The effect of random and density‐dependent variation in sampling efficiency on variance of abundance estimates from fishery surveys

Abundance indices (AIs) provide information on population abundance and trends over time, while AI variance (AIV) provides information on reliability or quality of the AI. AIV is an important output from surveys and is commonly used in formal assessments of survey quality, in survey comparison studies, and in stock assessments. However, uncertainty in AIV estimates is poorly understood and studies on the precision and bias in survey AIV estimates are lacking. Typically, AIV estimates are “design based” and are derived from sampling theory under some aspect of randomized samples. Inference on population density in these cases can be confounded by unaccounted process errors such as those due to variable sampling efficiency (q). Here, we simulated fish distribution and surveys to assess the effect of q and variance in q on design‐based estimates of AIV. Simulation results show that the bias and precision of AIV depend on the mean q and variance in q. We conclude that to fully evaluate the reliability of AI, both observation error and variability in q must be accounted for when estimating AIV. A decrease in mean q and an increase in the variance in q results in increased bias and decreased precision in survey AIV estimates. These effects are likely small in surveys with mean q ≥ 1. However, for surveys where q ≤ 0.5, these effects can be large. Regardless of the survey type, AIV estimates can be improved with knowledge of q and variance in q.     

马奶子葡萄叶面积评估模型的建立

【目的】研究新疆南疆地区马奶子葡萄叶长、叶宽、叶长×叶宽及叶面积之间的关系,为田间快速估测葡萄叶面积提供方法。【方法】以南疆地区马奶子葡萄品种的叶片作为研究对象,测定叶片的叶长、叶宽、叶长×叶宽及叶面积值,分析不同指标和马奶子葡萄叶面积之间的关系。【结果】建立的叶面积估测的二元回归方程,是估测马奶子葡萄叶面积最佳的回归方程,估测的平均差异率仅为2.103%;建立的二元回归方程y₁=12.990x₁+2.501x₂-66.109为最优方程。【结论】马奶子葡萄叶片的叶长、叶宽、叶长×叶宽与叶面积均存在极显著相关,运用回归法估测马奶子葡萄叶面积,既不破坏树体,又具有简便易测、可靠性强、准确性高的优点。     

From research measurements to application: Bridging the gap; Overview of practical and scientific measurements in nutrition

Research that advances the practice of poultry nutrition covers a wide range, including fundamental studies that explore mechanisms in cells or a small number of birds and applied research that determines product yield in authentic production facilities. Ultimately, the applied research informs the economic analysis necessary for implementation of novel nutritional strategies or products. Nutritional controversies arise from applied research experiments that were not designed and interpreted based on the realities learned from mechanistic work. The experimental design and measurements selected for comparing nutrient sources or setting nutrient recommendations should be informed by underlying mechanistic information, such as the relative priorities of cells and tissues for the nutrient and the shape of the dose response relationship across a wide range of added dietary levels of the nutrient. Integrating mechanistic and applied research provides more robust results that can be used across wider ranges of diets and husbandry conditions.     

用岭估计研究以RS和GIS为基础的森林郁闭度估测

本文根据最小二乘估计（LS）及岭估计（R）原理，利用平均残差平方和准则，从样地对应的RS和GIS信息中，用计算机仿真方法筛选出影响郁闭度估测的主要信息。在分析LS估计存在缺陷的基础上，提出采用岭估计建立郁闭度估测方程。实例分析表明，当在影响郁闭度估测的变量间存在复共线性时，岭估计比LS估计具有较高的预报精度，可以满足生产的需要。     

运用数量化方法估测普洱县森林蓄积量

根据普洱县森林遥感调查资料 ,利用卫星影像特征判读数据与地面实测数据建立数学类型 ,估测森林蓄积量。首先将 2 0 0块有、疏林地数据输入数据本中 ,然后分析其与优势树种、龄组、郁闭度、海拔、坡向、坡度的关系 ,结果把样地分为针叶林、阔叶林、针阔混交林三个类型分别建立数学模型 ,以估测每公顷蓄积量。数学模型的建立是根据数量化模型的原理来编程 ,并通过计算机的不断调试 ,直到可行为止。蓄积量比较精度达到 90 3%。     

棉花曲叶病毒对棉花造成的经济损失评估

棉花曲叶病毒(Cotton leafcurl virus)是我国进境检疫性病毒,严重危害棉花的生长,给棉花生产带来巨大经济损失。文中分析此病毒可能给棉花生产所造成的损失,包括直接经济损失、间接经济损失和防治费用。估算了棉花曲叶病毒对棉花造成的经济损失值为77.27亿元~498.61亿元。     

岷江干旱河谷几种乔木抗旱性研究

岷江上游干旱河谷地区是我国西部生态环境最恶劣的地区之一,也是我国最困难的造林地区之一。本试验以生理研究为基础,选择干旱河谷区造林地内具有相对较高成活率和保存率的针叶树种岷江柏(Cupressus chen-giana)、辐射松(Pinus radiata)和阔叶树种臭椿(Ailanthus altissima)、榆树(Ulmus pumilaL.)、刺槐(Robinia pseu-doacacia),分别采用主成分分析法和综合评价法对影响其抗旱性的主要生理指标和试验树种的抗旱性进行了分析研究。结果表明:①影响该地区试验树种抗旱性的主要生理指标为:可溶性糖含量、SOD活性、游离脯氨酸含量、水分饱和亏缺度、叶片含水量和24h失水率;②5个试验树种的抗旱性表现为岷江柏最高,其次榆树>刺槐>臭椿,辐射松的抗旱性最差。     

黑龙江省水田耕整地机组技术经济分析

水田耕整地是水稻生产的重要环节,如何选择合适的机组进行耕整地作业则是保证作业质量、提高生产率、减少生产成本、增加农民收入的关键。为此,以黑龙江省绥棱县为例,运用技术经济分析的方法,对水田耕整地机组进行了评价分析,确定出合适的机组配备方案,为绥棱县水田耕整地机组的合理配备提出了可靠的依据,同时也为黑龙江省水稻机械化生产发展提供了参考。     

荒漠化土地土壤有机质含量的实测光谱估测

在对2个荒漠化典型区土壤采样、化验分析和光谱测量的基础上,分析荒漠化土地土壤的反射光谱特征及土壤有机质的光谱敏感范围,构建多种土壤有机质含量高光谱估测模型。结果表明:荒漠化土地土壤具独特的波浪型光谱曲线,其主要特点是在可见光和近红外的500～900nm光谱范围存在一个明显的弓形突起区,其对提取土壤有机质信息有实际意义;相关分析发现,在中心波长分别为600和830nm的可见光和近红外光光谱范围分别存在1个有机质光谱敏感区;土壤有机质含量高光谱估测模型验证结果表明,利用波长588nm处的反射光谱对数lgR588和反射光谱倒数1/R588以及波长835nm处的反射光谱倒数的导数(1/R835)'和反射光谱对数的导数(lgR835)'分别建立的模型,可以较好地估测荒漠化土地土壤有机质含量。     

计算机软件在造价工程中的应用

随着IT技术应用范围的扩大,计算机应用到了工程概预算的编制中。工程造价专业应用软件可以为工程造价管理人员完成大量的工作,有效提高了工作效率。然而工程造价软件在实际应用中也存在一些问题。本文针对这些问题提出改进措施,并对工程造价软件今后的发展方向进行了展望。