中国奶牛养殖生产布局优化研究——基于比较优势的实证分析

科学分析奶牛养殖区域比较优势,是优化中国奶牛养殖生产布局的前提条件。利用2001-2017年中国乳业数据,通过面板数据模型分析影响中国奶牛养殖生产布局的关键因素,基于比较优势理论、采用资源禀赋系数法,针对关键因素进一步分析中国奶牛养殖区域比较优势,探讨中国奶牛养殖生产布局的优化方向。研究结果表明:中国奶牛养殖生产布局主要受到玉米产量、生产者预期和温度的影响,不同地区在这三个方面具有不同的奶牛养殖比较优势。奶牛养殖优势区域主要集中在华北产区和西部产区,包括内蒙古、河北、山西、新疆、甘肃和宁夏;非优势区域主要集中在南方产区,包括上海、江苏、浙江、福建、湖北、湖南、广东、四川、安徽、江西和广西;其余省份为较优势区域,主要集中在东北产区和大城市周边产区。因此,从区域发展层面,提出建设优势区域产业带、因地制宜发展较优势区域、引导非优势区域转移和整合区域资源优势等建议;从奶牛养殖生产布局显著性影响因素层面,提出推广种养结合养殖模式、种植替代玉米的饲料作物、引导乳制品消费、改善养殖基础设施等建议。     

资本禀赋、技术认知与农户耕地低碳利用意愿

耕地低碳利用对于减少农业温室气体排放,促进农业持续健康发展具有积极意义。建立资本禀赋、技术认知的理论分析模型和研究假说,利用湖北省347户农户的调研数据,在测度农户资本禀赋、耕地低碳利用技术认知的基础上,采用Logit模型、中介效应模型、调节效应检验方法,就资本禀赋、技术认知与农户耕地低碳利用意愿的关系进行实证研究。结果发现,资本禀赋不仅对农户耕地低碳利用意愿在1%水平上有显著的直接正向影响,还会通过技术认知这一中介变量在1%水平上产生显著的间接正向影响,环境素养在农户自我效能认知和耕地低碳利用意愿间发挥正向调节作用。据此,建议从经济资本、社会资本、文化资本3个角度提升农户的资本禀赋,通过多种渠道提升农户对耕地低碳利用的认知水平,提高农户环境素养。     

家庭经济禀赋、政策认知与农户宅基地流转意愿——基于江西省456份问卷调查

构建科学有效的宅基地流转机制是一个迫切需要解决的基础性课题。笔者利用江西省456户农户的实际调查数据,运用Logit回归模型研究家庭经济禀赋、政策认知对农户宅基地流转意愿的影响。研究结果表明：家庭经济禀赋中非农收入比重、家庭存款、家庭人均年收入对农户宅基地流转意愿具有显著正向影响；政策认知中“一户一宅”认知、流转规定认知程度对农户宅基地流转意愿具有显著负向影响。为此,应进一步提高农户非农就业机会,改善农民务工经商的就业环境、应加快制定“一户一宅”的配套制度,构建更加合理和更具有操作性的宅基地流转政策体系。     

Energy Efficiency Analysis of Heating System in the Birdhouse

In this paper the problem of energy consumption and environment in the birdhouse is introduced and the reconstructive measures aiming at energy savings are recommended. The measures include the limitation of temperature region, reconstruction of the building envelop and using the sunny board at the south side of the birdhouse roof. Finally, the energy efficiency of the reconstructive project is estimated.     

江苏省土地资源禀赋度空间变化研究

本文从土地数量、质量、结构和效益等方面构建了土地资源禀赋度评价指标体系,并采用多边形综合指标法对江苏全省各市县土地资源禀赋现状及空间变化进行了研究。结果表明:①江苏省土地资源禀赋度差异显著,呈现由南向北先递减后递增的规律,总体上苏南好于苏北好于苏中;②1996—2006十年间各市县土地资源禀赋度总体有所下降;③今后应根据区域特点,采取针对措施,提高区域土地资源禀赋度。     

农村养老服务机构中五保老人之增权介入刍议

养老机构是提供养老服务的重要载体,在老龄化加速的今天,加快和完善养老服务机构的发展,是适应人口老龄化和社会发展的客观要求,也是构建和谐社会的体现。以河南省荥阳市五保供养幸福园为例,结合我国农村养老服务机构的现状进行分析,从增权视角出发,分析增权在农村养老服务机构问题解决中的有效应用和实施可能性。     

Estimating the impacts of water pricing on smallholder irrigators in North West Province, South Africa

