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1.
王春晓  高峰  陈富桥  曾亮 《茶叶科学》2021,41(6):865-875
“一带一路”倡议是促进中国茶叶出口的重大机遇,但是现有研究缺乏对其实际效果的系统评估。基于2009—2018年中国与40个主要茶叶进口国家和地区的面板数据,运用渐进双重差分模型评估了“一带一路”倡议对中国茶叶出口增长的政策影响。结果表明,在控制其他影响变量的条件下,“一带一路”倡议对于中国茶叶整体出口额增长具有一定的正向影响;进一步的产品异质性分析表明,“一带一路”倡议显著促进了中国绿茶出口的增长,但对红茶出口的作用尚不显著。此外,在控制变量中,国家和地区的人均GDP以及经济开放水平的提高也能够显著促进中国茶叶出口增长。最后对我国茶叶出口贸易如何把握“一带一路”政策机遇提出了对策建议。  相似文献   
2.
  1. The white-spotted wedgefish (Rhynchobatus djiddensis) is a Critically Endangered shark-like ray in the family Rhinidae. Throughout its Western Indian Ocean distribution, it is targeted for its valuable meat and fins and is reported to have undergone major population declines. However, there remains a need for species specific time-series data to accurately assess localized population declines.
  2. This study used two independent long-term (37 and 40 years) time-series catch data from competitive shore angling and shark nets to investigate the size composition and catch per unit effort (CPUE) and conduct a risk assessment for the population on the east coast of South Africa.
  3. From 1977 to 2017 the competitive shore fishery captured 7,703 individual R. djiddensis, whilst shark nets in the same region captured 2,856 individuals from 1981 to 2017. Individuals captured in the nets had a sex ratio of 1.8:1 females to males, and were larger than those caught by the anglers. Although the mean annual sizes of net-caught individuals were above the size of reported sexual maturity, there was little evidence to suggest that any individuals captured were reproductively active.
  4. Both the competitive shore fishery and shark net catches exhibited strong seasonal trends with the majority of R. djiddensis catches occurring from October to May peaking in austral summer. Standardized CPUE from the competitive shore fishery declined substantially between 1977 and 2017 and shark net catches exhibited a significant (p < 0.05) fourfold decline in annual nominal CPUE from 1981 to 2017.
  5. Ultimately, a risk assessment showed a 65.1% decline in abundance over a period of three generation lengths, which indicates that the sampled population of R. djiddensis in South Africa should be classified as Endangered according to the IUCN Red List using criterion A2b. The conservation implications of this are discussed.
  相似文献   
3.
经济政策不确定性对中国粮食安全的影响   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
为探究经济政策不确定性对中国粮食安全的影响,基于2000—2018年中国31个省(市、自治区,统计数据未含港澳台地区)的面板数据,采用PVAR模型,研究经济政策不确定性对中国粮食供给安全、获取安全、稳定性安全和资源安全的影响及区域差异。结果表明:1)总体上,经济政策不确定性对中国粮食安全具有负向影响。2)分区域看,粮食主产区的供给安全受经济政策不确定性负向影响最大,粮食主销区的获取安全受经济政策不确定性冲击最为明显,经济政策不确定性对粮食产销平衡区的冲击最小。3)从粮食安全衡量维度看,经济政策不确定性对供给安全、获取安全和资源安全具有抑制影响,对稳定性安全呈现正向冲击作用。为确保粮食安全,中国应继续加强对粮食生产政策支持、稳定国内粮食价格和健全保障粮食安全的制度机制。  相似文献   
4.
  1. Marine aquaculture, and its fast-growing development, has the potential for wider environmental, ecosystem, and biodiversity impacts. This study assesses the impact of fish farming on a bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population within the Gulf of Ambracia (western Greece) between 2007 and 2018. Two different study areas were defined in order to investigate differences on occurrence, abundance, behaviour, and seasonal fluctuations between them: a ‘control area’, in the north-western side of the Gulf; and a ‘fish farm area’, in the south west, where the highest density of fish farm cages is found.
  2. A total of 169 daily surveys were dedicated to the control area and 74 days were dedicated to the fish farm area, yielding 104 and 37 sightings, respectively. Both the probability of detecting dolphins (U = 6,763.000, P = 0.002) and the group sizes (U = 578.000, P < 0.001) were smaller around fish farms.
  3. Seasonality analyses were restricted to 2007–2008, as this was the period with year-round effort. Results revealed that dolphins were more frequently seen around fish farms in the winter (Kruskal–Wallis test, P = 0.036).
  4. From the 40 identified individuals that were re-sighted at least 10 times during the study period, 21 used the fish farm area less than expected according to sampling effort, and 10 of them were never observed in that area (binomial test, P < 0.05).
  5. The results revealed an impact of fish farms on the distribution of bottlenose dolphins in the Gulf of Ambracia. This information should be taken into consideration when defining ecosystem-based management measures within the management plan, which is currently in preparation for this Natura 2000 site.
  相似文献   
5.
