基于Copula 函数的边坡可靠度高效分析方法

将Copula函数与高效蒙特卡洛方法结合,提出了含相关随机变量的边坡可靠度高效分析方法。以两个岩质边坡稳定性问题为例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法相比于直接蒙特卡洛方法在保证边坡失效概率的准确性的同时计算效率更高。Copula函数可以构造出具有不同相关结构的岩土体参数的联合概率分布,与高效蒙特卡洛方法(即蒙特卡洛重要抽样方法和子集模拟)结合能高效地处理含多种相关随机变量的边坡可靠度计算问题,相比于现行的Nataf变换方法结果更能体现岩土边坡真实稳定性。此外,该方法也能高效地计算含有复杂的隐式功能函数的边坡可靠度,研究成果拓展了高效蒙特卡洛方法在边坡可靠度分析中的应用。     

高寒牧区黑麦和箭筈豌豆混播对草产量和营养品质的影响研究

为筛选适宜甘肃高寒牧区的箭筈豌豆与黑麦混播组合及比例，采用裂区设计，研究了3个箭筈豌豆品种（绿箭1号、绿箭2号和绿箭431）与黑麦新品系C33在不同混播比例（0∶100、20∶80、30∶70、40∶60、50∶50、60∶40、70∶30、80∶20、100∶0）下的生产性能及营养品质。结果表明，从混播组合看，A?（C33×绿箭1号）的平均干草产量（7.16 t·hm^-2）和综合评价值（0.860）较高；从混播比例看，B?（60∶40）的平均干草产量（8.01 t·hm^-2）和综合评价值（0.691）最高；混播组合和混播比例间的交互作用表明，A?以B?比例混播时干草产量（9.03 t·hm^-2）和综合评价值（0.711）最高。     

油料作物油脂合成调控研究进展

植物油脂不仅是人类可食用油的主要来源,也是人类生产生活中重要的可再生原料。本文概述了植物油脂的生物合成途径,从母体效应、QTL、GWAS等多个方面总结了油料作物油脂合成的遗传学研究进展,同时探讨了已知的油脂合成调控相关基因的功能。本文综述了该领域的研究现状,为深入了解油料作物油脂合成调控网络提供了参考,也为油料作物的分子改良和遗传育种提供了理论基础。     

土壤管理措施对坡耕地侵蚀退化耕层的恢复作用

【目的】紫色土坡耕地土壤侵蚀严重,研究土壤管理措施对不同侵蚀程度坡耕地耕层侵蚀恢复作用,为紫色土坡耕地耕层质量调控和坡耕地持续利用提供理论及实践依据。【方法】采用单因素方差分析（One-way ANOVA）检验各指标的差异显著性,研究不施肥（CK）、施化肥（F）、施生物炭+化肥（BF）3种土壤管理措施对侵蚀0 cm（S_-0）、侵蚀5 cm（S_-5）、侵蚀10 cm（S_-10）、侵蚀15 cm（S_-15）、侵蚀20 cm（S_-20） 5个不同侵蚀程度坡耕地耕层土壤属性的恢复作用。【结果】（1）随侵蚀程度增加,土壤砂粒含量由38.1%—42.4%逐渐增至44.2%—46.4%,土壤黏粒含量由12.6%—14.8%逐渐减少至9.6%—11.0%;与S_-0、S_-5、S_-10相比,S_-15、S_-20土壤容重显著增大;S_-10侵蚀程度下,土壤抗剪强度最大,在8.71—9.56 kg·cm^-2之间;F、BF处理下S_-15侵蚀程度的土壤稳定入渗率、平均入渗率降幅均最大。（2）不同管理措施下坡耕地耕层土壤属性差异显著,BF处理下土壤砂粒含量小、黏粒含量最大,0—10 cm、10—20 cm土层土壤容重显著低于CK（P<0.05）,土壤总孔隙度、毛管孔隙度均显著高于CK、F处理;BF处理下土壤初始入渗率、稳定入渗率、平均入渗率均最大,CK处理最小;与CK处理相比,BF处理土壤抗剪强度显著增大。（3）随侵蚀程度增加,土壤可蚀性K值显著下降,与S_-0相比,S_-20侵蚀程度下土壤可蚀性K值下降0.1960%—0.2192%;BF处理下土壤可蚀性K值最大,F处理次之,CK最小;S_-10侵蚀程度下F、BF处理的K值均较CK增加幅度最大,分别增加0.0684%、0.1404%。【结论】施加生物炭+化肥在改善土壤物质组成、结构特征、提高土壤蓄渗性能等方面较单施化肥效果更为显著,可有效减轻紫色土坡耕地耕层土壤侵蚀,对侵蚀10 cm条件下的坡耕地耕作层（0—20 cm）土壤的改良效果最佳。     

Change features of time-series climate variables from 1962 to 2016 in Inner Mongolia,China

