乌梁素海湿地环境与资源地理信息系统的研究

本系统建立乌梁素海湿地基础地形库、生态库、资源库、工程档案库、遥感影像库等基础数据库及信息发布系统 ,使 GPS、GIS、RS紧密结合 ,同时实现了专家决策支持系统与地理信息系统之间的一体化集成。本系统可以为乌梁素海湿地生态治理与资源开发提供全方位的数据信息及其管理 ,对生态工程规划与实施方案进行优化设计 ,并提供实时监控服务。     

The urbanization of wildlife management: Social science, conflict, and decision making

Increasing urbanization of rural landscapes has created new challenges for wildlife management. In addition to changes in the physical landscape, urbanization has also produced changes in the socio-cultural landscape. The greater distancing from direct interaction with wildlife in urbanized societies has led to the emergence of a culture whose meanings for wildlife are less grounded in the utilitarian/instrumental orientation of rural agrarian systems. Urban perspectives on wildlife are comprised of more highly individualized emotional/symbolic values. This shift creates two problems with respect to managing wildlife in an urbanizing landscape. First the increased diversity in values and meanings increases the likelihood for social conflicts regarding wildlife management while at the same time making socially acceptable resolutions more intractable. This in turn requires fundamental changes in decision-making paradigms and the research approaches used to inform decision making. Second, as remaining rural communities feel the pressures of urbanization, wildlife conflicts become conflicts not just over wildlife but conflict over larger socio-political concepts such as equity, tradition, private property rights, government control, power, and acceptable forms of knowledge. This paper examines the wildlife management implications of changes associated with increasing urbanization and employs two case studies to illustrate these issues. First a study of a controversy over urban deer management provides insights into how to map conflicting values and search for common ground in an urban culture with increasingly individualistic values for wildlife. Specifically, the analysis illustrates that common ground may, at times, be found even among people with conflicting value systems. The second case study examined a ranching community faced with predator reintroduction. This case study illustrates tensions that occur when the community of interest (i.e. a national public) is broader than the community of place in which the problem occurs. In this latter situation, the debate centers around more than just different views about the rights of animals. It also entailed the rights of individuals and communities to decide their future. The conclusion discusses the need for wildlife institutions to adapt their underlying decision making philosophy including the way science is integrated into decision making processes in light of the changes in social context caused by urbanization.     

Challenges in developing and implementing a decision support systems (ETÇAP) in forest management planning: a case study in Honaz and Ibradı, Turkey

Decision support systems (DSSs) are indispensable tools in preparing a forest management plan for a better combination of multiple forest values. This study attempted to develop and explain a stand-based forest management DSS (Ecosystem-based multiple-use forest planning [ETÇAP]) comprising a traditional simulation, linear programming (LP), metaheuristics and geographic information system. The model consists of five submodels; traditional management approach to handle inventory data, an empirical growth and yield model, a simulation to conceptualize management actions, a LP technique to optimize resource allocation and a simulated annealing approach to directly create a spatially feasible harvest schedule. The ETÇAP model has been implemented in a comparative two case study areas; Denizli–Honaz and Akseki–Ibrad?. Both simulation and optimization models outperformed to the traditional management plan. The periodical change of growing stock, allowable cuts, carbon sequestration and water production are used as performance indicators. The results showed that more amount of wood could be harvested over time compared to traditional level of harvesting. It could be concluded that various management strategies allowed managers to stimulate more decision options for better outputs through intertemporal trade-offs of management interventions as the model provided tools to quantify forest dynamics over time and space. Challenges exist to establish the functional relationships between forest structure and values for better quantification and integration into the management plans.     

基于相对熵排序的建筑工程项目投标决策

投标决策是施工企业面对的重要问题．在建筑工程项目投标问题上，先建立风险指标体系，再结合层次分析法和信息熵法求得风险指标的综合权重，然后借助相对熵排序法，对各个方案进行综合评价，得到有效反映各方案差异的评价模型，通过对比可知此法可行有效，且灵敏度高．     

开封市公共气象服务发展探讨

公共气象服务是为政府决策、民生发展提供的一项基础性公共事业。该文通过阐述开封市公共气象服务发展的现状,对比国内气象服务工作,分析其中存在的问题,以充分发挥气象服务的社会效益、经济效益。     

湖南洋泉水库调度的最优气候决策方法探讨

充分利用气候资源作好水库水位（量）调度、提高水库在抗旱和发电中的经济效益,是当今水库调度决策亟待解决的一个重要课题.本文根据气象经济学原理,运用连续函数求极值方法,利用洋泉水库有关经济参数,建立水库气候最优调度决策,在水库的实际调度中应用,可取得明显的社会经济效益.     

农田信息管理决策支持系统的设计与实现——基于Silverlight

随着我国农业的发展,农田分布范围不断扩大,产生的农田信息繁多而复杂。基于WebGIS的农业决策支持系统已在一些地区的现代化农业生产中得到了示范应用,但由于其客户端采用Ajax或Flex技术实现,存在多媒体功能不足及平台可移植性较差等问题。为此,借助WebGIS开放性平台,采用微软Silverlight技术,设计开发了基于Silverlight的农田信息管理决策支持系统,实现了地图基本操作、地块信息管理决策及环境信息管理决策等功能。该系统可以辅助用户管理农田信息,并为施肥及生产计划提供决策支持。在黑龙江红星农场的试用结果表明:系统自投入使用后运行正常,并能提供信息管理及适宜辅助决策支持。     

基于SD模型的长沙市水资源承载力研究

基于长沙市水资源现状,为平衡居民生活用水、经济生产用水和环境生态用水之间的关系,运用系统动力学方法,建立长沙市水资源-人口-经济-生态环境的耦合系统,模型模拟了现状延续型、经济发展型、节水治污型和综合协调型四种发展模式,选取GDP、人口数量、居民生活需水量、经济需水总量、供需压力作为主要评价指标。结果表明:第一、二、三产业分别保持10%、12%、12%年增长率且节流治污情况与现状延续型保持一致的方案,供需压力将达到节流治污方案的两倍多;经济生产用水对水资源供需压力的影响远大于居民生活用水和环境生态用水;通过适当降低人均用水量来平衡因人口数量增长而增加的居民生活用水是可行的。     

用层次分析法决策喷灌规划设计方案

在喷灌工程规划设计过程中,正确地选用规划设计方案,实际是一个综合分析决策的过程。主要应考虑的因素中,有些可定量,有些则是无法定量的。如何对非定量因素作定量分析,进而对整个喷灌规划设计方案作出评价决策,层次分析法是解决这类问题简洁、有效、实用的方法。     

THE OPTIMAL DECISTON OF ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT BY MARKOVIAN DECISION PROGRAMMING

This paper studies the tactics choice and its improvement in the development of economy by means of Markovian Decision Programming. An optimal decision and the maximum expected revenue can be obtained. The . paper also presents the procedures and formulas of numerical evaluation.