (F(soil)), and (3) static estimates based on measured concentrations of carbon dioxide ([CO(2)]) and conductance properties of the snowpack (F(diffusional)). Methods were compared at a mid-elevation forest in northeastern Washington, a mid-elevation forest in northern Idaho, and a high-elevation forest and neighboring meadow in Wyoming. The methods that minimized snowpack disturbance, F(diffusional) and F(snow), yielded similar estimates of F(s). In contrast, F(soil) yielded rates two to three times higher than F(snow) at the forested sites, and seven times higher at the subalpine meadow. The ratio F(soil)/F(snow) increased with increasing snow depth when compared across all sites. Snow removal appears to induce elevated soil flux as a result of lateral CO(2) diffusion into the pit. We chose F(snow) as our preferred method and used it to estimate annual CO(2) fluxes. The snowpack was present for 36% of the year at this site, during which time 132 g C m(-2), or 17% of the annual flux, occurred. We conclude that snowpack CO(2) flux is quantitatively important in annual carbon budgets for these forests and that the static and dynamic methods yield similar and reasonable estimates of the flux, as long as snowpack disturbance is minimized.     

High immune diversity in farmed Atlantic salmon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmo salar</Emphasis> L.)

As with any other intensively farmed animal species, the Atlantic salmon has been selectively bred and cross-bred to maximize desirable traits. Selection tends to diminish genetic diversity in target populations, which among other negative effects is hypothesized to decrease their capacity to confront a broad variety of pathogens. We have analyzed mitochondrial (mtDNA) as well as major histocompatibility complex (MHC) DNA sequences from individuals collected from a single aquaculture cage in southern Chile. Interestingly, only two mtDNA haplotypes were obtained; however, several different MH alleles were detected, with divergence values that were compared with those of natural populations of salmonids. Thus, it seems evolutionary processes responsible of keeping MH diversity in the wild managed to retain MH variability in farmed Atlantic salmon, maintaining high immune diversity despite the generally lower levels of observed neutral genetic diversity.     

Self-compatibility and heterosis in white clover (Trifolium repens L.)

Inbred lines of white clover (Trifolium repens L.) have been produced utilising the rare self-fertility (Sf) allele. Twenty-two lines of four distinct groups have been maintained through five generations of selfing by single seed descent. Fourteen lines were used in crosses to produce F¹s. Both parents and hybrids were analysed for a range of morphological characters. Positive heterosis for dry matter production was observed in half the hybrids. No other trait showed significant heterosis. The degree of heterosis appears to be related to the extent of variation in morphological characters between the parental lines, some combinations of lines yielding heterotic hybrids in all cases, others in none. The majority of the F¹ hybrids are superior in terms of dry matter production to eight control varieties. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Height,competition and yield potential in winter wheat

Summary A monogenic dominant male sterility is used for hybrid production in autumn and winter cauliflower. The ratio of male sterile plants in the backcross progenies of autumn cauliflower was 1:1 over five years (1987–1991). However, a significant deficit of male sterile plants was observed in the winter type over the same period.The influence of the temperature on the male sterile phenotype was studied within backcross progenies planted inside polythene tunnels. Six classes of phenotype were defined during the flowering period (from May to November). At low temperature, some male sterile plants developed partial to complete male fertility, whereas at high temperature, male fertile plants became male sterile.Segregation among the progenies of self-pollinated unstable male sterile plants did not deviate from the expected 3:1 ratio. Plants homozygous for the male sterility allele have been revealed by test crosses with a male fertile plant.For use in seed production, stable male sterile plants are vegetatively maintained; however, crossing lines isogenic except at the MS locus would allow male sterile plants to be raised from seed.     

NORIN 10 semi-dwarfism in tetraploid wheat and associated effects on yield

Summary A genetic study of a range of NORIN 10 based semi-dwarf durum wheats showed that only Gai/Rht 1, located on chromosome 4A, was present. No varieties carrying a second Gai/Rht allele were identified and deliberate attempts to introduce Gai/Rht2 into tetraploid wheats have so far been unsuccessful.In a spaced plant trial of homozygous random F₃ lines from two tall x semi-dwarf crosses, the semi-dwarfs has lower ear yields, due mainly to reduced kernel weight, but had higher tiller numbers than the tall genotypes. Although there was no difference in overall plant yield between talls and semi-dwarfs, an analysis of character associations within the semi-dwarf F₃'s showed positive height-yield and height-kernel weight correlations indicating that selection for tall dwarfs may be a useful breeding strategy in tetraploid wheats.