数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

作物叶面积测量的研究进展

对作物叶面积测量理论和方法进行梳理，综述了基于单叶叶面积、单株叶面积、群体叶面积3个维度进行叶面积测量的研究进展，提出作物叶面积测量的物理原理、数学建模原理、光学特征提取原理的理论分类，从精确度、有损和无损测量2个角度分析了叶面积测量的研究进展，并对叶面积测量技术发展趋势进行展望。     

基于准静态同轴探头模型的土壤复介电测量方法

末端开路同轴探头法测量土壤复介电值用于表征土壤含水率具有准确、快捷的优点。针对目前土壤介电同轴探头集总测量模型没有充分考虑探头的参数以及土壤体积对测量结果影响等问题，基于电磁场理论，对末端开路同轴探头建立了准静态数学模型，适用于土壤的复介电常数准确测量。通过全波软件仿真和模型计算结果对比，以无水乙醇介电实测值和理论值对比，验证模型的准确性。采用本文介电测量模型对不同含水率的黄绵土进行测量计算，复介电常数实部与实测土壤含水率二阶多项式拟合决定系数大于0.965，表明本文所提土壤介电测量方法适用于土壤复介电常数和含水率的测量。     

基于实物期权法的林业投资项目价值评估

当前林业投资项目不再局限于单纯的木材收益，开始将碳汇收益也纳入到项目价值中。而木材和碳汇的价格波动在增加了项目不确定性的同时，对项目价值也产生了一定影响。传统价值评估方法只能评估出项目的静态价值，对于不确定性带来的动态价值无法准确反映。因此，本研究以高峰林场裸地造林项目为例，根据价格波动规律对木材与碳汇的未来价格分别提出了合理假设，并利用Black-Scholes期权定价模型对项目价值进行了评估。通过对评估结果的分析，论证了实物期权法应用于林业投资项目价值评估的可行性及必要性，促进了实物期权法在林业中的进一步发展。     

Effects of Large Saddle Panels on the Biomechanics of the Equine Back During Rising Trot: Preliminary Results

The saddle panels, directly in contact with the horse's back, are likely an important element to optimize the fitting of the saddle, the comfort of the horse, and subsequently, the pain management in dorsalgic horses. The aim of this study was to better understand the effect of the saddle panels on the horse's back, by evaluating a prototype saddle (comfort panels: CP) compared to a standard saddle (STD). The horse's back movements were measured using inertial measurement units (IMUs) fixed at the levels of thoracic vertebrae T6, T12, T16 (under the saddle) and lumbar vertebrae L2 and L5. The centers of mass (COMs) of the horse and the rider and limb's protraction-retraction angles, pressure between saddle and horse's back, and force on the stirrups were measured using respectively 2D motion capture, pressure mat and force sensors in the stirrup leather. Three horses were trotted at the rising trot (sitting: left diagonal-rider seated; standing: right diagonal-rider standing) by the same rider. To compare saddles, linear mixed-effects regression models were used. The estimated means (SE) were calculated. During sitting phase, pressure in the cranial and middle areas of the saddle significantly increased for CP compared to STD (+0.9 (0.2) kPa and +1.0 (0.1) kPa, respectively) whereas caudal pressure decreased (−1.8 (0.4) kPa). Concurrently, the range of motion of angles T12-T16 and T16-L2 under the saddle significantly increased (+1.8 (0.2)° and +2.3 (0.3)°, respectively). The results showed that modifications of the panels' shape not only affect the pressure distribution but also the kinematics of the thoracic and lumbar regions of the equine back.     

