低风险疾病情境下农村居民健康信息规避行为研究

[目的/意义]本研究旨在揭示低风险疾病情境下农村居民健康信息规避的程度、策略、成因及其关联。[方法/过程]研究采用理论抽样方法和半结构化访谈法收集了江苏省45位农村居民的相关数据。研究采用开放式编码和主轴编码方法对访谈数据进行分析,同时采用社会网络分析软件对规避策略和成因之间的关系进行可视化展示。[结果/结论]（1）农村居民在低风险疾病情境下存在全面型和选择型两种不同程度的健康信息规避。其中,全面型健康信息规避主要发生在信息需求阶段,具体的规避策略为完全不治疗;而选择型信息规避发生在信息获取阶段,具体的规避策略为自己治疗或者拖延治疗。（2）该情境下农村居民健康信息规避的成因主要包括感知风险、对信息源的信任、健康信息素养水平、文化水平、情绪、经济水平、小世界、时间和医疗资源的可及性。（3）农民健康信息规避的成因与规避策略存在特定的关联。文化水平和医疗资源的可及性只对完全不治疗规避策略有影响;情绪因素只对拖延治疗规避策略有影响;健康信息素养水平只对自己治疗规避策略有影响。该研究可为改善农村居民的健康状况提供指导建议。     

土壤调理粉剂处理下茶园土壤重金属污染特征及潜在风险评价

本文以贵州安顺不同土壤调理粉剂处理下“瀑布毛峰”茶园土壤为供试样品,通过样品测试与理化分析,对CK处理(0 kg/hm²)、A处理(600 kg/hm²)、B处理(750 kg/hm²)和C处理(900 kg/hm²)下茶园土壤重金属含量特征及污染水平进行探讨。结果表明：不同土壤调理粉剂处理下,研究区域土壤重金属Cr、Hg、Pb、Cu、Zn、Ni、As和Cd的变异程度各异,且土壤中这8种重金属含量也各不相同,其中pH、Cr、Pb和Ni含量在C处理中最高,As、Hg和Cd含量在A处理中最高,Cu和Zn含量在B处理中最高;对各重金属元素进行相关性分析可知,Ni与Pb之间存在极显著相关性,表明两者之间的同源性极高,其余元素之间相关性特征不明显;由综合污染指数（P_综）得出A处理为轻度污染,CK处理、B处理和C处理均为中度污染,不同处理土壤中Cr均在国家Ⅱ级标准(GB15618—2008)规定范围内,样点达标率为100%,在所选定的污染评价因子中,Cu的贡献率最高,为土壤主要影响因子,其次是Cd和Ni;研究区土壤重金属单项潜在生态风险指数($E_{r}^{i}$)中Hg属于强生态风险,其余7种重金属处于轻微潜在生态风险等级;综合潜在生态风险指数(RI)平均值为196.79,总体处于中等潜在生态风险水平,Hg对RI的贡献率最大,是最主要的生态风险元素。     

Projecting future habitat quality of three midwestern reservoir fishes under warming conditions

Rising temperatures caused by climate change are likely to affect cool‐water and warm‐water fishes differently. Yet, forecasts of anticipated temperature effects on fishes of different thermal guilds are lacking, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Towards this end, we used spatially explicit, growth rate potential (GRP) models to project changes in seasonal habitat quality for a warm‐water piscivore (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides), a cool‐water piscivore (walleye Sander vitreus) and a hybrid piscivore (saugeye S. vitreus × S. canadensis) in two Midwestern reservoirs. We assessed habitat quality for two periods (early and middle 21st century) under two realistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a mid‐century emissions peak and a rapid continuous increase in emissions). Largemouth bass were projected to experience enhanced or slightly reduced habitat during all seasons, and throughout the mid‐21st century. By contrast, walleye habitat was projected to decline with anticipated warming, except during the spring in the smaller of our two study reservoirs and during the fall in the larger of our two study reservoirs. Saugeye habitat was projected to either increase modestly or decline slightly during the spring and fall and declines in habitat quality and quantity that were smaller than those for walleye were identified during summer. Collectively, our findings indicate that climate warming will differentially alter habitat suitability for reservoir piscivores, favouring warm‐water species over cool‐water species. We expect these changes in habitat quality to impact the dynamics of reservoir fish populations to varying degrees necessitating the consideration of climate when making future management decisions.     

高压直流接地极对埋地管道腐蚀的影响和管控思考

高压直流输电、油气长输管道建设促进了全国范围内的能源优化配置,但高压直流接地极放电对埋地管道的强直流干扰问题应该引起足够关注。为进一步加强相关风险管控,回顾中国高压直流输电网的发展历程,对高压直流接地极放电影响管道的典型特点进行分析,结合当前实际提出后续风险管控的发展方向。研究结果表明:邻近油气长输管道路由的高压直流输电线路和接地极对管道的影响具有干扰时间不确定、干扰机理复杂、干扰程度大及缓解困难的特点,是管道当前面临的突出安全风险。高压直流输电网调试或故障运行过程中,接地极单极放电会加速管道腐蚀。后续应从加强沟通协调和联合测试,深化腐蚀机理和规律研究,采取综合治理措施等方面提升检测、研究及治理水平,全方位保障国家能源通道的安全稳定。     

