Magic,Safe and Smart Model Applications at Integrated Monitoring Sites: Effects of Emission Reduction Scenarios

Three well-known dynamic acidification models (MAGIC, SAFE, SMART) were applied to data sets from five Integrated Monitoring sites in Europe. The calibrated models were used in a policy-oriented framework to predict the long-term soil acidification of these background forest sites, given different scenarios of future deposition of S and N. Emphasis was put on deriving realistic site-specific scenarios for the model applications. The deposition was calculated with EMEP transfer matrices and official emissions for the target years 2000, 2005 and 2010. The alternatives for S deposition were current reduction plans and maximum feasible reductions. For N, the NOx and NHy depositions were frozen at the present level. For NOx, a reduction scenario of flat 30% reduction from present deposition also was utilized to demonstrate the possible effects of such a measure. The three models yielded generally consistent results. The ‘Best prediction’-scenario (including the effects of the second UN/ECE protocol for reductions of SO2 emissions and present level for NOx-emissions), resulted in many cases in a stabilization of soil acidification, although significant improvements were not always shown. With the exception of one site, the ‘Maximum Feasible Reductions’ scenario always resulted in significant improvements. Dynamic models are needed as a complement to steady-state techniques for estimating critical loads and assessing emission reduction policies, where adequate data are available.     

Ion mass budgets for small forested catchments in Finland

Ion mass and H⁺ budgets were calculated for three pristine forested catchments using bulk deposition, throughfall and runoff data. The catchments have different soil and forest type characteristics. A forest canopy filtering factor for each catchment was estimated for base cations, H⁺, Cl^? and SO ₄ ^2? by taking into account the specific filtering abilities of different stands based on the throughfall quality and the distribution of forest types. Output fluxes from the catchments were calculated from the quality and quantity of the runoff water. Deposition, weathering, ion exchange, retention and biological accumulation processes were taken into account to calculate catchment H⁺ budgets, and the ratio between external (anthropogenic) and internal H⁺ sources. In general, output exceeded input for Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, HCO ₃ ^? (if present) and A^? (organic anions), whereas retention was observed in the case of H⁺, NH ₄ ⁺ , NO ₃ ^? and SO ₄ ^2? . The range in the annual input of H⁺ was 22.8–26.3 meq m^?2 yr^?1, and in the annual output, 0.3–3.9 meq m^?2 yr^?1. Compared with some forested sites located in high acid deposition areas in southern Scandinavia, Scotland and Canada, the catchments receive rather moderate loads of acidic deposition. The consumption of H⁺ was dominated by base cation exchange plus weathering reactions (41–79 %), and by the retention of SO ₄ ^2? (17–49 %). The maximum net retention of SO ₄ ^2? was 87% in the HietajÄrvi 2 catchment, having the highest proportion of peatlands. Nitrogen transformations played a rather minor role in the H⁺ budgets. The ratio between external and internal H⁺ sources (excluding net base cation uptake by forests) varied between 0.74 and 2.62, depending on catchment characteristics and acidic deposition loads. The impact of the acidic deposition was most evident for the southern Valkeakotinen catchment, where the anthropogenic acidification has been documented also by palaeolimnological methods.     

Modelling crop growth and biomass partitioning to shoots and roots in relation to nitrogen and water availability, using a maximization principle. II. Simulation of crop nitrogen balance

This study analysed of the ability of a crop model to simulate crop nitrogen (N) balance. The model was originally developed to serve as a foundation to develop a decision-making tool to analyse the impact of water management and nitrogen fertilization on crop yield. The model included a dynamic parameter for allocation of dry matter between root and shoot allowing root to shoot ratio to vary according to differing environmental conditions. The new allocation parameter was introduced in order to make the model more applicable under water and nitrogen limited growing conditions. Two wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) data sets were used to test the model simulations. Generally, the model simulations agreed well with the recorded data on crop N uptake. The relationship between the actual and simulated amount of N taken up by the crop was close in the calibration treatments of a greenhouse experiment. The coefficient of determination (r²) of the regression line (simulated value = independent variable, measured value = dependent variable) was 0.90. The r² was 0.83 for the validation data. In the field experiments, the r² values were 0.91 for the calibration data and 0.82 for the validation data. In field data, the model underestimated in some cases the crop N uptake during the period when actual shoot dry weight increased exponentially in spring. Therefore, methods used in computation of nitrogen uptake have to be analysed further. Plant organ N content was simulated satisfactorily for both greenhouse and field data. However, the range over which the simulated values varied was larger than in the actual data.

