Predicting regeneration establishment in Norway spruce plantations using a multivariate multilevel model

This study predicts the regeneration establishment on 3-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) plantations in southern Finland using regeneration survey data. Regeneration establishment was described by seven response variables: number of planted spruces, natural Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), natural spruces, natural seed-origin birches (Betula pubescens Ehrh. and B. pendula Roth.) and other broadleaves (i.e. sprout-origin birches and other broadleaves than birch), as well as height of crop-tree spruce and dominant height of broadleaves. Due to the multivariate (several responses for each plot) and multilevel (plot, stand, municipality, forest centre) structure, regeneration establishment was modelled by fitting a multivariate multilevel model with explanatory variables such as temperature sum, site fertility, soil quality and method of site preparation. In the model, the numbers of tree seedlings were modelled using over-dispersed Poisson distributed equations, and the tree heights were modelled using normally distributed linear equations. The estimated fixed and random parameters of the equations were logical, and there was no serious bias in predicting the regeneration establishment in the independent test data set. This modelling approach can be used to predict the regeneration establishment stochastically by taking into account the large unexplained variation in regeneration models.     

Shoot growth and crown development: effect of crown position in three-dimensional simulations

Trees have been increasingly considered as modular organisms, with individual shoots forming autonomous units that respond semi-independently to their surrounding environment. However, there is evidence for fairly strict hormonal control of tree crown development. Studies on the hydraulic architecture of trees suggest a closer functional connection between shoots and crown development than is postulated by the theory of branch autonomy. We studied how shoot growth pattern influences growth and crown architecture in young Scots pine trees simulated by the LIGNUM model assuming that (a) the growth of a shoot mainly depends on its light climate and (b) the growth of a shoot is influenced by its position within the crown. We determined shoot position within the crown based on a recently developed vigor index. The vigor index compares the relative axis cross-sectional area from the base of the tree to each shoot and gives a value of 1 to the pathway of the greatest cross-sectional area. All other shoots attain values between 0 and 1 depending on their cross-sectional areas and the cross-sectional areas of the branches leading there from the main axis. The shoot light climate is characterized by annually intercepted photosynthetically active radiation. We compared the results from simulations (a) and (b) against an independent data set. The addition of a within-shoot position index (the vigor index) to our simulation (simulation b) resulted in a more realistic tree form than that obtained with simulation (a) alone. We discuss the functional significance of the results as well as the possibilities of using an index of shoot position in simulations of crown architecture.     

Adaptation of the LIGNUM model for simulations of growth and light response in Jack pine

LIGNUM is a whole tree model, developed for Pinus sylvestris in Finland, that combines tree metabolism with a realistic spatial distribution of morphological parts. We hypothesize that its general concepts, which include the pipe model, functional balance, yearly carbon budget, and a set of architectural growth rules, are applicable to all trees. Adaptation of the model to Pinus banksiana, a widespread species of economic importance in North America, is demonstrated.

Conversion of the model to Jack pine entailed finding new values for 16 physiological and morphological parameters, and three growth functions. Calibration of the LIGNUM Jack pine model for open grown trees up to 15 years of age was achieved by matching crown appearance and structural parameters (height, foliage biomass, aboveground biomass) with those of real trees. A sensitivity study indicated that uncertainty in the photosynthesis and respiration parameters will primarily cause changes to the net annual carbon gain, which can be corrected through calibration of the growth rate. The effect of a decrease in light level on height, biomass, total tree branch length, and productivity were simulated and compared with field data. Additional studies yielded insight into branch pruning, carbon allocation patterns, crown structure, and carbon stress. We discuss the value of the LIGNUM model as a tool for understanding tree growth and survival dynamics in natural and managed forests.     

Cost-effective strategies to conserve boreal forest biodiversity and long-term landscape-level maintenance of habitats

Setting aside parcels of land is the main conservation strategy to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss worldwide. Because funding for biological conservation is limited, it is important to distinguish the most efficient ways to use it. Here, we assess implications of alternative measures to conserve biodiversity in managed boreal forest landscapes. We calculated four alternative spatio-temporal scenarios and compared these to the current management regime over 100-year time period. In the alternative scenarios, a fixed amount of funding was invested in (1) permanent large reserves (each tens of ha in size), (2) permanent small reserves (each a few ha in size), (3) temporary small reserves (based on 10-year contracts with private land owners), and (4) green-tree retention (small groups of trees retained on clear-cuts). To assess biodiversity implications, we used habitat suitability indices to calculate overall habitat availability for five groups of red-listed and habitat-specific species associated with decaying spruce logs. The possibilities for timber harvests did not differ among the scenarios, but biodiversity performance was different. The scenarios with permanent reserves tended to outperform other scenarios, suggesting that conservation policies based on permanent reserves are the most cost-efficient in the long term. Results, however, varied among time scales and species groups. In the short term, a strategy of investment in temporary small reserves was the most efficient. Habitat for species associated with old spruce dead-wood and preferring shade was rare throughout all simulations, and therefore, it is likely that these species cannot be sustained in managed forests. Species that live on fresh dead-wood and are associated with forest edges coped well in all scenarios suggesting that such species will persist in managed landscapes without additional conservation efforts. Explicit definition of conservation objectives and time frames for conservation action are thus prerequisites for successful conservation planning.     

Changing stock of biomass carbon in a boreal forest over 93 years

The growing stock more than doubled from 1.6 to 3.4 million m³ between 1912 and 2005 in forests on an area of 387 km² in southern Finland. The stock expansion continued for 93 years noting interim results, which were available for 1959, 1982, 1994 and 1999. Forested area in the region hardly changed. Carbon sequestration was mainly a result of a long-term recovery from forest degradation, a legacy of land use in the 18th and 19th centuries. Tree demography responded to management change especially of mature stands: Average tree size and stocking density of stands increased. On average the expanding biomass stock sequestered 18 tons C annually per km² (18 g C per m²). In comparison, the emissions of fossil carbon in the region were estimated at 12 tons C per km² (12 g C per m²) on average. However, fossil CO₂ emissions exceeded biomass sequestration in recent decades. The powerful and persistent expansion of the carbon stock was an unintended co-benefit of forestry, which was motivated by the intention to improve timber yield. On the more negative side the change in management introduced clear-cuts, and a loss of diverse elements of the pre-industrial biota.     

Spatial integration of freshwater fish markets in the Northern Baltic Sea area

Freshwater fish species and Baltic salmon (Salmo salar) are important to small-scale fisheries in Finland and Sweden. The formerly local markets for these species have expanded as trade has been opened up to international competition. In this study we use cointegration analysis to test the spatial integration of freshwater fish markets in Finland and between Finland and Sweden. The analysed fish species are salmon, perch (Perca fluviatilis), pikeperch (Sander lucioperca), European whitefish (Goregonus lavaretus) and pike (Exos lucius), and the data covers ex-vessel prices from 1993 or 1995 to 2004. We found that the regional prices in Finland were cointegrated. This indicates that the prices are determined on a single market in Finland. Moreover, the study suggests that Finnish and Swedish markets in Baltic salmon, whitefish, pikeperch and perch were partially integrated, while integration of pike markets could not be found. The political implication is that an essential part of the local small-scale fisheries’ operational environment is determined outside the national borders.