洞庭湖烂泥湖水系洪涝灾害风险评估与应对措施

近年来,洪涝灾害是全球发生频繁、危害最严重的气象灾害之一,国内不少学者开始对洪涝灾害进行研究,目前对于洞庭湖区洪涝灾害风险的研究较少。采用综合评价法建立模型对洞庭湖区烂泥湖水系洪涝灾害风险进行评估并提出应对策略,结果表明:新泉寺闸内水位和滞涝水面率的不同导致暴雨对烂泥湖水系的影响程度也不同。同时采取提高滞涝水面率和降低内湖水位,基本可以消除一般年份处于高风险的范围,对于减少低风险范围、增加无风险范围效果更为显著;对于平均风险度为高风险的年份,能够消除大部分高风险区域。     

基于WOFOST模型的辽宁省春玉米干旱灾损风险评估

利用锦州农业气象试验站的作物生长发育和土壤实测数据对WOFOST模型水分胁迫模块进行了调参，适用性验证表明，WOFOST模型适用于辽宁省春玉米生长发育和产量的模拟，辽宁省春玉米受干旱的影响可以利用WOFOST模型较敏感地反映出来。利用调参后的WOFOST模型模拟了全生育期及出苗~拔节、拔节~抽雄、抽雄~乳熟和乳熟~成熟各阶段发生轻、中、重旱情景对辽宁省春玉米产量的影响，并根据模拟结果确定了不同干旱风险等级下辽宁省东、中、西部玉米生产的灾损范围。结果表明：不同生育期发生干旱对产量的影响不同，总体上，抽雄~乳熟期发生干旱的影响最大，其次是拔节~抽雄期，而出苗~拔节期和乳熟~成熟期发生干旱对产量的影响较小，全省春玉米在抽雄~乳熟期发生重旱的减产风险达30%~70%；在相同干旱水平下，不同区域受影响程度也不同，在全生育期及各生育阶段发生轻、中、重旱情景下，干旱导致的减产率总体上表现为由东部向西部地区逐渐加重的趋势，在全生育期重旱情景下，辽宁省东部的春玉米减产率为40%~75%，中部为60%~90%，西部达65%~95%。     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

Habitat associations of the Threatened pugnose minnow (Opsopoeodus emiliae) at the northern edge of the species range

Pugnose minnow (Opsopoeodus emiliae) is a small, reclusive species that is widespread in North America, but is one of the rarest fishes in Canada, found in less than 12 known localities in southwestern Ontario. In contrast to most pugnose minnow populations across the global range, Canadian populations are primarily found in turbid systems, potentially indicating persistence in suboptimal conditions. We used data from a multi-gear species and habitat survey in the Canard River, Ontario, a system dominated by agricultural inputs and the best-known capture site of the species in Canada, to parameterise multi-gear occupancy models for understanding the relationship between pugnose minnow occupancy and microhabitat features, including the role of turbidity. Almost 300 pugnose minnow were captured, representing the largest single collection of the species in Canadian history. The best occupancy model indicated that the probability of pugnose minnow occupancy was highest in the deepest sites with the lowest water clarity (i.e. high turbidity); however, competing models suggested that occupancy was highest at sites with wild celery (Vallisneria americana) and higher water clarity, signifying that habitats with low turbidity may be utilised if sufficient physical cover exists. Together, our results suggest that Canadian pugnose minnow populations occupy and potentially favour turbid conditions, possibly to avoid visual predators in clearer habitats. It remains uncertain whether this abiotic association represents a long-term, viable, local adaptation or whether persistence of pugnose minnow in the Canard River is at risk unless significant water quality improvements can be made.     

Weed seedling emergence in contrasting fodder crop systems following 30 years of cultivation in the lowlands of Northern Italy

Five fodder crop systems of different intensity (ranging from a double annual crop of Italian ryegrass + silage maize to a permanent meadow) were adopted for 30 years in the lowlands of Northern Italy under two input levels, differing mainly in their provision of organic fertiliser (manure). Herbicides were used in the maize crops included in all systems, except the meadow. After 30 years, the weed seedbank of all systems and input levels were assessed by the seedling emergence technique on soil samples from each plot. The cropping systems determined the abundance and composition of the weed assembly. Relatively few, frequent species made up the majority of the emerged seedlings in all systems, and there was no relationship between the total number of emerged seedlings and the mean number of species recorded in the different systems. Arabidopsis thaliana and Oxalis corniculata were abundant in the annual double crop and in the 3- and 6-year rotations that also comprised the annual double crop. These weeds, however, were unlikely to represent a major threat to the crops, due to their vigour and growth period. The permanent meadow tended to greater weed biodiversity than the other systems. The application of manure favoured the seedbank of species such as Lolium multiflorum, Digitaria sanguinalis and A. thaliana. Weed communities in the different systems were mainly determined by herbicide application, (through the ability of weeds to avoid its effects, determined by the weed life history and emergence period) and manure application (with its possible dual effect of spreading weed seeds and favouring nitrogen-responsive weeds).