Demonstrating freedom from disease using multiple complex data sources 2: case study--classical swine fever in Denmark

A method for quantitative evaluation of surveillance for disease freedom has been presented in the accompanying paper (Martin et al., 2007). This paper presents an application of the methods, using as an example surveillance for classical swine fever (CSF) in Denmark in 2005. A scenario tree model is presented for the abattoir-based serology component of the Danish CSF surveillance system, in which blood samples are collected in an ad hoc abattoir sampling process, from adult pigs originating in breeding herds in Denmark. The model incorporates effects of targeting (differential risk of seropositivity) associated with age and location (county), and disease clustering within herds. A surveillance time period of one month was used in the analysis. Records for the year 2005 were analysed, representing 25,332 samples from 3528 herds; all were negative for CSF-specific antibodies. Design prevalences of 0.1-1% of herds and 5% of animals within an infected herd were used. The estimated mean surveillance system component (SSC) sensitivities (probability that the SSC would give a positive outcome given the animals processed and that the country is infected at the design prevalences) per month were 0.18, 0.63 and 0.86, for among-herd design prevalences of 0.001, 0.005 and 0.01. The probabilities that the population was free from CSF at each of these design prevalences, after a year of accumulated negative surveillance data, were 0.91, 1.00 and 1.00. Targeting adults and herds from South Jutland was estimated to give approximately 1.9, 1.6 and 1.4 times the surveillance sensitivity of a proportionally representative sampling program for these three among-herd design prevalences.     

Host factors associated with the detection of Aeromonas salmonicida and Yersinia ruckeri in Ontario, Canada government fish hatcheries

This paper presents an epidemiological investigation of Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Fish Health Laboratory data from 1981 to 1997, to determine whether fish species and age were associated with lot-level detection of Aeromonas salmonicida and Yersinia ruckeri in hatchery fish. In stepwise logistic regression, the species brook trout and back-cross (lake trout crossed with the hybrid “splake”) were more likely to test A. salmonicida-positive compared to all other species reared in the hatcheries. Similarly, the species brook trout was significantly more likely to test Y. ruckeri-positive compared to all other species. For both pathogens, the 1–5-month age group was associated significantly with detection. These findings suggest that purposive sampling of higher-risk fish lots could increase the likelihood of detecting both study pathogens.     

A quantitative assessment of the validity of animal-health surveys using stochastic modelling

This paper presents a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the efficacy of regional or national surveys aimed at identifying infection in populations of animals. The process of evaluation involves specification or calculation of cluster-level test sensitivity and specificity, which are derived from two probability distributions of the number of individual-level positive tests expected from non-infected and infected clusters, respectively. Probability distributions for the number of positive clusters expected in a situation of freedom from infection and under various levels of cluster prevalence are specified and used to determine survey properties (the survey being considered a diagnostic system), and ROC curves are drawn. Likelihood ratios allow investigators to state the extent to which a survey result is more likely to be observed if the region or country is infected at a given prevalence than if it is free from infection. The result of a survey carried out to investigate the presence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in Switzerland is used to illustrate this approach. The model can be adapted to a wide range of survey designs.     

A simulated surveillance program for bovine paratuberculosis in dairy herds in Norway

Monte Carlo simulation models were used to evaluate the feasibility and potential results of a proposed national survey of the prevalence of bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) in dairy herds in Norway. The expected herd prevalence was assumed to be 0.2% in the simulations. The low sensitivity of the ELISA test, the assumed low herd prevalence, the typical low within-herd prevalence of PTB and the small herd sizes all present problems in detection of the disease. Simulations with 500, 1000, 2500 and 6000 herds tested were done. Our results suggest that a national survey would not be feasible at present, due to the low probability of detecting infected herds and because of the high number of false-positive reactions that would be expected to occur.     

Using a tobit regression model to analyse risk factors for foot-pad dermatitis in commercially grown broilers

A model was developed to explain the influence of different local and regional factors on the prevalence of foot-pad dermatitis in broilers at the time of slaughter. Data from a recent two-year study of broiler foot-health in Sweden were used to construct the model. The model was based on regression analysis, using a Tobit model for censored data. This type of Tobit regression model has been used for several decades in econometrics and can also be found in the medical-scientific literature. It has, however, reportedly not been used in veterinary medicine although there appears to be several situations where it should be considered useful. Week of slaughter was significantly (p<0.001) associated with total foot-pad score, which decreased over time. The birds' age at slaughter was also significantly (p<0.01) associated with total foot-pad score. Five out of the 11 slaughterhouses included in the study were included as significant (p<0.01) variables in the final model. Three feed suppliers (p<0.05) and four regions (p<0.01) were also included as significant variables in the model. There were also significant (p<0.001) interactions between several of these factors (mainly, between the time variable and specific slaughterhouses, feed suppliers or regions, respectively).

The information gathered in this study regarding the influence of a number of risk factors for the development of foot-pad dermatitis and their reciprocal interactions will enable us to modify the Swedish broiler foot-health programme.     

