气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。     

基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

气候变化对藏药独一味适生区分布格局的影响

本研究通过实地调查，运用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型和环境气候数据模拟未来气候变化对青藏高原地区藏药独一味（Lamiophlomis rotata（Benth.）Kudo）适生区空间分布格局的影响，探索其适生区变迁规律。通过ArcGIS和SPSS对模拟结果分析显示，当前气候条件下独一味最适宜生长地区主要分布于青藏高原地区的四川与西藏，甘肃与青海交界处，占青藏高原总面积的24.87%，其中西藏自治区适生区面积最大，其次是四川和青海，甘肃和云南占比最小；未来气候变化使适生区几何中心向西南方向迁移97.1 km，且海拔上升267 m；气候变化带来的适生区扩大面积约为退化面积的2倍，各省适生区面积均呈现增加，西藏增加最多，其次是四川，青海略有增加，云南和甘肃变化不大；如果气候变暖持续发生，人工引种驯化应选择海拔相对较高区域，而低海拔地区由于退化风险，应作为物种保护区域重点监测。本研究将为气候敏感地区野生濒危药用植物的引种驯化及资源保护提供参考依据。     

Tomato brown rugose fruit disease: current distribution,knowledge and future prospects

Tomato is the most economically important fruit/vegetable crop grown worldwide. However, viral diseases remain an important factor limiting its productivity, with estimated quantitative and qualitative yield losses in tomato crops often reaching up to 100%. Many viruses infecting tomato have been reported, while new viral diseases have also emerged. The climatic changes the world is experiencing can be a contributing factor to the successful spread of newly emerging viruses, as well as the establishment of disease in areas that were previously either unfavourable or where the disease was absent. Because antiviral products are not available, strategies to mitigate viral diseases rely on genetic resistance/tolerance to infection, control of vectors, improvement in crop hygiene, roguing of infected plants and seed certification. Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) is an emerging viral threat to tomato productivity and is currently spreading into new areas, which is of great concern to the growing global production in the absence of mitigation measures. This review presents the current knowledge about ToBRFV and future prospects for an improved understanding of the virus, which will be needed to support effective control and mitigation of the impact it is likely to cause.     

Do tillage and conversion of grassland to cropland always deplete soil organic carbon?

ABSTRACT

Conversion of grassland to cropland is widely reported to deplete soil organic carbon (SOC) largely due to tillage effects on the decomposition of SOC. However, most studies report on long-term changes in SOC following the conversion and little is known about the changes in the short term. Net ecosystem carbon budget (NECB) measures the difference between total C input (i.e., manure, above- and below-ground plant residues) and C loss through heterotrophic respiration (RH). However, most studies that report temporal SOC do not report other components of the NECB like RH, total C inputs and often do not include the cumulative annualized change of these components. This review evaluated the change in C input, RH, NECB and SOC after conversion of permanent/continuous grassland to cropland within 5 years after the conversion. We also reviewed and compared no-tillage and conventional tillage on SOC storage and accumulation. Total C input was higher in grassland than cropland largely due to high root biomass, as opposed to aboveground residue, and therefore grassland tended to have higher NECB. Despite higher NECB in grassland, the SOC stocks in cropland (cornfield) converted from grassland were greater than that in continuous grassland within first 2–3 years of conversion. The combination of manure C addition and tillage in cropland showed potential to maintain NECB and increase SOC. Within the continuous grassland C addition alone increased NECB but did not result in a corresponding increase in SOC. Residue retention and manure addition are recognized as good practices for increasing SOC, this study however, shows that combining them with occasional tillage, especially in managed grasslands, could increase the rate of SOC storage in soils.     

Clostridioides difficile in bat guano

Bats are associated with the emergence of several mammalian diseases. Their sessional migration, and tendency to form large colonies in close proximity to human habitats enables effective intra- and inter-species transmission of pathogens. Clostridioides difficile is an important enteric pathogen in humans and animals; however, the source of its dissemination in the population is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of C. difficile in bats, and to characterize C. difficile isolates.Feces (n = 93) was sampled from bats during their migration across Europe. Eighteen samples (19.4%) were positive for C. difficile; ribotypes 078, 056, and a new ribotype CDB3 were identified.Clostridioides difficile ribotypes 078 and 056 are associated with human and animal diseases. The C. difficile prevalence and ribotypes in this study do not necessarily identify bats as a significant source, but more likely as an indicator of C. difficile perpetuation in the environment.     

土壤氮素内循环对生态覆被变化响应的研究进展

随着人口增长对粮食需求的不断提高,人类对自然生态系统扰动频繁,生态覆被/土地利用变化伴随着土壤活性氮库、氮形态组分及氮素内循环过程的改变,直接影响生态系统的持续与稳定,进而引起全球气候变暖,生物多样性减少等诸多生态环境问题。生态覆被/土地利用变化是全球生态系统变化的重要内容。本综述探讨了活性氮的基本概念及其引发的环境效应,国内外自然生态系统中森林与草地间转换、自然生态系统开垦为农田、弃耕撂荒或退耕还林还草、城市化发展等生态覆被/土地利用变化对土壤氮库消长、氮矿化产物形态变化以及影响氮循环的关键土壤微生物影响等,并探讨了制约氮循环的土壤微生物研究进展。指出农业开垦或农田弃耕撂荒会导致土壤全氮大幅度下降,同时引起土壤硝态氮(NO3--N)增加,造成环境活性氮增加的风险;退耕还林修复生态覆被过程中氮库完全恢复需要漫长的时间;运用现代微生物分子生态学的前沿技术是研究土壤氮循环对生态覆被/土地利用变化响应机理的关键。本综述为自然生态系统的保护与开发利用、退化生态系统的修复与重建以及人工生态系统的科学规划等提供了理论依据。     

近60年河北省冬小麦干旱风险时空规律

干旱是造成作物减产的主要自然灾害,开展作物干旱成因机制和时空特征研究,对于稳定区域粮食生产有重要意义。本研究基于河北省内18个国家标准气象站点1958—2016年的长时间序列观测资料,采用水分亏缺指数(CWDI)作为干旱评价指标,分析了近60年来河北省冬小麦的干旱风险时空格局;通过CWDI对不同气象因子的敏感性分析,进一步探究了冬小麦干旱的成因机制。研究表明,冬小麦生育期需水量和干旱风险呈先增后减再增加的特征,在拔节–抽穗阶段的干旱风险最高,其次是抽穗-成熟阶段。冬小麦全生育期间干旱等级以重旱和特旱为主,特别在其产量形成的关键生长中后期,河北省东南部黑龙港地区面临较高的旱灾风险。冬小麦干旱受降水、气温、湿度等多种因素的影响,其中影响最大的是降水;气温是影响冬小麦生育后期干旱程度的关键因子,伴随近几十年气候变化冬小麦生长期内温度明显升高,将增加冬小麦生长期的耗水量和灌溉需求。本研究揭示了气候变化影响下河北省冬小麦干旱风险的时空演变规律,识别出了干旱灾害的高风险区和关键生育期阶段,可为优化冬小麦灌溉管理和农田防灾减灾提供参考依据。