基于公共天气预报的三江平原ET0预报模型比较及敏感性分析

为了提出适合我国三江平原的高精度ET0预报方法,基于该区6个气象站点的天气预报数据和实测气象数据,以FAO56-Penman-Monteith(FAO56-PM)公式计算值为基准,比较Hargreaves-Samani(HS)、Thornthwaite(TH)和Blaney-Criddle(BC)3个ET₀预报模型的效果,对最优模型进行敏感性分析。结果表明:3个模型1~7 d预见期平均绝对误差均值分别为0.66、0.65、0.65 mm/d,均方根误差分别为0.93、0.96、0.95 mm/d,相关系数分别为0.857、0.828、0.840。1~5 d预见期最优预报模型为HS模型,6~7 d为TH模型。总体上预报精度由高到低为HS、TH、BC模型,建议采用HS模型在三江平原开展ET₀预报,HS模型预报对最高温预报的敏感性大于最低温。其预报值在夏季受温度预报误差影响最大,冬季最小,4季整体误差较小。研究可为灌溉预报提供较准确的数据基础。     

Accounting for unknown foster dams in the genetic evaluation of embryo transfer progeny

Animals born by embryo transfer (ET) are usually not included in the genetic evaluation of beef cattle for preweaning growth if the recipient dam is unknown. This is primarily to avoid potential bias in the estimation of the unknown age of dam. We present a method that allows including records of calves with unknown age of dam. Assumptions are as follows: (i) foster cows belong to the same breed being evaluated, (ii) there is no correlation between the breeding value (BV) of the calf and the maternal BV of the recipient cow, and (iii) cows of all ages are used as recipients. We examine the issue of bias for the fixed level of unknown age of dam (AOD) and propose an estimator of the effect based on classical measurement error theory (MEM) and a Bayesian approach. Using stochastic simulation under random mating or selection, the MEM estimating equations were compared with BLUP in two situations as follows: (i) full information (FI); (ii) missing AOD information on some dams. Predictions of breeding value (PBV) from the FI situation had the smallest empirical average bias followed by PBV obtained without taking measurement error into account. In turn, MEM displayed the highest bias, although the differences were small. On the other hand, MEM showed the smallest MSEP, for either random mating or selection, followed by FI, whereas ignoring measurement error produced the largest MSEP. As a consequence from the smallest MSEP with a relatively small bias, empirical accuracies of PBV were larger for MEM than those for full information, which in turn showed larger accuracies than the situation ignoring measurement error. It is concluded that MEM equations are a useful alternative for analysing weaning weight data when recipient cows are unknown, as it mitigates the effects of bias in AOD by decreasing MSEP.     

MDV Meq-clustered miRNAs基因缺失BAC克隆株的构建及其体外增殖特性

为构建缺失马立克氏病病毒(Mareks disease virus,MDV)Meq基因簇microRNAs(Meq-clustered miRNAs的突变株,本研究在vv MDV GX0101细菌人工染色体(bacterial artificial chromosome,BAC)克隆的基础上,采用Red/ET同源重组技术将Meq-clustered miRNAs的编码基因进行缺失突变,经PCR鉴定及序列分析证明Meq-cluster miRNAs序列成功缺失后,提取Δmeq-miRNAs BAC DNA,转染鸡胚成纤维细胞(CEF)进行病毒拯救,用SYBR GreenⅠqRT-PCR检测病毒体外增殖特性。结果表明成功拯救出缺失MDV Meq-clustered miRNAs基因的感染性BAC克隆株GX0101Δmeq-miRNAs,且该缺失株与亲本株GX0101BAC具有相似的增殖曲线,Meq-clustered miRNAs是MDV体外复制的非必需基因。MDV Meq-clustered miRNAs基因缺失感染性BAC克隆株的成功构建为进一步研究MDV Meq-clustered miRNAs在MDV致病和致肿瘤方面的作用奠定了基础。     

Effect of reforestation on annual water yield in a large watershed in northeast China

A simplified water balance model in conjunc-tion with an evapotranspiration (ET) model and cumulative forest cover data were used to quantify the changes in annual water yield in response to reforestat...     

Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Its Trend Change in Shaanxi Province Based on SPEI and MI

【Objective】 At present, most drought studies were based on historical drought events to analyze the causes and trends. This paper sought to simulate the drought index method when outputting future meteorological data based on CMIP5 model, and explored the characteristics of past and future drought changes in Shaanxi Province, which could provide a basis for the future management of agricultural water resources in Shaanxi Province. 【Method】Based on the historical data of 18 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province and CMIP5 model, the future meteorological data were output. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) was simulated by comparing three kinds of models. The standard precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) and relative moisture index (MI) were calculated based on the reference crop ET₀ and precipitation data to reflect the drought degree. The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in the past (1958-2017) and in the future (2018-2100) were compared.【Result】Multiple linear regression (MLR) simulation could accurately predict the reference crop ET₀ (RMSE=0.457 mm·d ^-1). In the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the future drought index showed an upward trend. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, there was a sudden change in the drought index in the 1940s. The degree of drought would decrease in the future of Shaanxi Province, and the distribution of drought would be more uneven during the year. In the future, the degree of drought would decrease during summer maize growth season, and the degree of drought would increase during winter wheat growth season.【Conclusion】The characteristics and extent of drought change were different under different RCP scenarios. The changes in drought characteristics reflected by SPEI and MI were basically the same, but there were differences in the changes in some time periods. In order to effectively cope with the negative impact of climate change on dry crop yields, it was necessary to enhance soil water storage and conservation capacity, especially to strengthen drought resistance during the winter wheat growing season.     

基于MOD16的关中地区实际蒸散发时空特征分析

基于新型MOD16遥感数据集,在产品数据精度验证的基础上,利用GIS与RS技术统计分析关中地区2000—2012年间实际蒸散发(ET)时空演变特征及不同土地利用类型蒸散差异。结果表明:(1)MOD16-ET在关中地区数据精度良好,验证相对误差和相关系数分别为10.38%和0.69;(2)关中地区多年ET均值为520.05 mm·a-1,空间分布大致呈西南-东北递减的三级阶梯格局,四季ET空间分布与多年平均情况基本一致。(3)ET空间分布受地表覆盖类型影响显著,各地类蒸散强度排序依次为林地(623.67 mm·a-1)草地(504.51 mm·a-1)园地(460.86 mm·a-1)农田(448.89 mm·a-1)裸地(408.77 mm·a-1);(4)关中地区ET年际变化趋势以0.87 mm·a-1的速率增加,空间分布呈东部减小西部增加的趋势,其中春、夏季变化区域面积比例较大且以增加趋势为主,秋、冬季节绝大部分地区ET年际变化不甚明显。关中地区年内各月ET大致呈先升后降的变化趋势,且蒸散量主要集中于夏季。     

锡林郭勒草原蒸散发月季动态及相关因子分析

蒸散发(Evapotranspiration,ET)的时空动态对理解水热对植被的影响具有重要作用。利用MODIS MOD16A2和MOD13A3月产品数据及气象数据,通过回归分析和相关分析等方法,研究了锡林郭勒草原不同类型草地近15年(2000—2014年)的ET月季动态及相关因子。结果表明:3—10月的ET均表现出草甸草原典型草原和沙地植被荒漠草原,1—2月和11—12月的ET均表现出草甸草原典型草原和沙地植被荒漠草原。荒漠草原11月ET最大,其余各类草原均在7月达到最大值;各类草原的最小ET均为5月。各类草原3—5月和10月的ET均为下降趋势,而1月、6月、7月和12月的ET均为上升趋势。春季、夏季和秋季的ET均表现出草甸草原典型草原和沙地植被荒漠草原,而冬季的ET表现出草甸草原典型草原和沙地植被荒漠草原。荒漠草原冬季ET最大,其余各类草原的ET均在夏季达到最大值。各类草原春季和秋季的ET均为下降趋势,而夏季和冬季的ET均为上升趋势。Pearson相关分析表明3—10月及春季、夏季和秋季的ET与NDVI和降水量显著正相关,与平均气温显著负相关(p0.05);相反,1—2月、11—12月及冬季的ET与降水量负相关,而与平均气温显著正相关(p0.05)。     