Surveys on Coxiella burnetii infections in Swedish cattle,sheep, goats and moose

Background

Q fever is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii. Prevalence data in ruminant species are important to support risk assessments regarding public and animal health. The aim was to investigate the presence of or exposure to C. burnetii in cattle, sheep, goats and moose, and to compare two enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). National surveys of antibodies against C. burnetii were performed for dairy cattle (n=1537), dairy goats (n=58) and sheep (n=518). Bovine samples consisted of bulk milk, caprine of pooled milk, and ovine of pooled serum. Antibodies were investigated in moose samples (n=99) from three regions. A one-year regional cattle bulk milk survey was performed on the Isle of Gotland (n=119, four occasions). Cattle, sheep and goat samples were analysed with indirect ELISA and moose samples with complement fixation test. For the sheep, goat, and parts of the cattle survey, samples were run in parallel by ELISAs based on antigens from infected ruminants and ticks. Bulk milk samples from the regional cattle survey and vaginal swabs from a subset of the sheep herds (n=80) were analysed for the agent by polymerase chain reaction. Spatial clustering was investigated in the national cattle survey.

Results

The prevalence of antibodies in dairy herds was 8.2% with large regional differences. High risk clusters were identified in the southern regions. The prevalence among dairy herds on the Isle of Gotland varied from 55.9% to 64.6% and 46.4% to 58.9.0% for antibodies and agent, respectively, overall agreement between agent and antibodies was 85.2%. The prevalence of antibodies in sheep was 0.6%, the agent was not detected the vaginal swabs. Antibodies were not detected in goats or moose, although parts of the moose samples were collected in an area with high prevalence in cattle. The overall agreement between the two ELISAs was 90.4%.

Conclusions

The prevalence of antibodies against C. burnetii in dairy cattle in Sweden shows large regional differences. The results suggest that C. burnetii is a rare pathogen among Swedish moose, dairy goat and sheep. ELISAs based on ruminant and tick antigen performed in a similar manner under Swedish conditions.     

Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts.     

Risk assessment and surveillance for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Argentina

An assessment was made of the risks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) occurring in Argentina. Most of the factors associated with the origin and development of the BSE epidemic in the UK are essentially absent. For example, Argentina's large sheep and cattle industries are based on low-cost production systems using grass. Concentrated feeds are not used for sheep, rarely for beef cattle and to a comparatively modest extent for dairy cows. Particularly important are the facts that scrapie (and BSE) has never been reported in Argentina—very small amounts of waste tissues from sheep are rendered to produce meat and bone meal (MBM)—and MBM is not used in concentrated feeds for cattle. We conclude that Argentina has an exceptionally low risk of BSE due to scrapie. There is a very small risk of BSE having been introduced via live animals imported from countries with BSE, but this could only give rise to isolated cases because MBM is not fed to cattle.

A surveillance programme has been carried out based largely on a histological examination of brains from three categories of old dairy cows: animals reported on the suspicion of having neurological disease; animals in poor condition at slaughter; healthy animals randomly selected in the abattoir. No evidence of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy was seen in several sections from each of a total of 1019 brains. We conclude that, for most practical purposes, Argentina may be considered to be free from BSE.     

地高辛标记质粒探针监测卡那霉素耐药性的研究

 用 Eco R 单酶切卡那霉素抗性质粒 ,经 DNA纯化回收 4.34 1kb的目的基因片段。以随机引物法 ,用地高辛进行标记 ,制备成探针 ,成功建立了斑点杂交法和菌落原位杂交法用于检测猪源大肠杆菌对卡那霉素的耐药性 ,结果表明与药敏试验阳性的符合率为 10 0 % ,说明建立的探针技术可以用于猪源大肠杆菌对卡那霉素的耐药性监测。     

European bat lyssaviruses: Distribution, prevalence and implications for conservation

Worldwide, there are more than 1100 species of the Order Chiroptera, 45 of which are present in Europe, and 16 in the UK. Bats are reservoirs of, or can be infected by, several viral diseases, including rabies virus strains (in the Lyssavirus genus). Within this genus are bat variants that have been recorded in Europe; European bat lyssavirus 1 (EBLV-1), European bat lyssavirus 2 (EBLV-2) and, four currently unclassified isolates. Since 1977, 783 cases of EBLVs (by isolation of viral RNA) have been recorded in Europe. EBLV-1 or EBLV-2 has been identified in 12 bat species, with over 95% of EBLV-1 infections identified in Eptesicus serotinus. EBLV-2 is associated with Myotis species (Myotis daubentonii and Myotis dasycneme). A programme of passive surveillance in the United Kingdom between 1987 and 2004 tested 4871 bats for lyssaviruses. Of these, four M. daubentonii (3.57% of submitted M. daubentonii) were positive for EBLV-2. Potential bias in the passive surveillance includes possible over-representation of synanthropic species and regional biases caused by varying bat submission numbers from different parts of the UK. In 2003, active surveillance in the UK began, and has detected an antibody prevalence level of 1-5% of EBLV-2 in M. daubentonii (n = 350), and one bat with antibodies to EBLV-1 in E. serotinus (n = 52). No cases of live lyssavirus infection or lyssavirus viral RNA have been detected through active surveillance. Further research and monitoring regarding prevalence, transmission, pathogenesis and immunity is required to ensure that integrated bat conservation continues throughout Europe, whilst enabling informed policy decision regarding both human and wildlife health issues.