Worldwide growing water scarcity has increased the call for economic instruments to stimulate rational water use in agriculture. Furthermore, cost-recovery is now widely accepted as a cornerstone of sustainable water management. In many developing countries, where agricultural water use is often still subsidised, water pricing policies are developed for allocating water efficiently and achieving sustainability of water systems. However, the impacts of water pricing policies on irrigation water use and on farm production systems is mostly unknown. We introduce an innovative two-stage methodology that allows estimating these effects at farm level. Applying the method to small-scale irrigators in South Africa, we show that water demand is quite responsive even to small changes in water price. In addition, the introduction of a water price significantly decreases farm profit. This appears to be a problem primarily for the poorer farmers.     

Irrigation scheduling strategies for cotton to cope with water scarcity in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia

The Central Asian countries face high water scarcity due to aridity and desertification but excess water is often applied to the main irrigated crops. This over-irrigation contributes to aggravate water scarcity problems. Improved water saving irrigation is therefore required, mainly through appropriate irrigation scheduling. To provide for it, after being previously calibrated and validated for cotton in the Fergana region, the irrigation scheduling simulation model ISAREG was explored to simulate improved irrigation scheduling alternatives. Results show that using the present irrigation scheduling a large part of the applied water, averaging 20%, percolates out of the root zone. Several irrigation strategies were analyzed, including full irrigation and various levels of deficit irrigation. The analysis focused a three-year period when experiments for calibration and validation of the model were carried out, and a longer period of 33 years that provided for an analysis considering the probabilities of the demand for irrigation water. The first concerned a wet period while the second includes a variety of climatic demand conditions that provided for analyzing alternative schedules for average, high and very high climatic demand. Results have shown the importance of the groundwater contribution, mainly when deficit irrigation is applied. Analyzing several deficit irrigation strategies through the respective potential water saving, relative yield losses, water productivity and economic water productivity, it could be concluded that relative mild deficits may be adopted. Contrarily, the adoption of high water deficit that produce high water savings would lead to yield losses that may be economically not acceptable.     

Application of system dynamics approach for time varying water balance in aerobic paddy fields

Increasing water scarcity has necessitated the development of irrigated rice systems that require less water than the traditional flooded rice. The cultivation of aerobic rice is an effort to save water in response to growing worldwide water scarcity with the pressure to reduce water use and increase water productivity. An accurate estimation of different water balance components at the aerobic rice fields is essential to achieve effective use of limited water supplies. Some field water balance components, such as percolation, capillary rise and evapotranspiration, can not be easily measured; therefore a soil water balance model is required to develop and to test water management strategies. This paper presents results of a study to quantify time varying water balance under a critical soil water tension based irrigation criteria for the cultivation of non-ponded “aerobic rice” fields along the lower parts of the Yellow River. Based on the analysis and integration of existing field information on the hydrologic processes in an aerobic rice field, this paper outlines the general components of the water balance using a conceptual model approach. The time varying water balance is then analyzed using the feedback relations among the hydrologic processes in a commercial dynamic modeling environment, Vensim. The model simulates various water balance components such as actual evapotranspiration, deep percolation, surface runoff, and capillary rise in the aerobic rice field on a daily basis. The model parameters are validated with the observed experimental field data from the Huibei Irrigation Experiment Station, Kaifeng, China. The validated model is used to analyze irrigation application soil water tension trigger under wet, dry and average climate conditions using daily time steps. The scenario analysis show that to conserve scarce water resources during the average climate years the irrigation scheduling criteria can be set as −30 kPa average root zone soil water tension; whereas it can be set at −70 kPa during the dry years, however, the associated yields may reduce. Compared with the flooded lowland rice and other upland crops, with these two alternatives irrigation event triggers, aerobic rice cultivation can lead to significant water savings.     

农地非农化过程中的社会燃烧理论研究

协调经济发展和农地保护之间的矛盾需要对农地非农化进行合理的调控.论文运用社会燃烧理论分析了农地非农化过程的发生,认为农地非农化是在“燃烧物质”——人口增长、资源禀赋、经济发展,“助燃剂”——农地比较经济效益低、农地非农化收益分配不合理、土地产权、权能模糊和地方政府的短期行为,“点火温度”——城市土地使用制度的第一次革命和快速城市化下共同作用的结果.其中,农地比较经济效益低、农地非农化收益分配不合理、土地产权、权能模糊和地方政府的短期行为是当前调控农地非农化应该重点解决的问题.