基于不同植被指数的TRMM数据降尺度及误差校正研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
[目的] 对不同时间尺度的热带测雨卫星(TRMM)数据进行空间降尺度及误差校正研究,为华中地区洪涝灾害监测等提供科学参考。[方法] 主要借助增强型植被指数(EVI)和归一化植被指数(NDVI)分别运用地理加权回归(GWR)模型实现2001—2019年华中地区TRMM数据的空间降尺度,并结合地理差异分析(GDA)和地理比率分析(GRA)对年、季和月的降尺度结果进行误差校正,通过气象站数据对校正前后的数据进行对比分析。[结果] ① TRMM数据和气象站数据的决定系数(R2)在年(0.630)、季(0.710~0.865)和月(0.637~0.875)尺度都表明了TRMM数据在华中地区具有较好的适用性;②通过GWR模型实现了TRMM数据空间分辨率由0.25°到1 km的降尺度转换,且TRMMEVI数据精度优于TRMMNDVI数据,说明华中地区TRMM数据与EVI的关系比NDVI更为密切;③对优选的TRMMEVI数据分别进行GDA,GRA校正,结果表明GDA校正结果优于GRA校正,且在降雨量越多的月份校正效果越好。[结论] 在华中地区,EVI比NDVI更加适合TRMM数据降尺度研究。降尺度数据采用GDA校正比GRA校正效果更为显著。  相似文献   
6.
The fall armyworm(FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda is one of the most damaging crop pests, and it has become major threat to the food security of many countries. In order to monitor possible invasion of this pest into China, a searchlight trap was established in March 2018 in western Yunnan Province, China, where it has served as the "first station" for many pests that have migrated from Myanmar to China. A number of suspected FAW moths were captured and identified by DNA sequencing. The results showed that the FAW moth was first captured on December 11 and formed its first immigration peak in mid-December 2018. DNA detection revealed that the early invading FAW population was the "corn-strain". The field survey indicated that the pest mainly colonized corn in Pu'er, Dehong and Baoshan areas. Migration trajectory simulation implied that the moths might have mainly come from the eastern area in the mid-latitude region of Myanmar(20–25°N, 94–100°E). This case study confirmed the first immigration of FAW into China, and will be helpful for guiding monitoring and management work to control this pest.  相似文献   
7.
曾雄生 《中国稻米》2021,27(4):127-132
大致说来,一万年前是中国稻作的起源时期,一千年前则是中国稻作传统的形成时期,而最近一百年则是中国稻作发展最快的时期。用一百年、一千年、一万年这三个大致的时间节点,全景展示中国稻米的历史、稻米对于国计民生的重要性、千百年来中国人民为解决吃饭问题所做的努力、近百年来中国稻作科技的发展与进步,展望未来稻米所可能遇到的挑战和前景。  相似文献   
8.
Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.  相似文献   
9.
西京古道作为第八批全国重点文物保护单位之一,其历史遗存丰富,且孕育着繁茂的野生植物资源。通过对西京古道的植物资源进行全面的调查,鉴定出维管植物有81科217属266种,其中观赏植物资源68科123属163种(含变种)。通过对西京古道乳源段植物资源的实地调查,掌握了古道沿线植物资源现状并分析其观赏特性及应用价值。在对西京古道沿线植物群落景观进行分析的基础上,提出基于石漠化背景下的古驿道植物景观营造方法及生态修复对策。  相似文献   
10.
AquaCrop模型在东北黑土区作物产量预测中的应用研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
东北黑土区是我国玉米和大豆生产基地,为了实现利用AquaCrop模型优化管理和预测产量,本文基于作物小区田间试验和大田观测数据,采用OAT(one factor at a time)法分析了该模型参数的敏感性,率定了敏感性高的参数,并对率定后的模型进行了验证。结果表明:玉米和大豆产量均对影响经济产量的收获指数十分敏感,二者虽然对冠层和根系生长参数都敏感,但有所差异:玉米对冠层衰减系数(canopy decline coefficient,CDC)更为敏感,而大豆则对限制冠层伸展的水分胁迫系数曲线的形状因子(shape factor for water stress coefficient for canopy expansion,Pexshp)更为敏感;玉米因根系深对最大有效根深(maximum effective rooting depth,Zx)更敏感,大豆因根系浅对根区根系伸展曲线的形状因子(shape factor describing root zone expansion,Rexshp)更敏感。由于玉米需水量大,对冠层形成和枯萎前的作物系数(crop coefficient before canopy formation and senescence,KcTr,x)和归一化水分生产力(normalized water productivity,WP*)很敏感,大豆则是一般敏感。率定后模型模拟玉米产量与实测产量的回归系数由0.34提升至0.89,模拟大豆产量与实测产量的回归系数由0.80提升至0.88。进一步用大田实测产量的验证结果表明:预测的玉米与大豆产量与实测产量间回归方程的决定系数(coefficient of determination,R2)分别为0.775和0.779,均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)分别为1.076 t hm^–2和0.299 t hm^–2,标准均方根误差(normalized root mean square error,NRMSE)分别为0.097和0.178,模拟效率(model efficiency,ME)分别为0.747和0.730,率定后的AquaCrop模型能较精准地模拟东北黑土区玉米和大豆产量,可用于产量预测或优化管理。  相似文献   
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