Estimating the Risk of a Crop Epidemic From Coincident Spatio-temporal Processes

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB), or “scab,” is a very destructive disease that affects wheat crops. Recent research has resulted in accurate weather-driven models that estimate the probability of an FHB epidemic based on experiments. However, these predictions ignore two crucial aspects of FHB epidemics: (1) An epidemic is very unlikely to occur unless the plants are flowering, and (2) FHB spreads by its spores, resulting in spatial and temporal dependence in risk. We develop a new approach that combines existing weather-based probabilities with information on flowering dates from survey data, while simultaneously accounting for spatial and temporal dependence. Our model combines two space-time processes, one associated with pure weather-based FHB risks and the other associated with flowering date probabilities. To allow for scalability, we model spatiotemporal dependence via a process convolutions approach. Our sample-based approach produces a realistic assessment of areas that are persistently at high risk (where the probability of an epidemic is elevated for extended time periods), along with associated estimates of uncertainty. We conclude with the application of our approach to a case study from North Dakota.     

A Compartmental Model for Meningitis: Separating Transmission From Climate Effects on Disease Incidence

The timing and size of many infectious disease outbreaks depend on climatic influences. Meningitis is an example of such a disease. Every year countries in the so-called African meningitis belt are afflicted with meningococcal meningitis disease outbreaks. The timing of these outbreaks coincide with the dry season that starts in February and ends in late May. There are two main hypotheses about this strong seasonal effect. The first hypothesis assumes that during the dry season there is an increase in the risk that an individual will transition from being an asymptomatic carrier to having invasive disease. The second hypothesis states that the incidence of meningitis increases due to higher transmission of the infection during the dry season. These two biological hypotheses suggest dynamics that would necessitate different public health responses: the first would result in broadly correlated outbreak dynamics, and thus a regional vaccination response; the second would result in locally correlated outbreaks, spreading from location to location, for which a localized response may be effective in containing regional spread. In this paper, we develop a statistical model to investigate these hypotheses. Easily interpretable parameters of the model allow us to study and compare differences in the attack rates, rates of transmission and the possible underlying environmental effect during the dry and non-dry seasons. Standard maximum likelihood or Bayesian inference for this model is infeasible as there are potentially tens of thousands of latent variables in the model and each evaluation of the likelihood is expensive. We therefore propose an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to infer the unknown parameters. Using simulated data examples, we demonstrate that it is possible to learn about some of the important parameters of our model using our methodology. We apply our modeling and inferential approach to data on cases of meningitis for 34 communities in Nigeria from Medecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and World Health Organization (WHO) for 2009. For this particular data set we are able to find weak evidence in favor of the first hypothesis, suggesting a regional vaccination response.     

小麦白粉病的灰色预测与马尔可夫链法预测的研究

 本文应用灰色系统理论,根据沙湾地区15年(1974-1988年)病情指数资料、建立了一套灰色预测GM (1、1)模型。对未来8年病情指数趋势进行研究,并用1986、1987、1988年三年资料进行验证、得到了理想的结果。预测ξ=3%将发生在1988、1990、1991、1992、1996年.ξ=4%将发生在1989、1991、1992、1994、1995年,ξ=5%是将发生在1989、1990、1991年。统统计分析指出、马尔可夫链预测值与灰色预测模型数据是相近数。     

Morphological changes,peptidase activity,and effects of exogenous enzymes in the early ontogeny of Nile tilapia,Oreochromis niloticus

Aquaculture International - During the early ontogeny, the transition from endogenous (yolk protein) to exogenous feeding (artificial diets) represents a critical period linked to the...     

A new approach to fishery waste revalorization to enhance Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) digestion process