Detecting change features of climate variables in arid/semi-arid areas is essential for understanding related climate change patterns and the driving and evolution mechanism between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems.This paper takes Inner Mongolia of China,a unique arid/semi-arid ecosystem,as the study area.We first detected trend features of climate variables using the linear trend analysis method and then detected their trend-shift features using the breaks for additive seasonal and trend method based on the time-series of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature datasets from 1962 to 2016.We analyzed the different change features of precipitation and temperature on a regional scale and in different ecological zones to discover the spatial heterogeneity of change features.The results showed that Inner Mongolia has become warmer-wetter during the past 54 years.The regional annual mean temperature increased 0.4°C per decade with a change rate of 56.2%.The regional annual precipitation increased 0.07 mm per decade with a slightly change rate of about 1.7%,but the trend was not statistically significant.The warmer trend was contributed by the same positive trend in each season,while the wetter trend was contributed by the negative trend of the summer precipitation and the positive trend of the other three seasons.The regional monthly precipitation series had a trend-shift pattern with a structural breakpoint in the year 1999,while the regional monthly mean temperature series showed an increasing trend without a periodical trend-shift.After the year 2000,the warmer-wetter trend of the climate in Inner Mongolia was accelerated.The late 20th century was a key period,because the acceleration of the wetter trend in some local zones(I and II)and the alleviation of the warmer trend in some local zones(Ⅶ,Ⅷand IX)occurred simultaneously.Moreover,the change features had a strong spatial heterogeneity,the southeastern and southwestern of Inner Mongolia went through a warmer-drier trend compared with the other areas.The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the climate change features is a necessary background for various types of research,such as regional climate change,the evolution of arid/semi-arid ecosystems,and the interaction mechanisms between climate and arid/semi-arid ecosystems based on earth-system models in Inner Mongolia.     

南充地区晚熟柑桔主要病虫害发生特点及综合防控措施

本文介绍了南充地区晚熟柑桔主要病虫害的种类及为害发生特点,并提出了相应的病虫害综合防控措施,保证晚熟柑桔的正常生长,以期为当地晚熟柑桔生产、种植户节本增收提供参考。     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

Determination of critical nitrogen dilution curve based on leaf area index for winter wheat in the Guanzhong Plain,Northwest China

Excessive use of nitrogen(N) fertilizers in agricultural systems increases the cost of production and risk of environmental pollution. Therefore, determination of optimum N requirements for plant growth is necessary. Previous studies mostly established critical N dilution curves based on aboveground dry matter(DM) or leaf dry matter(LDM) and stem dry matter(SDM), to diagnose the N nutrition status of the whole plant. As these methods are time consuming, we investigated the more rapidly determined leaf area index(LAI) method to establish the critical nitrogen(N_c) dilution curve, and the curve was used to diagnose plant N status for winter wheat in Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China. Field experiments were conducted using four N fertilization levels(0, 105, 210 and 315 kg ha-1) applied to six wheat cultivars in the 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 growing seasons. LAI, DM, plant N concentration(PNC) and grain yield were determined. Data points from four cultivars were used for establishing the N_c curve and data points from the remaining two cultivars were used for validating the curve. The N_c dilution curve was validated for N-limiting and non-N-limiting growth conditions and there was good agreement between estimated and observed values. The N nutrition index(NNI) ranged from 0.41 to 1.25 and the accumulated plant N deficit(N_(and)) ranged from 60.38 to –17.92 kg ha~(-1) during the growing season. The relative grain yield was significantly affected by NNI and was adequately described with a parabolic function. The N_c curve based on LAI can be adopted as an alternative and more rapid approach to diagnose plant N status to support N fertilization decisions during the vegetative growth of winter wheat in Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China.     

Phenotypic plasticity of two invasive alien plant species inside a deciduous forest in a strict nature reserve in Italy

ABSTRACT

Invasive alien plant species (IAPs) represent one of the main biological threats to biodiversity worldwide. Information about their phenotypic plasticity are needed to increase awareness about their future invasive potential. A study about phenotypic plasticity in response to contrasting light regimes and its quantification by a plasticity index (PI) of two IAPs (Ailanthus altissima and Robinia pseudoacacia) inside a Strict Nature Reserve was conducted. R. pseudoacacia showed a 70% higher PI, with a strongly greater value at morphological leaf level, associated with a greater ability to survive and grow in forest understory, explaining its greater widespread. Otherwise, A. altissima showed its highest PI at physiological level, which was associated with the ability to colonize and grow in environments with high-light regimes. Based on these results, the conservative management has limited the presence of A. altissima by its lower ability to grow in forest understory. In fact, the small-scale gaps in the forest infrastructure, that could allow its recruitment, are originated only from the death of a single tree or small group of trees. Regarding R. pseudoacacia, it is critical to maintain this type of management because any disturbances resulting in large openings could further promote its presence inside the Reserve.