Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts.     

Prevalence and risk factors for intestinal parasite infection in goats raised in Nakhon Pathom Province,Thailand

The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence and risk factors for intestinal parasite infection in goats raised in Nakhon Pathom Province. Fecal samples from 190 goats in 12 herds were collected per rectum. Questionnaires focusing on the general information about the farm and farmers, and management practices on farms were completed. Modified McMaster counting technique was performed to detect eggs of intestinal parasites. Each egg found was classified into three groups of parasites based on its characteristics. Individual and herd prevalence were calculated. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to analyze risk factors of infection. Herd prevalence of intestinal parasite infection was 100%, while individual prevalence was 79.47%. Strongyle group was the most common intestinal parasite found in this study. Moniezia spp. (8/190) and Trichuris spp. (1/190) were also found. The average number of eggs found was 1,176 eggs per gram of feces. Risk factors for intestinal parasite infection were housing system, deworming interval, and type of goat in herd. Goats housed in groups had higher infection rates compared with goats housed individually (odds ratio (OR) = 6.34; P value = 0.009). Goats in herds in which anthelmintic drugs were administered in intervals of greater than 3 months were more likely to become infected with intestinal parasites (OR = 33.07; P value <0.001). Goats in herds that kept only dairy goats were less likely to become infected than herd that kept only meat goats or kept both dairy and meat goats (OR = 46.20 and 8.75; P value <0.001 and 0.011, respectively).     

Seroprevalence of leptospirosis in domesticated Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in north and west Thailand in 2004

Serum samples from Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kanchanaburi, Chiang Mai and Lampang provinces of Thailand were tested using the microscopic agglutination test against 22 serovars of Leptospira interrogans. A titre of more than 1:100 was used as evidence of infection. In northern Thailand, the seroprevalence was 58 per cent and the prevalent serovars were Leptospira interrogans serovar Sejroe, Leptospira interrogans serovar Tarassovi, Leptospira interrogans serovar Ranarum and Leptospira interrogans serovar Shermani. In western Thailand, the seroprevalence was 57 per cent and the prevalent serovars were L Tarassovi, L Sejroe, L Ranarum, Leptospira interrogans serovar Bataviae and L Shermani. These results were similar to studies in domestic livestock and stray dogs in the Bangkok district. Among the elephants from Kanchanaburi there were significant associations between seropositivity and between the camp and between the prevalent serovars and the camp.     

Social Network Analysis for Assessment of Avian Influenza Spread and Trading Patterns of Backyard Chickens in Nakhon Pathom,Suphan Buri and Ratchaburi,Thailand

The aim of this study is to explain the social networks of the backyard chicken in Ratchaburi, Suphan Buri and Nakhon Pathom Provinces. In this study, we designed the nodes as groups of persons or places involved in activities relating to backyard chickens. The ties are all activities related to the nodes. The study applied a partial network approach to assess the spreading pattern of avian influenza. From 557 questionnaires collected from the nodes, the researchers found that the degree (the numbers of ties that a node has) and closeness (the distance from one node to the others) centralities of Nakhon Pathom were significantly higher than those of the others (P < 0.001). The results show that compared with the remaining areas, this area is more quickly connected to many links. If the avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 was released into the network, the disease would spread throughout this province more rapidly than in Ratchaburi and Suphan Buri. The betweenness centrality in each of these provinces showed no differences (P > 0.05). In this study, the nodes that play an important role in all networks are farmers who raise consumable chicken, farmers who raise both consumable chicken and fighting cocks, farmers’ households that connect with dominant nodes, and the owners and observers of fighting cocks at arenas and training fields. In this study, we did not find cut points or blocks in the network. Moreover, we detected a random network in all provinces. Thus, connectivity between the nodes covers long or short distances, with less predictable behaviour. Finally, this study suggests that activities between the important nodes must receive special attention for disease control during future disease outbreaks.     

Effects of Amylopectin Branch Chain Length and Amylose Content on the Gelatinization and Pasting Properties of Starch

Structures and properties of starches isolated from different botanical sources were investigated. Apparent and absolute amylose contents of starches were determined by measuring the iodine affinity of defatted whole starch and of fractionated and purified amylopectin. Branch chain-length distributions of amylopectins were analyzed quantitatively using a high-performance anion-exchange chromatography system equipped with a postcolumn enzyme reactor and a pulsed amperometric detector. Thermal and pasting properties were measured using differential scanning calorimetry and a rapid viscoanalyzer, respectively. Absolute amylose contents of most of the starches studied were lower than their apparent amylose contents. This difference correlated with the number of very long branch chains of amylopectin. Studies of amylopectin structures showed that each starch had a distinct branch chain-length distribution profile. Average degrees of polymerization (dp) of amylopectin branch chain length ranged from 18.8 for waxy rice to 30.7 for high-amylose maize VII. Compared with X-ray A-type starches, B-type starches had longer chains. A shoulder of dp 18–21 (chain length of 6.3–7.4 nm) was found in many starches; the chain length of 6.3–7.4 nm was in the proximity of the length of the amylopectin crystalline region. Starches with short average amylopectin branch chain lengths (e.g., waxy rice and sweet rice starch), with large proportions of short branch chains (dp 11–16) relative to the shoulder of dp 18–21 (e.g., wheat and barley starch), and with high starch phosphate monoester content (e.g., potato starch) displayed low gelatinization temperatures. Amylose contents and amylopectin branch chain-length distributions predominantly affected the pasting properties of starch.