中国茶叶出口的影响因素与贸易效率 ——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析

基于时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型,运用37个代表性国家和地区2001—2017年面板数据,实证分析了中国茶叶出口的影响因素与贸易效率。结果显示,我国茶叶出口贸易效率呈现随时间递增的趋势,但是总体上我国茶叶出口效率处于较低水平,且呈现区域不平衡,对发达经济体的出口贸易效率相对较高,与“一带一路”沿线国家的茶叶贸易效率比较低;我国茶叶出口效率无法完全实现主要是由于技术效率损失;国内供给增加、进口市场容量扩大以及贸易成本降低均对茶叶贸易效率有促进作用;进口市场营商环境改善一定程度上能够抵消贸易非效率的影响,提升我国茶叶出口效率;自由贸易协定对于我国茶叶出口尚未发挥作用。     

基于WT-CNN-LSTM的溶解氧含量预测模型

溶解氧（Dissolved oxygen, DO）含量是影响水产养殖产量的重要因素之一，具有时序性、不稳定性和非线性等特点，且其影响因子过多、存在复杂的耦合关系，难以实现精准预测。针对传统长短时记忆神经网络（Long short term memory, LSTM）预测模型易引入冗余数据，且在训练过长序列时会出现梯度消失现象，从而不能捕捉因子间长期的依赖性问题，提出了基于小波变换（Wavelet transform, WT）、卷积神经网络（Convolutional neural network, CNN）和LSTM的溶解氧含量预测模型。首先，使用WT降低数据噪声；然后，使用CNN深度挖掘各变量之间的潜在关系；最后，利用LSTM的时序性预测2h后的水产养殖溶解氧含量。结果表明，本文提出的WT-CNN-LSTM模型预测效果良好，其平均绝对误差、均方根误差和决定系数分别为0.138、0.229和0.954，比传统LSTM模型分别优化了28.87%、21.03%和4.61%。     

基于部首嵌入和注意力机制的病虫害命名实体识别

为了解决农业病虫害命名实体识别过程中存在的内在语义信息缺失、局部上下文特征易被忽略和捕获长距离依赖能力不足等问题，以农业病虫害文本为研究对象，提出一种基于部首嵌入和注意力机制的农业病虫害命名实体识别模型(Chinese agricultural diseases and pests named entity recognition with joint radical embedding and self attention, RS-ADP)。首先，该模型将部首嵌入集成到字符嵌入中作为输入，用以丰富语义信息。其中，针对部首嵌入设计了3种特征提取策略，即卷积神经网络(Convolutional neural network, CNN)、双向长短时记忆网络(Bidirectional long short term memory network, BiLSTM) 和CNN-BiLSTM；其次，采用多层不同窗口尺寸的CNNs层提取不同尺度的局部上下文信息；然后，在BiLSTM提取全局序列特征的基础上，采用自注意力机制进一步增强模型提取更长距离依赖的能力；最后，采用条件随机场(Conditional random field, CRF)联合识别实体边界和划分实体类别。在包含11个类别和24715条标注样本的农业病虫害自制语料上进行了实验。结果表明，本文模型RS-ADP在该数据集上精确率、召回率和F1值分别为94.16%、94.47%和94.32%；在具体实体类别上，RS-ADP在作物、病害、虫害等易识别实体上F1值高达95.81%、97.76%和97.23%。同时，RS-ADP在草害、病原等难以识别实体上F1值仍保持86%以上。实验结果表明，本文所提模型能够有效识别农业病虫害命名实体，其识别精度优于其他模型，且具有一定的泛化性。     

