2020年通辽市开鲁县气候影响评价

本文采用统计分析方法，对2020年开鲁县国家基准气候站采集的气温、降水、日照等基本气象要素数据和相应历年值进行对比分析，并对局地大风、暴雪等重大灾害性天气进行综合分析，并根据分析结果，作出气候对生产生活影响的综合评价。结果表明，2020年气候条件对全县农业生产及人们的生活有利有弊。     

Glacier mass balance in High Mountain Asia inferred from a GRACE release-6 gravity solution for the period 2002–2016

We provide estimates of glacier mass changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) area from April2002 to August 2016 by employing a new version of gravity solutions of the Gravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE) twin-satellite mission. We find a total mass loss trend of the HMA glaciers at a rateof –22.17 (±1.96) Gt/a. The largest mass loss rates of –7.02 (±0.94) and –6.73 (±0.78) Gt/a are found forthe glaciers in Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas, respectively. Although most glaciers inthe HMA area show a mass loss, we find a small glacier mass gain of 1.19 (±0.55) and 0.77 (±0.37) Gt/a inKarakoram Mountains and Western Kunlun Mountains, respectively. There is also a nearly zero massbalance in Pamirs. Our estimates of glacier mass change trends confirm previous results from the analysisof altimetry data of the ICESat (ICE, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite) and ASTER (AdvancedSpaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) DEM (Digital Elevation Model) satellites inmost of the selected glacier areas. However, they largely differ to previous GRACE-based studies which weattribute to our different post-processing techniques of the newer GRACE data. In addition, we explicitlyshow regional mass change features for both the interannual glacier mass changes and the 14-a averagedseasonal glacier mass changes. These changes can be explained in parts by total net precipitation (netsnowfall and net rainfall) and net snowfall, but mostly by total net radiation energy when compared to datafrom the ERA5-Land meteorological reanalysis. Moreover, nearly all the non-trend interannual masschanges and most seasonal mass changes can be explained by the total net radiation energy data. The massloss trends could be partly related to a heat effect due to increased net rainfall in Tianshan Mountains, QilianMountains, Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas. Our new results for the glacier mass changein this study could help improve the understanding of glacier variation in the HMA area and contribute tothe study of global change. They could also serve the utilization of water resources there and in neighboringareas.     

Change features of time-series climate variables from 1962 to 2016 in Inner Mongolia,China

Detecting change features of climate variables in arid/semi-arid areas is essential for understanding related climate change patterns and the driving and evolution mechanism between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems.This paper takes Inner Mongolia of China,a unique arid/semi-arid ecosystem,as the study area.We first detected trend features of climate variables using the linear trend analysis method and then detected their trend-shift features using the breaks for additive seasonal and trend method based on the time-series of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature datasets from 1962 to 2016.We analyzed the different change features of precipitation and temperature on a regional scale and in different ecological zones to discover the spatial heterogeneity of change features.The results showed that Inner Mongolia has become warmer-wetter during the past 54 years.The regional annual mean temperature increased 0.4°C per decade with a change rate of 56.2%.The regional annual precipitation increased 0.07 mm per decade with a slightly change rate of about 1.7%,but the trend was not statistically significant.The warmer trend was contributed by the same positive trend in each season,while the wetter trend was contributed by the negative trend of the summer precipitation and the positive trend of the other three seasons.The regional monthly precipitation series had a trend-shift pattern with a structural breakpoint in the year 1999,while the regional monthly mean temperature series showed an increasing trend without a periodical trend-shift.After the year 2000,the warmer-wetter trend of the climate in Inner Mongolia was accelerated.The late 20th century was a key period,because the acceleration of the wetter trend in some local zones(I and II)and the alleviation of the warmer trend in some local zones(Ⅶ,Ⅷand IX)occurred simultaneously.Moreover,the change features had a strong spatial heterogeneity,the southeastern and southwestern of Inner Mongolia went through a warmer-drier trend compared with the other areas.The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the climate change features is a necessary background for various types of research,such as regional climate change,the evolution of arid/semi-arid ecosystems,and the interaction mechanisms between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems based on earth-system models in Inner Mongolia.     