The results from the study indicate that our model is capable of simulating the crop N balance and we suggest that the model could be used when developing an N application decision tool for field crops. However, the availability of N and soil water were provided as inputs in the present study. Thus, the model should be integrated with models simulating below ground processes in the future. Moreover, the model should be further validated with actual field data.     

Apical Development and Growth of Barley under Different CO2 and Nitrogen Regimes

Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration have stimulated interest in the response of agricultural crops to elevated levels of CO₂. Several studies have addressed the response of C₃ cereals to CO₂, but the interactive effect of nutrient supply and CO₂ on apical development and spikelet set and survival has not been investigated thoroughly. Hence, an experiment was conducted in the greenhouse to evaluate the effect of high (700 μmol CO₂mol^?1 air) and low (400 μmol mol^?1) levels of atmospheric CO₂ on apical development, spikelet set and abortion, and pre- and post-anthesis growth in spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) grown under high N (0.3 g N pot^?1 before sowing ?1–0.11 g N pot^?1 week^?1) and low N (0.3 g N pot^?1) regimes. The plants were grown in 5 L pots. Development of spike was hastened due to CO₂ enrichment, and the C+ plants pollinated few days earlier than the C— plants. Carbon dioxide enrichment had no effect on date of ripening. Development of spike slowed following application of extra N, and plants pollinated 10 days later and matured 2 weeks later when compared with plants under low N. Carbon dioxide enrichment did not affect the number of spikelets at anthesis. Excess N decreased spikelet abortion and the increased maximum number of spikelets under both [CO₂]. Barley plants did not tiller when grown in low [CO₂] and low N. Increased endogenous IAA concentration in those plants, recorded three days before tillers appeared in other treatments, may have contributed to this. Carbon dioxide enrichment increased the C concentration of plants, but decreased the N concentration under high N regime. Both the C and N concentration of plants were increased under high N regime. Carbon dioxide enrichment increased the total dry matter of mature plants by 9 % under high N regime and by 21 % under low N regime. Under high [CO₂] increased kernel number on tiller spikes, and increased kernel weight both on main stem and on tiller spikes resulted in a 23 % increase in kernel yield under low N regime and 76 % increase in kernel yield under high N regime. The rate of N application influenced growth and yield components to a greater extent than CO₂ enrichment. At maturity, plant dry matter, kernel weight, the number of kernels per spike, and the number of spikes per plant were higher under high N regime than under low N regime. Long days (16 h), low light intensity (280 μmol m^?2s^?1), and at constant temperature of 20 °C high [CO₂] increased kernel weight and the number of kernels on tiller spikes under high and low N application rate, but did not increase the number of kernels on main stem spike, or the number of tillers or tiller spikes per plant.     

Fluxes and Trends of Nitrogen and Sulphur Compounds at Integrated Monitoring Sites in Europe

The International Cooperative Programme on Integrated Monitoring (ICP IM) is part of the effects monitoring strategy of the UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. We calculated input-output budgets and trends of N and S compounds, base cations and hydrogen ions for 22 forested ICP IM catchments/plots across Europe. The site-specific trends were calculated for deposition and runoff water fluxes and concentrations using monthly data and non-parametric methods. The reduction in deposition of S and N compounds, caused by the new Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention, was estimated for the year 2010 using atmospheric transfer matrices and official emissions. Statistically significant downward trends of SO₄, NO₃ and NH₄ bulk deposition (fluxes or concentrations) were observed at 50% of the ICP IM sites. Implementation of the new UN/ECE emission reduction protocol will further decrease the deposition of S and N at the ICP IM sites in western and northwestern parts of Europe. Sites with higher N deposition and lower C/N-ratios clearly showed an increased risk of elevated N leaching. Decreasing SO₄ and base cation trends in output fluxes and/or concentrations of surface/soil water were commonly observed at the ICP IM sites. At several sites in Nordic countries decreasing NO₃ and H⁺ trends (increasing pH) were also observed. These results partly confirm the effective implementation of emission reduction policy in Europe. However, clear responses were not observed at all sites, showing that recovery at many sensitive sites can be slow and that the response at individual sites may vary greatly.