生物炭的10年土壤培肥效应

大量短期的室内试验和田间试验研究表明,施用生物炭可以增加土壤碳固定,提升土壤肥力和作物产量,然而关于生物炭的长期土壤肥力效应尚不明确。为此,依托持续10年的生物炭的田间定位试验[4个处理:对照(CK)、生物炭4. 5 t·hm-2·年-1(B4. 5)、生物炭9 t·hm-2·年-1(B9. 0)、秸秆还田(SR)],研究了长期施用生物炭对土壤肥力状况的影响。结果显示,与对照相比,长期施用生物炭和秸秆还田对土壤p H值没有显著影响,但容重降低了2. 2%～8. 2%,施用生物炭的土壤电导率降低了1. 5%～7. 8%,而秸秆还田处理土壤电导率提高了4. 7%～13. 4%。施炭和秸秆还田使土壤有机质(SOM)含量增加57. 7%～123. 1%,总氮含量提高11. 3%～21. 9%,总磷没有显著性变化。不同处理土壤NH+4-N含量的差异不显著,而施用生物炭和秸秆还田土壤NO-3-N含量增加3. 8%～67. 1%,且高炭处理的效果显著。土壤有效磷含量显著降低了23. 1%～42. 0%,速效钾含量上升了2. 0%～23. 1%。总体而言,长期施用生物炭提升了土壤肥力,尤其是对土壤有机质的提升有显著的效果。     

农业劳动力结构、粮食生产与化肥利用效率提升——基于随机前沿生产函数与Tobit模型的实证研究

以我国2000—2014年31个省份的面板数据为基础,运用随机前沿生产函数测算了粮食生产技术效率和化肥利用效率,随之用面板Tobit模型主要考察农业劳动力结构变化对化肥利用效率的影响。研究发现,农业劳动力老龄化、女性化与化肥利用效率呈显著的正相关关系,而教育水平与化肥利用效率呈显著的负相关关系,但影响较弱。总体上农业劳动力结构变化有利于化肥利用效率的提高。因此,应加大现代农业生产技术培训力度;开发适合女性劳动者使用的低成本农用机械;加大农村教育投入,同时加强高效施肥等相关培训。     

Conservation needs for the endangered New Zealand sea lion,Phocarctos hookeri

1. Understanding population size and trend is critical information in species management and conservation. To enable accurate population trend estimates, consistent robust monitoring of a species is essential, particularly for a species such as the New Zealand (NZ) sea lion, Phocarctos hookeri , which has experienced an almost continuous decline in pup production since the late 1990s.
2. This research examines the pup production estimates for all known breeding sites for this species, and using a stage‐structured matrix population model, estimates population size and trend between 1995 and 2015.
3. Overall, it is estimated that 2,316 pups were born in 2015, a decrease of 13% since 1995 and a 27% decline since the highest pup production estimate in 1998. This decline has been driven by the significant decline of 48% at the main breeding area, the Auckland Islands since 1998.
4. Using the stage‐structured matrix population model a total species population size of 11,767 sea lions (95% CrI: 10,790–12,923) was estimated. This is the lowest population size of any sea lion species. Trend data for the Auckland Islands indicated that pup and population numbers have decreased at 1.9% yr^?1 in the last 20 yr, while total species population decline is 0.6% yr^?1.
5. Estimates of population trends for this species have been hindered by inconsistent monitoring at most breeding sites. This study strengthens the growing field of research highlighting the need for consistent long‐term monitoring for the conservation management of endangered species.

     

基于城市建设用地扩张预测的城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限确定

确定城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限有利于流转双方做出符合其最大收益的期限选择,降低流转过程的交易成本。以理性选择理论为指导,构建城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限分析框架,以长沙市为例,运用CA-Markov模型模拟城市建设用地扩张,预测城郊村土地征收时间,并选取长沙市望城区某城郊村进行实证分析。分析认为,城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限是土地征收前流转双方收益均达到最大时对应的期限。土地征收前流转次数不同,其最优期限不同。流转双方可根据收益预期和主观意愿,参考城市建设用地扩张趋势预测土地被征收时间以确定最优流转期限。CA-Markov模型在确定土地经营权流转最优期限方面有一定的优势。     