The main goal of this research was to analyse in vitro compatibility of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) digestive proteinases and enzymes recovered from species comprising fishery waste as Pleoticus muelleri, Artemesia longinaris and Patagonotothen ramsayi. It evaluated the use of exogenous enzymes as feed supplements to increase digestion efficiency in tilapia fingerlings and juveniles (3.5 ± 0.11 g and 11.6 ± 1.5 g, respectively). We successfully have obtained proteinases from fishery waste as source of exogenous enzymes. P. muelleri and A. longinaris enzymes had more activity of acid and alkaline proteinases than P. ramsayi. SDS‐PAGE gels demonstrated that Nile tilapia digestive proteinases keep their activity when combined with each exogenous proteinase. Exogenous enzymes varied in their ability to enhance hydrolysis of different feed ingredients. P. muelleri by‐products are the best candidates to be employed as feed supplements for tilapia juveniles. Enzymes from this by‐product did not affect the activity and integrity of fish digestive enzymes, improved the hydrolysis of different protein sources (fish meal, squid meal, shrimp meal and soybean meal), and maintained its activity after being exposed to high temperatures and acid pHs. Our findings are applicable to other places where O. niloticus is raised utilizing local fishery waste, and also to different cultured species.     

The dependence of electron transfer efficiency on the conformational order in organic monolayers

The electron transfer through an organized organic monolayer of alkyl chains adsorbed on a silicon wafer has been studied. The silicon was used as an electrode in a three-electrode electrochemical cell, and the current versus voltage response was measured. The results show that when the chains in the monolayer are in the "all trans" configuration, the charge transfer efficiency is higher than when the chains have a "gauche" configuration. A mechanism rationalizing all the observations is suggested.     

Dynamic Models of Animal Movement with Spatial Point Process Interactions

When analyzing animal movement, it is important to account for interactions between individuals. However, statistical models for incorporating interaction behavior in movement models are limited. We propose an approach that models dependent movement by augmenting a dynamic marginal movement model with a spatial point process interaction function within a weighted distribution framework. The approach is flexible, as marginal movement behavior and interaction behavior can be modeled independently. Inference for model parameters is complicated by intractable normalizing constants. We develop a double Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to perform Bayesian inference. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of movement tracks of guppies (Poecilia reticulata).     

Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space–Time Dependence

Projections of future climatic changes are a key input to the design of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Current climate change projections are deeply uncertain. This uncertainty stems from several factors, including parametric and structural uncertainties. One common approach to characterize and, if possible, reduce these uncertainties is to confront (calibrate in a broad sense) the models with historical observations. Here, we analyze the problem of combining multiple climate models using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to derive future projections and quantify uncertainty estimates of spatiotemporally resolved temperature hindcasts and projections. One advantage of the BMA approach is that it allows the assessment of the predictive skill of a model using the training data, which can help identify the better models and discard poor models. Previous BMA approaches have broken important new ground, but often neglected space–time dependencies and/or imposed prohibitive computational demands. Here we improve on the current state-of-the-art by incorporating space–time dependence while using historical data to estimate model weights. We achieve computational efficiency using a kernel mixing approach for representing a space–time process. One key advantage of our new approach is that it enables us to incorporate multiple sources of uncertainty and biases, while remaining computationally tractable for large data sets. We introduce and apply our approach using BMA to an ensemble of Global Circulation Model output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report of surface temperature on a grid of space–time locations.     

Control of Echinococcus granulosus in Uruguay: evaluation of different treatment intervals for dogs.

This study attempted control of transmission of Echinococcus granulosus from dogs to sheep in different areas in the Department of Florida, Uruguay, by treating dogs with praziquantel at intervals of 6, 12 and 16 weeks. The 6-week interval was based on the prepatent period of infection with E. granulosus, the 12- and 16-week intervals were based on the rate of reinfection with tapeworms in dogs in the area. Dogs had become reinfected with E. granulosus between 2 and 4 months after treatment, whereas they became reinfected with the Taenia spp. tapeworms within 2 months of treatment. One year after the start of treatments sentinel lambs were born and grazed the farms in the three treatment areas. Approximately, 15 months later when the sentinel lambs were killed and examined for parasites the six weekly treatments had stopped the transmission of E. granulosus to the sentinel lambs. Treatment of dogs at 12- and 16-week intervals failed to stop transmission of E. granulosus but both the numbers of farms and the numbers of sheep infected with E. granulosus were lower where dogs received 12 weekly treatments compared with dogs receiving 16 weekly treatments and a fourth area where dogs had received no treatments (chi(2)P=0.002). Lambs continued to become infected with the Taenia spp. tapeworms in all the areas. Control was complicated by large changes in the dog population. From a starting population of 1164 dogs in the three treated areas, 832 new dogs, most of these adult hunting dogs, entered the population and 793 dogs were lost from the population.