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1.
非洲猪瘟对中国生猪市场和产业发展影响分析   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
受非洲猪瘟疫情、环保等因素影响,生猪产能快速深度下降,未来2 a猪肉供给偏紧特征明显,生猪价格快速进入新一轮上涨周期,未来养殖收益将连续3 a处于较好水平,未来2 a猪肉进口预期创新高。短期来看,非洲猪瘟影响下产销区供给过剩和供给偏紧交替出现,猪价由区域分化演变为普遍性上涨。受非洲猪瘟防控政策、产业生物安全水平提升需求和近期出台的产业支持政策等因素影响,中国生猪产业的生产和屠宰布局、流通模式、消费结构、猪肉贸易、价格周期等发生深刻变革。非洲猪瘟导致中国生猪养殖模式向适度规模转变,"公司+农户"成为主要发展模式,屠宰产能由销区向产区转移,管理和防疫成本提高,生猪产能恢复速度将较缓慢,猪肉消费加速向冷鲜肉转变,在肉类消费结构中比重将进一步下降,未来猪肉进口保持较高水平将成为常态。要有效实施非洲猪瘟分区防控、保障生猪市场稳定,需要通过加强区域化防控机制的顶层设计和立法,优化非洲猪瘟强制性扑杀补贴机制,加强基层兽医体系建设,实施"政府+企业+养殖户"联防联控,降低疫病传播风险,推动生猪产业可持续发展。  相似文献   
2.
This study examines the development and trends of China's alfalfa market and imports, identifies key factors for the rapid increase in China's alfalfa imports, and discusses potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations on the alfalfa markets and trade in both nations. China's rapid transition toward larger-scale commercial dairy production, with enhanced feed and cost management as well as quality and safety control, and its limited resources for high-quality alfalfa production are key factors for the dramatic increase in its alfalfa imports, from 19 601 metric tons in 2008 to 1.38 million metric tons (mmt) in 2018. While the United States dominated China's alfalfa imports with an average share of 97.01% from 2007 to 2017, the share dropped to 83.76% in 2018 and 63.28% in January 2019 due to the trade dispute and retaliations started in 2018. China will likely remain a large importer of alfalfa because of both its growing demand and the comparative advantages of imported alfalfa in quality and price, but the imports from the United States will be highly affected by the ongoing trade dispute and negotiations. China is also expected to make more efforts to reduce its dependence on U.S. alfalfa through increased investment in domestic alfalfa production and identification of alternative sources of alfalfa and other hay imports.  相似文献   
3.
2001—2020年中国奶粉进口贸易发展呈现规模持续增扩与地位提升,产品结构趋于优化,进口来源有效拓展,进口均价持续攀升等特征。但也存在着进口增势迅猛,冲击国内产业;来源市场集中,均价不断高涨;假洋奶粉泛滥,扰乱市场秩序;走私花样繁多,海关监管困难等问题。提出新时期应积极扶持国产奶粉生产企业转型升级,提升核心竞争力;拓展来源渠道,分散风险集聚;整顿行业乱象,规范市场秩序;从严海关监管,打击非法走私,实现国内奶粉行业可持续健康发展。  相似文献   
4.
乳制品进口对满足国内需求、促进我国乳业整体水平的提高和生产结构调整起到一定作用。受乳品质量安全事件频发、生鲜乳标准降低、国内需求不断增加和国际贸易环境的影响,近年来乳制品进口量增加,对我国奶牛养殖业形成压力,使众多乳制品企业出现生存危机,侵害了乳业广大生产者和消费者的利益。本文分析了乳制品进口对我国乳业影响,并提出了有关支持和保护我国乳业发展的政策建议。  相似文献   
5.
中国食用菌产业现状及预测   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
为了明确我国食用菌产业现状及未来发展环境,基于2007~2014年全国食用菌总产量、总产值、进出口和国内需求量数据,分析我国食用菌产业发展现状,利用弹性系数法预测未来5年全国食用菌市场总体情况,得出了食用菌产业需大于供的现状,在2020年全国食用菌供需状况将达到平衡.  相似文献   
6.