1976—2017年青海湖东北部地区极端降水事件变化特征分析

为进一步了解高寒牧区气候变化,依据1976—2017年青海湖东北部海晏站逐日降水资料,采用百分位法确定冬、夏半年极端降雨（雪）阈值并统计极端降水事件,运用线性趋势、R/S和小波分析法分析极端降水事件变化特征、未来演变趋势及周期。结果表明：青海湖东北部地区冬、夏半年极端降水日数和极端降水量呈不显著增加趋势;冬半年极端降水强度和日最大降水量不显著增加,而夏半年不显著减小;极端降水对年降水的贡献率均以不同的速率增加,其中夏半年的极端降水对年降水的影响较大;冬半年降水日数不显著减小,而降水量显著增加,表明冬半年发生短时强降水的几率增大,夏半年的降水日数和降水量增加不明显;未来,冬半年极端降水日数增加趋势将发生转变,极端降水量与之前的变化趋势无关将继续呈现震荡性,其他各要素将持续前期的变化趋势;冬（夏）半年极端降水日数和降水量分别存在明显的周期变化特征。高寒牧区的极端降水研究对于预防短时强降水带来的雪灾、洪涝事件的发生意义重大。     

称重式降水传感器与翻斗雨量传感器测雨性能对比分析

为了观测降水数据的准确性,选取了南通市4个台站2018年4月—10月份的DCS1型称重式降水传感器和SL3-1型翻斗雨量传感器观测的降水数据,分析两者观测的日降水量和降水总量等方面的差异。结果显示：在选取的观测样本中,以人工观测的降雨日数为参考,称重传感器的平均一致率为91.2%;以翻斗传感器观测的降雨日为参考,称重传感器的一致率为94.5%。称重传感器观测的累积降水量与翻斗传感器观测的累积降水量相对平均误差为-1.55%,符合中国气象局规定的相对误差不超过±4%的规范要求。在分析日降水量方面,发现称重传感器比翻斗传感器观测量平均偏小0.29 mm;有明显性降水时,两者在日降水量等级判别上基本一致。称重传感器观测的数据小于翻斗传感器观测的数据概率要高,两种传感器观测的差值分布较为一致。称重传感器在捕捉微量降水的能力不比翻斗传感器差,甚至更好。称重传感器观测的日降水量与翻斗传感器观测的日降水量相关系数为0.99826,达到0.01显著相关的水平。     

浙江省油菜花期降水量风险评估

对浙江省66个县市(区)1971—2014年油菜花期降水量及油菜产量资料进行统计分析,并基于信息扩散的风险评估模型,对浙江省油菜花期降水量在各级降水量下的超越概率进行计算分析,评估各地油菜花期面临的旱涝风险;同时分析了浙江省油菜花期各级降水量风险值与油菜产量变化之间的关系。结果表明:油菜花期降水量严重过剩的风险高值区主要位于浙西南地区,降水量短缺风险高值区主要位于浙江省沿海岛屿及宁波的部分县市;浙江省油菜花期降水量短缺基本可以通过灌溉得到改善,但油菜减产与花期降水量过多显著相关,油菜花期降水量300 mm是油菜是否减产的阈值。该结果可为油菜种植合理布局及农业保险政策提供科学依据。     

福建省典型茶园土壤硒含量及其影响因素研究

采集了福建省60份典型茶园表层土壤(0~20 cm),测定了土壤全硒和有效硒含量,分析了土壤类型、植茶年限和海拔对土壤硒及有效硒含量的影响,并探讨其受土壤理化性质的影响。结果表明,福建省茶园土壤全硒含量范围为0.22~2.20 mg·kg^-1,均值为0.73 mg·kg^-1,有86.67%的茶园土壤硒含量达到富硒土壤标准(>0.4 mg·kg^-1);茶园土壤有效硒含量为5.21~448.86 μg·kg^-1,均值为62.98 μg·kg^-1;土壤硒活化率为1.10%~31.64%,均值为8.76%,硒有效程度较低。砂砾岩和凝灰岩发育的茶园土壤硒和有效硒含量较高,紫色砂岩和河流冲积物发育的茶园土壤硒含量较低;山地草甸土茶园土壤全硒和有效硒含量最高,潮砂土和水稻土硒含量较低;成龄茶园和老茶园土壤全硒和有效硒含量较高,新垦茶园硒含量较低;中高海拔地区茶园土壤全硒及有效硒含量较高,低海拔地区茶园土壤硒含量较低。相关分析表明,茶园土壤硒及有效性主要受土壤有机质和全氮的影响,pH对有机质含量较低的红壤茶园和幼龄茶园有显著影响,有效磷对成龄茶园和中高海拔茶园有显著影响。总体而言,该区域茶园富硒土壤为发展天然富硒茶提供了物源保证,但硒有效程度不高,应针对不同类型茶园采取相应栽培措施(增施有机肥、改良剂和钙镁磷肥)来提高土壤有效硒。     

