1979—2020年杭州市富阳区土地利用对耕层土壤有机碳储量变化的影响

土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量变化影响显著,在制定土地政策时,必须考虑土地利用变化对土壤碳储量的动态影响。以杭州市富阳区为研究对象,探讨了1979—2006年间土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,并预测评价了县区级土地利用规划政策对土壤碳库的影响。结果显示:研究区1979—2006年间土地利用变化导致全区植被碳总量损失为273.4 Gg,表层土壤(0—20 cm)有机碳总量损失为771.0 Gg,建设占用耕地和林地是导致土壤碳储量下降的主要原因。预测2006—2020年间研究区植被碳损失的年均速率将减至25.93 kg·hm^-2,土壤有机碳损失的年均速率将减至27.48 kg·hm^-2。制定合理政策和有效措施来保护林地,抑制建设用地增长,扭转土壤碳损失趋势势在必行。     

基于距离相关系数和KNN回归模型的森林蓄积量估测研究

【目的】探究Landsat8 OLI数据和KNN算法在森林蓄积量估测中的潜力。【方法】以湖南省湘潭县为研究区,采用Landsat8 OLI数据和同时期的二类调查数据,通过距离相关系数筛选特征,分别采用线性回归模型(MLR)、K-近邻模型(KNN)、距离加权KNN模型(DW-KNN)和优化欧式KNN模型(FW-KNN)对森林蓄积量进行估测。使用十折交叉方法进行精度检验,对检验结果进行对比分析。【结果】3种KNN模型的估测结果均高于传统的线性模型,并且在3种KNN模型中,FW-KNN算法效果最好,决定系数达到0.69,为3种模型中最高;3种KNN模型中,本研究优化欧氏距离KNN模型的估测精度最高,其均方根误差为30.3%,相比于传统KNN模型的均方根误差降低了5.1%,相比于DW-KNN模型降低了3.3%。【结论】采用DW-KNN蓄积量估测结果明显优于其他两种模型,说明通过特征与蓄积量的相关性优化样本间的距离是一种可行的KNN优化方法。     

关于苗木栽培技术的初步探讨

随着人民群众对生活环境和绿化水平要求的不断提升,苗木行业的市场发展可谓越来越蓬勃,行业前景也是越来越光明。因此与之相关的苗木栽培技术也受到越来越多人的关注。但目前我国苗木行业在栽培技术方面仍存在一定程度的欠缺和不足。基于此,着重对苗木栽培前期的选地、选苗等环节及栽植过程中的技术问题进行分析,希望对今后的工作有所借鉴。     

Intensive organic vegetable production increases soil organic carbon but with a lower carbon conversion efficiency than integrated management

Intensive vegetable production in greenhouses has rapidly expanded in China since the 1990s and increased to 1.3 million ha of farmland by 2016, which is the highest in the world. We conducted an 11‐year greenhouse vegetable production experiment from 2002 to 2013 to observe soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics under three management systems, i.e., conventional (CON), integrated (ING), and intensive organic (ORG) farming. Soil samples (0–20 and 20–40 cm depth) were collected in 2002 and 2013 and separated into four particle‐size fractions, i.e., coarse sand (> 250 µm), fine sand (250–53 µm), silt (53–2 µm), and clay (< 2 µm). The SOC contents and δ¹³C values of the whole soil and the four particle‐size fractions were analyzed. After 11 years of vegetable farming, ORG and ING significantly increased SOC stocks (0–20 cm) by 4008 ± 36.6 and 2880 ± 365 kg C ha^?1 y^?1, respectively, 8.1‐ and 5.8‐times that of CON (494 ± 42.6 kg C ha^?1 y^?1). The SOC stock increase in ORG at 20–40 cm depth was 245 ± 66.4 kg C ha^?1 y^?1, significantly higher than in ING (66 ± 13.4 kg C ha^?1 y^?1) and CON (109 ± 44.8 kg C ha^?1 y^?1). Analyses of ¹³C revealed a significant increase in newly produced SOC in both soil layers in ORG. However, the carbon conversion efficiency (CE: increased organic carbon in soil divided by organic carbon input) was lower in ORG (14.4%–21.7%) than in ING (18.2%–27.4%). Among the four particle‐sizes in the 0–20 cm layer, the silt fraction exhibited the largest proportion of increase in SOC content (57.8% and 55.4% of the SOC increase in ORG and ING, respectively). A similar trend was detected in the 20–40 cm soil layer. Over all, intensive organic (ORG) vegetable production increases soil organic carbon but with a lower carbon conversion efficiency than integrated (ING) management.     

