Commuting distances to local non‐farm workplaces and out‐migration: The case of Northeast Thailand

The relationship between commuting distances and where people work has been studied for urban contexts in both developed countries and developing countries. However, few studies have examined the situation in rural areas, and none look at commuting distances to non‐farm workplaces in rural areas of developing countries. This paper investigates how commuting distance, and thus accessibility, to local non‐farm work influences non‐farm employment and out‐migration from rural villages in Northeast Thailand. The main issues examined are: (i) the distance that rural residents travel to work in local non‐farm jobs; and (ii) the influence that local non‐farm employment has on the number of outmigrants from rural villages. The study finds: (i) distance between villages and non‐farm work sites impact the number of villagers who are employed in regular wage work; (ii) beyond 20 km villagers are less likely to travel to non‐farm employment using their own means of transportation; and (iii) employment in regular wage work decreases outmigration. The findings from this study contribute to the debates over the drivers of rural out‐migration, rural livelihood changes, and agrarian changes that are taking place in Southeast Asia.     

城市池塘水质时间变化特性--以扬州大学江阳路南校区池塘为例

城市中的池塘是城市水体的重要组成部分,为揭示城市化背景下池塘水体水质的时间变化特性,选取扬州大学江阳路南校区池塘为研究区,对该池塘2018年7月至2019年6月的水质参数蓝绿藻浓度(Phyco)、水温(WT)、溶解氧(DO)、pH与电导率(EC)进行观测,采用变异系数法、单因子水质标识指数法以及多元线性回归法对各参数的变化特性进行评价。结果显示:池塘WT呈季节性变化;观测期间pH变化范围为7.74~9.98,水体呈碱性;DO变化的随机性较强,未表现出明显变化规律;各水质参数变异性及权重从大到小依次为WT>DO>EC>pH;以DO为指标的单因子水质标识指数结果表明:池塘DO达到Ⅲ类水要求的时段占总观测时段的84%;多元线性回归分析结果表明:DO与WT、pH呈正相关,与Phyco呈负相关,Phyco及pH的变化对DO浓度的影响相对于WT大。     

Dissolved oxygen controls summer habitat of Clear Lake Hitch (Lavinia exilicauda chi), an imperilled potamodromous cyprinid

Clear Lake Hitch is an imperilled minnow endemic to Clear Lake, Lake County, California, United States listed as threatened under the California Endangered Species Act (ESA) and a candidate for listing under the United States ESA. It exhibits a potamodromous life cycle whereby adults, which reach up to 6 + years in age and over 350 mm in length, migrate into Clear Lake's ephemeral tributaries briefly during spring to spawn. Conservation and management of Clear Lake Hitch is inhibited, in part, by a lack of information on the lacustrine habitat of nonbreeding individuals within Clear Lake. To address this problem, we sampled Clear Lake Hitch with gill nets in a stratified random sampling design to determine the distribution and habitat associations in early summer 2017 and 2018. We identified abundance-habitat relationships for juveniles and adults using Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial generalised linear mixed modelling. Results indicated that dissolved oxygen concentration was the most important habitat feature measured; juveniles and adults were substantially more abundant in normoxic (≥2 mg/l) than in hypoxic (<2 mg/l) habitat. Both also exhibited weak positive relationships with chlorophyll fluorescence, suggesting relatively productive habitats may support higher numbers of Clear Lake Hitch. Spatially, juveniles were most abundant in nearshore habitats while adults were ubiquitous, indicating an ontogenetic habitat expansion that may be associated with a resource availability-predation risk trade-off. Management actions undertaken to improve hypoxia problems in Clear Lake would also improve Clear Lake Hitch habitat.     