夏玉米产量时空变化及气候年型分析

定量分析夏玉米同一品种产量及产量构成要素时空变化,探讨造成产量时空差异的气候年型组合变化特征。基于2004～2013年夏玉米种植区郑单958多点田间试验数据分析表明,夏玉米区域平均产量为9 055 kg/hm~2,年际差为1 635 kg/hm~2,变幅为18.1%;地点差4 258 kg/hm~2,变幅为47.1%。夏玉米区域平均千粒重为313 g,年际变幅为13.1%;地点变幅为27.8%。夏玉米区域平均穗粒数为479,年际变幅为18.0%,地点变幅为38.7%。千粒重的增加导致夏玉米产量显著增加。穗粒数显著降低和时空差异大是造成产量波动和时空差异变幅大的主要原因。夏玉米产量和产量构成要素,低产点受各气候要素变化的影响显著;平产点受温度和日最高温度大于33℃的天数影响显著;高产点受降水影响显著。     

冀北地区近50 a马铃薯需水量及水分盈亏时空变化特征

为高效利用水资源,提高农业生产效益,根据联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的参考作物蒸散计算方法和相关作物系数法,利用河北省马铃薯主要种植区域(冀北地区)23个地面气象站的资料,计算了冀北地区近50a(1969—2018年)马铃薯生育期内的需水量和缺水量,并分析了马铃薯生育期内降水量、有效降水量、需水量、缺水量变化趋势,以及不同区域不同生育期马铃薯需水量、缺水量的变化特征。结果表明:1)近50 a冀北地区马铃薯生育期内降水量、有效降水量年际变化可分为2个阶段:1969—2003年呈减少趋势,气候倾向率分别为–15.68 mm·(10a)~(–1)、–6.61 mm·(10a)~(–1);而2004—2018年呈显著增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为60.07 mm·(10a)~(–1)、9.68 mm·(10a)~(–1)。近50 a平均降水量、有效降水量分别为356.5 mm和148.6 mm;空间上均呈自西向东逐渐递减的带状特征。2)近50a马铃薯生育期需水量和缺水量年际变化也表现出1969—2003年减少、2004—2018年增多的趋势,且需水量多的年份缺水量也多,近50 a平均需水量和缺水量分别为497.8 mm、349.1 mm;空间分布上均呈自坝上高原向坝下山地增多特点,且需水量大的地区缺水量也多。3)马铃薯块茎膨大期需水量最多,期间也是缺水量最多的时期。研究结果显示1969—2018年冀北地区马铃薯生育期内水资源一直处于严重亏缺状态,在生产中需充分考虑马铃薯需水量对气象要素变化的响应,加强水分管理,确保水资源高效利用。     

植物病原镰刀菌产生的毒素种类及其危害

镰刀菌(Fusarium spp.)是多种重要农作物的病原体，不仅可造成农作物产量和品质的严重损失还可在离体培养条件下或植物寄主体内产生一系列被称为镰刀菌毒素的次生代谢产物。这些毒素一方面作为致病因子与镰刀菌对宿主植物的致病力密切相关，另一方面可导致家畜生产性能下降和相关病症的出现，进而影响农业生态系统并对人类健康造成威胁。鉴于镰刀菌毒素对农作物生产的影响及其对家畜和人类的毒性作用，目前已有较多关于镰刀菌侵染粮食作物后产生毒素种类的研究，但关于镰刀菌侵染豆科牧草后产生的毒素种类以及毒素在镰刀菌对豆科牧草致病力方面作用的研究则较少。本文对引起主要粮食和饲料作物病害的常见镰刀菌物种产生的主要毒素，以及这些毒素对植物、家畜和人类的危害进行了综述，并对豆科牧草中镰刀菌毒素的研究前景及意义进行了展望。