Projecting future habitat quality of three midwestern reservoir fishes under warming conditions

Rising temperatures caused by climate change are likely to affect cool‐water and warm‐water fishes differently. Yet, forecasts of anticipated temperature effects on fishes of different thermal guilds are lacking, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Towards this end, we used spatially explicit, growth rate potential (GRP) models to project changes in seasonal habitat quality for a warm‐water piscivore (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides), a cool‐water piscivore (walleye Sander vitreus) and a hybrid piscivore (saugeye S. vitreus × S. canadensis) in two Midwestern reservoirs. We assessed habitat quality for two periods (early and middle 21st century) under two realistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a mid‐century emissions peak and a rapid continuous increase in emissions). Largemouth bass were projected to experience enhanced or slightly reduced habitat during all seasons, and throughout the mid‐21st century. By contrast, walleye habitat was projected to decline with anticipated warming, except during the spring in the smaller of our two study reservoirs and during the fall in the larger of our two study reservoirs. Saugeye habitat was projected to either increase modestly or decline slightly during the spring and fall and declines in habitat quality and quantity that were smaller than those for walleye were identified during summer. Collectively, our findings indicate that climate warming will differentially alter habitat suitability for reservoir piscivores, favouring warm‐water species over cool‐water species. We expect these changes in habitat quality to impact the dynamics of reservoir fish populations to varying degrees necessitating the consideration of climate when making future management decisions.     

Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

气候变化对藏药独一味适生区分布格局的影响

本研究通过实地调查，运用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型和环境气候数据模拟未来气候变化对青藏高原地区藏药独一味（Lamiophlomis rotata（Benth.）Kudo）适生区空间分布格局的影响，探索其适生区变迁规律。通过ArcGIS和SPSS对模拟结果分析显示，当前气候条件下独一味最适宜生长地区主要分布于青藏高原地区的四川与西藏，甘肃与青海交界处，占青藏高原总面积的24.87%，其中西藏自治区适生区面积最大，其次是四川和青海，甘肃和云南占比最小；未来气候变化使适生区几何中心向西南方向迁移97.1 km，且海拔上升267 m；气候变化带来的适生区扩大面积约为退化面积的2倍，各省适生区面积均呈现增加，西藏增加最多，其次是四川，青海略有增加，云南和甘肃变化不大；如果气候变暖持续发生，人工引种驯化应选择海拔相对较高区域，而低海拔地区由于退化风险，应作为物种保护区域重点监测。本研究将为气候敏感地区野生濒危药用植物的引种驯化及资源保护提供参考依据。     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

土地利用方式变化对水循环过程响应机制研究

以挠力河流域为研究区,利用1990年和2013年土地利用类型,结合基于格子玻尔兹曼方法(LBM)的TOPMODEL模型定量评价了土地利用方式变化对水循环时空变化过程的影响。结果表明:基于LBM法的TOPMODEL模型可以很好模拟挠力河流域降雨径流水循环过程,对研究区具有较高的适用性;研究区林地、草地和建设用地面积变化不大,对于土地结构变化贡献比较小,而未利用地和旱田部分转为水田对土地结构变化贡献大;由于种植水田,导致5月到10月间的流域总蒸散发量增加、根系区缺水量减少、非饱和带缺水量减少、地表水量减少、地下水量增加;蒸散发增幅达8.9%,根系区缺水量降幅达10.5%,地表水量减少达43%;水田对水文情势影响的差异主要体现在水稻生育期的差异上,分蘖期对蒸散发量、根系区缺水量和非饱和带缺水量影响较大;水田灌溉对水循环过程的影响按变化幅度从大到小的顺序为非饱和带缺水量、根系缺水量、蒸散发量、入根系区水量、出根系区水量和地下径流量,其中入根系区水量差值和出根系区水量差值接近。     

Estimation of biomass change in montane forests in Norway along a 1200 km latitudinal gradient using airborne laser scanning: a comparison of direct and indirect prediction of change under a model-based inferential approach

The current study compared two approaches for estimating change of aboveground biomass (AGB) in montane forests in Norway using field- and remotely sensed data from airborne laser scanning (ALS) from two points in time (four-year interval). The first was an indirect method that involved modeling and prediction of AGB at two points in time using ALS metrics as predictors, estimating the change from differences between AGB predictions. The second was a direct method, where change was modeled and predicted directly using differences between corresponding ALS metrics derived at the two measurement occasions as predictors, and the estimate was based on the predicted differences. Both methods were applied over a 1500?km long and 250?m wide transect from south to north in Norway comprising 250?m² grid cells. The results showed that the indirect method was more precise than the direct method. The indirect method estimated 0.65?Mg?ha^?1 change in AGB over the observation period, with a corresponding 95% confidence interval of ±0.27?Mg?ha^?1. The corresponding figures for the direct method was 0.54 and ±0.51?Mg?ha^?1. The direct method has been recommended previously. We conclude that the indirect method is both more precise and versatile.     

湘西州1960—2017年气候变化及对农业的影响

为掌握全球气候变暖背景下的湘西州气候变化特征，减缓和适应气候变化对农业生产带来的不利影响。[方法]本研究以湘西州8个县（市）气象台站1960—2017年逐日气象观测数据及古丈国家农业气象一级观测站的观测数据为基础，利用滑动平均、线性拟合、M-K检验、小波分析等，研究1960—2017年湘西州气温、降水、相对湿度、日照时数的变化特征及对农业的影响。[结论]结果表明：年平均气温升温趋势明显，1960—2017年升温0.81℃；气温的年代际变化明显，21世纪后气温明显上升；冬季、春季升温突出，夏季升温不明显；年降水量无显著趋势变化，年际波动较大；相对湿度、日照时数呈减少趋势。水稻、油菜生育期明显缩短，产量下降。[结果]气候变化对农业生产布局、作物生长、产量品质等均有一定影响。     

滦河流域气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响

以滦河流域为研究区域,应用敏感性分析和双累积曲线法分析气候变化和人类活动对研究区径流变化的影响。结果表明:研究区流域径流存在明显的下降趋势,与基准期(1956—1979年)相比,变化期(1980—2013年)径流量减少了52.59mm(50.43%);滦河流域径流对降水的敏感性系数Q/P为0.336 1,对潜在蒸散发的敏感性系数Q/E_0为-0.123 5,气候变化影响量为22.23mm;滦河流域径流变化过程中,人类活动影响量为32.07mm,其贡献率为57.26%,远大于气候变化的影响39.69%,人类活动的影响是导致滦河流域径流减少的主要因素。