基于实物期权法的林业投资项目价值评估

当前林业投资项目不再局限于单纯的木材收益，开始将碳汇收益也纳入到项目价值中。而木材和碳汇的价格波动在增加了项目不确定性的同时，对项目价值也产生了一定影响。传统价值评估方法只能评估出项目的静态价值，对于不确定性带来的动态价值无法准确反映。因此，本研究以高峰林场裸地造林项目为例，根据价格波动规律对木材与碳汇的未来价格分别提出了合理假设，并利用Black-Scholes期权定价模型对项目价值进行了评估。通过对评估结果的分析，论证了实物期权法应用于林业投资项目价值评估的可行性及必要性，促进了实物期权法在林业中的进一步发展。     

Variability in the performance of juvenile Chinook salmon is explained primarily by when and where they resided in estuarine habitats

Estuarine habitats provide rearing opportunities for the juvenile life stage of anadromous fishes. Because survival is positively correlated with juvenile performance, these estuarine habitats play an important role in population abundance and productivity. To provide information for the recovery of several depressed stocks of Chinook salmon in the Columbia River Basin, we sought to identify the factors that explain variability in performance. Using otolith‐derived estimates of juvenile somatic growth rate as an index of recent performance, we observed a negative nonlinear relationship between growth rate and day of year, and a decreasing and increasing trend of growth rate over the 8 years of this study and distance from the river mouth respectively. Using a generalised linear modelling approach, we found that variability in juvenile somatic growth rate was best explained by where and when individuals were collected, their body size, contaminant loads, stock of origin, and whether a fish was hatchery produced or unmarked. Lastly, we argue that a considerable improvement to the growth rate of juveniles in estuarine habitats is physiologically possible. The results of this 8‐year study provide a baseline of the performance of juvenile Chinook salmon to evaluate habitat restoration programs and to compare against future anthropogenic conditions.     

新疆西梅栽培研究进展

西梅的果实是一种具有较高经济价值的储藏器官。新疆是西梅的主要产区之一,为使西梅的果实能具有较高的品质和产量,在适宜砧木的选择、优良品种的搭配、建园模式、高效栽培树形、土肥水管理和病虫害防治等方法和技术上都要有较高的要求。文章综述目前西梅的研究,结合新疆生产现状总结出提高西梅果实品质和产量的一系列方法和措施。     

Evidence of clandestine harvest and failure of conservation policies for Argopecten purpuratus in the Rinconada Marine Reserve (Chile)

1. The study of Argopecten purpuratus reproduction, post‐larval settlement, stock size, and population size structure and shell growth was undertaken in the 2000s in the Rinconada marine reserve (Chile) to evaluate the effectiveness of scallop recruitment and self‐sustainability.
2. The results highlight strong seasonal and inter‐annual variations of environmental conditions and scallop gonadosomatic index, spat collection, benthic distribution, total abundance and population size structure.
3. The Von Bertalanffy growth parameters were L_∞ = 120.12 mm and K = 0.9681; commercial size would be reached in about 17.2 months in the bay. Substrate availability, meteorological conditions, hydrodynamics and illegal harvesting explain spatial and temporal variations in scallop distribution and abundance.
4. Recruitment strength depends on one main cohort from year to year. While recruitment made up 81% and 94% of total abundances in May 2002 and May 2003, respectively, there were no overall density‐dependent relationships between stock size and recruitment. Spawning asynchrony in the bay supports the hypothesis that multiple gamete releases form part of a reproductive strategy in response to environmental variability.
5. The massive disappearance of large‐sized scallops during the study periods was direct evidence of overfishing owing to clandestine harvesting within the marine reserve. The failure of current legislation, strategies and policies for scallop conservation requires new regulations to restore scallop stock size, maintain its reproductive performance and limit illegal harvesting in the Rinconada.
6. A scenario allowing harvesting regulated by stock‐dependent fishing quotas would more efficiently ensure stock recovery and self‐sustainability. The modalities of this new policy are discussed.

     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

An assessment of carcass counting surveys with increasing time lapse following a simulated fish kill on a small upland stream

A simulated fish kill was conducted on a small upland stream in Northern Ireland by planting out hatchery‐produced brown trout Salmo trutta L. carcasses of various size categories. Standard, post‐fish kill, assessment walkover surveys were conducted over time intervals to determine the number of carcasses visible. The sample variance between individual surveyors was generally low, with good agreement between the observed counts for the three, discrete, size fractions of fish up to 72 hr after the simulated fish kill. Despite low discharge rates, shallow water and good accessibility to the experimental stream, only 52% of the small category fish (<8 cm L_F) were recorded 4 hr after the start of the simulated fish kill. Larger carcasses (>17 cm L_F) were more visible, and >90% were detected 48 hr after the start of the simulated fish kill. After 96 hr, all size fractions of carcasses had reduced significantly, and the variability between replicate surveys increased markedly.