基于线性混合模型的蓝点马鲛叉长和体重关系的月间及性别差异

为了研究蓝点马鲛（）生活史特征的异质性，根据2018年10月至2019年3月在东海外海渔场的拖网调查采样数据，对其叉长和体重关系的月间及性别差异进行了研究。依据收集的367尾蓝点马鲛样本，求得其叉长和体重关系（b的估计均值为2.794。本研究构建了广义线性模型和9个线性混合模型，用于研究蓝点马鲛的叉长和体重关系（）在时间及性别上的差异。贝叶斯信息准则（BIC）值和均方根误差值均表明，最复杂的线性混合模型（即月份和性别对两个参数P<0.01）。在最优模型中，a值则与此相反。本研究表明，月份和性别对蓝点马鲛叉长和体重关系具有显著的影响，线性混合模型能把月份和性别的异质性通过随机效应在单个模型中更准确、快速地体现，从而进一步证实了此模型在数据来源异质性研究中的优势。     

Development of a linear mixed-effects individual-tree basal area increment model for masson pine in Hunan Province,South-central China

ABSTRACT

An individual-tree basal area increment model was developed for masson pine based on 26276 observations of 13,138 trees in 987 sample plots from the 7th (2004), 8th (2009), and 9th (2014) Chinese National Forest Inventory in Hunan Province, South-central China. The model was built using a linear mixed-effects approach with sample plots included as random effects since the data have a hierarchical stochastic structure and biased estimates of the standard error of parameter estimates could be a consequence of applying ordinary least square (OLS) for regression. In addition, within-plot heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation were also considered. The final mixed-effects model was determined according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), log-likelihood (Loglik), and the likelihoodratio test (LRT). The results revealed that initial diameter (DBH), the sum of the basal area (m²/ha) in trees with DBHs larger than the DBH of the subject tree (BAL), number of trees per hectare (NT), and elevation (EL) had a significant impact on individual-tree basal area increment. The mixed-effects model performed much better than the basic model produced using OLS. Additionally, the variance structure of the model errors was successfully modeled using the power function. However, the autocorrelation structures were not defined because there was no autocorrelation amongst the data. It is believed that the final model will contribute to the scientific management of the masson pine.     

基于高光谱成像技术识别水稻纹枯病

【目的】利用高光谱成像技术对水稻纹枯病进行早期的快速无损识别,结合判别分析方法建立相应的鉴别模型。【方法】以健康和感染纹枯病的水稻幼苗为研究对象,采集叶片和冠层各180个样本的380~1 030 nm波段的360条高光谱图像,剔除明显噪声部分后,以440~943 nm波段作为水稻样本的光谱范围,分别用不同的方法预处理获得水稻叶片的光谱曲线。采用偏最小二乘–判别分析(PLS-DA)对不同预处理的光谱建模。采用MNF算法对冠层的原始光谱数据进行特征信息提取,并基于特征信息建立线性判别分析(LDA)模型和误差反向传播神经网络(BPNN)判别模型。【结果】标准正态变量变换(SNV)预处理后建立的PLS-DA模型的预测集判别正确率最高,为92.1%。基于特征信息的LAD和BPNN模型的判别结果优于基于全波段的PLS-DA判别模型。基于最小噪声分离变换特征信息提取的BPNN模型取得了最优效果,建模集和预测集正确率分别达99.1%和98.4%。【结论】采用高光谱成像技术对水稻纹枯病生理特征进行无损鉴别是可行的,本研究为水稻纹枯病的识别提供了一种新方法。     

Genetic structuring and diversity patterns along rivers – local invasion history of Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae) along the Danube River in Vienna (Austria) shows non‐linear pattern