System for quasi‐continuous simultaneous measurement of oxygen diffusion rate and redox potential in soil

Oxygen diffusion rate (ODR) and redox potential (E_H) are quantitative indices representing oxygen availability and redox status in soils, which is valuable information for better understanding causes and effects of soil aeration. Because these indices are spatially and temporally highly variable, continuous measurements and adequate numbers of repetitions are essential for accurate in situ monitoring. Here, we present a new, fully automated recording system for in situ measurements where ODR and E_H are measured at the same platinum electrode. The conflict between electrode polarization for ODR and the resulting biased E_H readings is solved by reducing the polarization time and introducing a recovery interval between two consecutive measurement cycles. The shorter polarization time ensures accurate E_H readings. It also results in moderately overestimated ODR readings, but this can be corrected before data analysis. The recovery interval restricts temporal resolution of the E_H‐ODR data pairs to 8 h. We illustrate the use of the system with measurements in a field experiment in Zürich, Switzerland. ODR curves at different depths ran roughly parallel to the corresponding curves of O₂ concentration in soil air but ODR was much more sensitive to precipitation. Low ODR was a necessary but not a sufficient condition for declining E_H. E_H ran parallel to O₂ concentration in soil air rather than to ODR. The fully automated system allows for time series of replicate measurements in multifactorial field studies with reasonable labor requirements. It may be particularly suitable for studies examining the effects of soil tillage, compaction, and irrigation, where structure‐related soil properties such as porosity, gas permeability, and soil aeration play a dominant role.     

不同精度的土壤数据对水质和水量模拟的影响

【背景】模型模拟是研究面源污染的重要手段,建模过程中输入数据的质量是影响模型准确度的重要因素,其中土壤数据作为流域模型的重要输入数据之一,对模型的产流过程有重要的影响。然而,以往的研究多集中于土壤数据精度对水量和水文过程的影响,对水质的研究还比较欠缺。【目的】为丰富该领域建模的先验知识,为流域模型建立过程中的数据选择提供帮助。【方法】采用SWAT（soil & water assessment tool）模型,利用不同精度（1:5万、1:50万和1:100万）的土壤数据进行建模,对凤羽河流域的水量、泥沙、总氮和总磷含量进行了模拟。并采用SWAT-CUP软件进行参数的率定,得到基于3种不同土壤数据的最佳模拟结果。在此基础上,研究不同精度土壤数据对水文响应单元划分、模型参数、水质和水量模拟的影响。【结果】（1）土壤数据对水文响应单元（HRU,hydrologic response unit）的划分数量有明显影响,HRU划分数量的敏感性与划分阈值及土壤图详细程度有关;（2）进行参数率定后模型的表现效果有明显的提高,不同精度的土壤数据对于不同指标（流量、泥沙、总氮和总磷）的模拟效果存在差异,但并非土壤数据精度越高模拟效果越好;（3）随着子流域面积的增大,不同土壤数据提取的土壤属性的平均值趋于一致,且校准过程会对面积较小的子流域产生较大的影响。【结论】因此,在实际的模型模拟中应根据流域的大小和模拟的指标选择土壤数据的精度,同时在模型校准过程中要注意空间尺度的影响。     

基于模型预测控制的农机主从跟随作业控制方法

针对实际环境中由于农业机械（简称农机）作业过程的作业量以及土壤条件的变化等不确定性因素的影响，导致协同作业跟随农机的行驶工况不稳定、跟随协同作业响应慢、控制困难等问题，在综合考虑不确定性以及响应性能的基础上，提出了一种农机跟随分层控制架构，搭建农机田间作业下的纵向跟随动力学模型，并以间距保持、速度跟随、燃油经济性、加速度跟随性能为目标，进行基于模型预测控制（MPC）算法的上层控制器推导，基于前馈以及PI反馈的控制器作为下层控制，以上层控制器获得的控制加速度为目标，进行力矩（电流）跟踪，在保证抗不确定性以及干扰噪声的同时，提高跟随农机的响应能力。通过Matlab/Simulink仿真和田间试验验证，结果表明，该控制方法可以有效解决农机作业的跟随控制问题，与滑模变结构控制器相比，能够实现稳定跟随行驶，且速度误差和加速度误差更小，速度误差控制在-0.29132~0.18001m/s，加速度误差控制在-0.05678~0.05628m/s2，稳定跟随距离误差为±0.45m，具有良好的跟随效果。