入世三年对我国棉花生产影响的初步评价   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
自2001年11月我国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来,棉花消费年均增长90多万t,生产规模扩大,总产增加,价格与国际接轨,但涨落幅度大,棉花主产品产值和棉农收益两年增一年减,增减幅度大。原棉进口数量巨增,净进口260万t。大量进口对国产原棉产生较大的冲击。原棉、棉纱线和棉机织物3年进口总金额140.13亿美元。出口总金额184.47亿美元,出口多于进口,即顺差42.34亿美元。在棉花产业链条中,原棉逆差40.97亿美元,棉纱线逆差3.99亿美元,棉机织物顺差89.3亿美元。这些结果表明,在棉花产业链条中,棉机织物的受惠最大,棉纱线次之,原棉受惠最小,或受冲击最大,产业之间的利益非均衡性。  相似文献   
7.
This article evaluates the effects of extensive media coverage of a study published in 2004 regarding the presence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other organic contaminates in farmed salmon on U.S. import demand for fresh farmed salmon. The study indicated that levels of PCBs differed according to source, with highest PCB levels found in salmon from Northern Europe and lowest in those from Chile. Using a newspaper article index as a proxy for information, a two-stage demand model is estimated. In the first stage, total U.S. import demand for fresh farmed salmon is estimated to determine the overall effect of the information, while the second stage determines if there were any significant changes in market shares of source countries. Results indicate that imports declined by approximately one-third of what would have been in the absence of the PCB media stories during 2004–2006, and that some changes in exporters’ market shares occurred. Health implications for U.S. seafood consumers are discussed.  相似文献   
8.
The cross-commodity price transmission is an approach to derive meaningful results from the price information, and is mostly influenced by the substitutability and complementary relations among products. Using time series data collected from the National Marine Fisheries Statistics, the present study specified and estimated cross-commodity price transmission models for 13 salmon products imported in the U.S. market. The salmon products are differentiated by form, cut, source/origin, and production environment. The estimated cross-product price transmission elasticity and degree of substitutability among them varied considerably. Whole fresh farmed Canadian and Norwegian Atlantic salmon did not have any close import substitutes in the U.S. market among the salmon products considered in the study. A reduced pricing strategy would result in an increase in U.S. salmon import market share of Chilean and U.K. Atlantic fillet fresh, if the U.S. import demand for it is relatively own-price elastic.  相似文献   
9.
Millions of South Koreans took to the streets for more than 2 months in 2008 ostensibly in protest over their government's handling of beef imports from the United States. This study examines the technical, psychometric, and sociocultural dimensions of these public protests by conducting a content analysis of the coverage of the English language daily newspaper The Korea Herald. The results suggest that the scarcity of technical risk assessment information and the preponderance of normative or outrage factors in the newspaper's coverage (lack of trust in government, perceptions of inequity, and unequal benefits accruing to both nations) may have fueled public anxiety and anger. The findings also point to social, cultural, and historical factors that may explain why allowing U.S. beef into the Korean market elicited strong public reactions.  相似文献   
10.
The consumption of wood and wood products in Greece is based greatly on imports necessitating every year a great proportion of public expenditures. The study of wood and wood product imports consequently, is important to the national economy and can be a useful guide for the forest farms, wood industries and wood firms. In this paper the Greek aggregate import demand for Unprocessed wood (such as logs) Processed wood (such as sawn wood), Veneer Crafts (such as veneer sheets) and Wood Manufactures during the period 1969–2001 is empirically analysed using the linear approximation of quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) model. Imports of Unprocessed wood, Veneer Crafts and Wood Manufactures are found to be price-elastic, in contrast to Processed wood imports. Processed wood, Veneer Crafts and Wood Manufacture imports are found to be expenditure-elastic while Unprocessed wood is found to be an inferior good. Substitution possibilities are found to be significant between Veneer Crafts and all the remaining wood imports and between Processed wood and Unprocessed wood.  相似文献   
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