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an annual weed from North America that nowadays is invasive in many countries worldwide. In Austria, numerous populations of A. artemisiifolia are located along the Danube River, especially along the ‘New Danube’ (Vienna). This area is characterised by ruderal and riparian sites, which are regularly flooded. To better understand the spread of A. artemisiifolia and its colonising behaviour along the Danube River, we analysed genetic structure and diversity based on 23 populations linearly arranged along the Viennese Danube riverbed and upstream, utilising the Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprint method. We generated 284 polymorphic AFLP markers across 446 A. artemisiifolia plants. The genetic diversity within populations was higher (HW = 0.091) than among populations (HB = 0.007). This result indicates A. artemisiifolia introductions from similar mixtures of sources or spread from a single already mixed introduction. Within our local setting, we were unable to identify neither source or sink populations nor an obvious linear genetic structuring. Genetic among‐population differentiation was low to moderate (amova ‐derived F_ST = 0.124). Lack of geographical structuring is indicative of highly dynamic gene flow, which is further supported by the absence of an isolation‐by‐distance pattern. Multiple introductions and non‐directional gene flow are most likely promoted by anthropogenic disturbance and human‐mediated dispersal. Our results demonstrate the ability and speed of A. artemisiifolia to settle in newly disturbed areas and the difficulties to predict invasion directions, as downstream river dispersal was negligible.     

1971-2017年羌塘国家级自然保护区持续干旱日数的时空变化特征

为全面分析羌塘国家级自然保护区的干旱变化特征,有效应对干旱风险和生态环境保护。本文采用利用5个气象站点1971－2016 年逐日降水量资料,以持续干旱日数(CDD)为干旱评价指标,采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和R/S分析等方法,分析了自然保护区CDD的时空变化特征。结果表明：多年平均下,自然保护区各站CDD为78～162 d,总体呈自西向东递减分布；CDD偏多概率为51.1%。近47年保护区CDD呈减少趋势,平均每10年减少3.4 d；20世纪90年代以来,CDD趋于增加。70年代CDD明显偏多,为近40年最多的10年；80年代至21世纪前10年基本正常。CDD异常特多年份出现过2次,均发生20世纪90年代；未出现异常特少年份。在时间转折上,保护区CDD的突变点出现在1980年, 从一个相对偏多期跃变为一个相对偏少期。根据R/S分析,保护区CDD的Hurst指数大于0.5,说明未来仍将趋于减少。     

竹叶片氮含量高光谱估测方法对比研究

为实现快速无损检测竹叶片氮含量，采用波长范围为350~2500nm的地物光谱仪获取竹叶片光谱数据，以金镶玉竹叶片为样本，对其进行高光谱分析。将高光谱原始反射率及其一阶微分、对数一阶微分和二阶微分值，与化学法测量的竹叶片氮含量值进行了相关性分析，分别获得了不同微分变化下的特征波段；基于微分变换后的高光谱反射率数据，分别采用二元线性回归、多元逐步回归、偏最小二乘回归和基于主成分分析的BP神经网络方法，建立了4种金镶玉竹叶片的氮含量高光谱估测模型。对比4种估测模型的校验结果表明，在光谱反射率的对数一阶微分变换下，采用拓扑结构为6-10-1的基于主成分分析的BP神经网络估测模型，校验环节决定系数为0.838，均方根误差RMSE为0.0452，具备较好的竹叶片氮含量估测效果。     

基于线性规划的耕作层土壤剥离利用空间配置方法研究

以广西壮族自治区宾阳县为例,以待剥离土壤空间分布及回覆利用优先级分析为基础,以村庄为单位划定供需圈,探讨基于线性规划的耕作层土壤剥离利用空间配置方法。结果表明,宾阳县理论可剥离耕作层土壤2.40×106m3,整治需求1.85×107m3,耕作层土壤供给远小于需求,并且在空间上分布不均衡;依据覆土效益优先的原则,确定回覆区优先级,提出剥离耕作层土壤空间配置方案,即城乡建设用地增减挂钩利用5.235 2×104m3、土地开发复垦利用1.446 637×106m3、旱改水利用3.327 38×105m3、高标准基本农田建设利用1.042 804×106m3;利用供需圈及线性规划模型将宾阳县划分为7个供需圈,剥离土壤按回覆优先级从高到低逐步利用,加权平均运距为5 369 m,回覆效益良好,经济成本可接受。以村为单位划定供需圈、线性规划优化土壤剥离利用空间配置的方法,可以优化利用方式、缩短运输距离,进而提高效益与效率,可为其他区域实施耕作层剥离利用工作提供方法借鉴。