绿洲灌区不同密度玉米群体的耗水特性研究

针对水资源不足严重制约绿洲灌区玉米生产,密植对玉米耗水特性影响研究薄弱,以及生产实践中缺乏调控种植密度以同步提高产量和水分利用效率的理论依据等问题,2012—2015年,以先玉335为参试品种,在相同施肥、灌水制度下,设75 000株hm–2(低,D1)、87 000株hm–2(中,D2)、99 000株hm–2(高,D3)3个密度水平,探讨密度对玉米耗水的时间动态、耗水结构以及利用效率的影响,以期为优化密植增产节水技术提供理论依据。结果表明,随密度增大,玉米全生育期总耗水量(ET)增大,大喇叭口期至吐丝期是耗水量增大的主要时期,高、中密度处理与低密度处理相比,全生育期总耗水量4年平均分别高22.8%、14.4%,大喇叭口期至吐丝期平均分别高28.4%、18.2%,其他生育时期不同处理的耗水量差异不显著。增加密度可降低玉米的无效耗水,提高水分利用率,高、中密度处理较低密度处理全生育期的棵间蒸发量(E)4年平均分别减少56.5 mm、27.6 mm,密植降低棵间蒸发量的主要时期在拔节至灌浆期,其中大喇叭口期至吐丝期的日均棵间蒸发量分别减少0.51 mm、0.27 mm;高、中密度与低密度处理相比,全生育期的E/ET分别降低15.8%、6.2%,其中拔节至大喇叭口期减小幅度最大,分别为22.1%、10.7%。与低密度处理相比,高、中密度处理的籽粒产量分别提高了17.9%、14.8%,但高、中密度处理间的产量差异不显著;高、中、低密度处理的水分利用效率(WUE)分别为18.2、19.3和16.8 kg hm–2 mm–1,中密度处理的WUE显著高于低密度处理;与低密度处理相比,高、中密度处理4年平均灌溉水利用效率(IWUE)分别提高了34.5%、19.6%。本研究说明,在传统供水覆膜条件下,进一步增加种植密度是干旱绿洲灌区提高玉米产量和灌溉水利用效率的可行措施。     

漳卫河平原农业水资源高效利用的模拟研究Ⅰ.参数率定和模拟验证

为了优化漳卫河平原地区的农田灌溉制度，本研究以SWAT（Soiland Water Assessment Tool）为工具，首先运用洗牌复形演化（SCEUA）算法在位于该平原及其比邻地区的2个典型试验站率定冬小麦和夏玉米的作物参数，再以遥感监测的蒸散数据为目标，应用拉丁超立方一单次单因素（LHOAT）方法对SWAT中的相关参数进行敏感性分析，选出了对实际蒸散最敏感的参数，并用序贯不确定性（SUFI-2）算法优化参数进行不确定性分析。在此基础上，对冬小麦一夏玉米轮作体系产量的长期模拟结果进行验证。这些参数率定和模拟验证结果为进一步深入研究该地区水分生产函数和优化灌溉制度奠定了基础。     

辽细辛挥发油气相色谱指纹图谱研究

[目的]对来源于辽宁不同产地辽细辛挥发油的中药指纹图谱进行比较分析,建立辽细辛挥发油的指纹图谱测定方法,为辽细辛药用资源的开发评价和内在质量的控制提供参考依据。[方法]采用水蒸气蒸馏法提取辽细辛挥发油,选择适宜的升温程序,应用气相色谱法对来源于辽宁不同产地辽细辛挥发油的中药指纹图谱进行比较分析。[结果]标示出辽细辛挥发油图谱中10个共有峰,所建立的10批辽细辛挥发油指纹图谱具有良好的相似性,其稳定性、精密度和重复性均符合要求。[结论]该方法可靠,可操作性强,可用于辽细辛药用资源的开发评价和辽细辛内在质量的控制。