中国茶叶感官审评术语的形成与发展现状

GB/T 14487《茶叶感官审评术语》是我国目前采用穷尽法建立的内容丰富、具有代表性的食品感官术语集,对茶叶感官术语进行了规范化的整理与分类。它遵循感官术语的形成规律,是茶叶感官属性的客观表征,具有鲜明的中国传统语言特色。文章从语言学角度提出了茶叶感官术语“基元语素”概念。GB/T 14487中包括名词、副词、形容词、动词4种类型的基元语素,基元语素构成的术语称为单词（字）型术语,大多数组合术语都是这4种基元语素的排列组合,并可划分为8种不同类型。从术语学角度看,目前茶叶感官审评术语还有部分条目尚需完善。     

Fluctuating salinity effect on Sphoeroides annulatus (Jenyns 1842) physiological responses

Euryhaline fish, such as the Bullseye puffer Sphoeroides annulatus (Jenyns 1842), experience sudden salinity changes in their natural environment, which is more common than the exception, so they must adapt to survive and cope with extreme salt conditions. Therefore, Bullseye puffer juveniles were exposed to short‐term stress (39 hr) by fluctuating salinity conditions (41, 35, 29, 23, 17, 11, 5, 11, 17, 23, 29, 35, 41 psu) with a 3‐hr interval between each point at 26 ± 1ºC in a respirometer chamber and acclimation reservoirs. Responses to oxygen consumption rate (OCR: 23–35 mg O₂ h^–1 kg^–1), ammonium excretion rate (AER: 1–1.85 mg NH4⁺ h^?1 kg^?1), oxygen‐nitrogen atomic ratio (O:N 17–30), osmoregulatory pattern (blood osmotic pressure from 342.4 to 332.8 mmol/kg) and changes in expression levels of Na⁺/K⁺‐ATPase in the gills (higher values at higher salinities) were measured. Although some signs of stress were detected below the iso‐osmotic point (11.4 psu), the puffer fish is a strong euryhaline fish that survives under these conditions. Nonetheless, it could recover when salinity returned to the initial acclimation point because Sphoeroides annulatus is able to live in a wide range of environments with wide natural salinity fluctuations; thus, a common practice in aquaculture has been to expose fish to low salinity for several reasons discussed in this study. This capacity reveals its high plasticity to saline adaptation from 41 to 5 psu an up from 5 to 41 psu, all in less than 2 days.     

Forecast skill for predicting distribution shifts: A retrospective experiment for marine fishes in the Eastern Bering Sea

Forecasting distribution shifts under novel environmental conditions is a major task for ecologists and conservationists. Researchers forecast distribution shifts using several tools including: predicting from an empirical relationship between a summary of distribution (population centroid) and annual time series (“annual regression,” AR); or fitting a habitat‐envelope model to historical distribution and forecasting given predictions of future environmental conditions (“habitat envelope,” HE). However, surprisingly little research has estimated forecast skill by fitting to historical data, forecasting distribution shifts and comparing forecasts with subsequent observations of distribution shifts. I demonstrate the important role of retrospective skill testing by forecasting poleward movement over 1‐, 2‐ or 3‐year periods for 20 fish and crab species in the Eastern Bering Sea and comparing forecasts with observed shifts. I specifically introduce an alternative vector‐autoregressive spatio‐temporal (VAST) forecasting model, which can include species temperature responses, and compare skill for AR, HE and VAST forecasts. Results show that the HE forecast has 30%–43% greater variance than predicting that future distribution is identical to the estimated distribution in the final year (a “persistence” forecast). Meanwhile, the AR explains 2%–6% and VAST explains 8%–25% of variance in poleward movement, and both have better performance than a persistence forecast. HE and AR both generate forecast intervals that are too narrow, while VAST models with or without temperature have appropriate width for forecast intervals. Retrospective skill testing for more regions and taxa should be used as a test bed to guide future improvements in methods for forecasting distribution shifts.