台风“利奇马”暴雨引发的土壤侵蚀调查研究——以山东省临朐县为例

[目的]实地调查极端降雨事件下的土壤侵蚀特征,探寻水土流失治理中存在的问题,为人类应对极端天气灾害提供科学依据。[方法]以受2019年8月9号台风"利奇马"暴雨影响较大的山东省临朐县为调查区域,采用资料分析与野外调查相结合的方法,分析曾家沟、耿家沟典型小流域的坡面侵蚀、道路侵蚀及弥河上游各级河道的冲淤情况。[结果]"利奇马"台风过境期间,暴雨中心的雨量站降雨量达到50 a一遇标准;林草地、撂荒地基本无细沟侵蚀发生,坡耕地细沟侵蚀模数为4 560～19 500 t/km~2,梯田田面上细沟集中于承接上方汇水的位置;受植被保护或石坎梯田的田坎完好,而其他类型田坎滑塌严重。调查样地滑塌侵蚀模数301～36 321 t/km~2,田坎滑塌最为严重;河岸尤其是弯顶处冲刷严重,河道回流区、两河交汇处、拦河坝以及桥梁上游等淤积量较大。[结论]小流域的水土保持措施可减少暴雨造成的土壤侵蚀量。建议针对不同部位和利用类型的土地设计修建适宜的蓄排水和保土措施,并加强对农民的水土保持型农艺培训,提升极端暴雨下的水土流失防灾减灾能力。     

基于不同风场的台风浪数值模拟

为了检验FVCOM海洋模式模拟台风浪的效果,分别以CCMP风场和WRF模式模拟风场构建驱动台风浪的海面风场模型,基于FVCOM海洋模式,以2010年的"凡比亚"台风为例进行台风浪数值模拟,并用站点浮标资料进行了模拟结果检验。结果表明,FVCOM海洋模式模拟的水位、有效波高结果与实际观测结果的整体误差较小,模拟效果较好;受到风场与地形的影响,最大增水与减水的区域分别位于台风中心的左侧沿岸和右侧沿岸;风场与表面流场的模拟结果也符合台风过程中的风生流分布特征,即风场与表面流场方向、大小存在一致性。此外,对比分析2种不同海面风场模型下的台风浪模拟结果发现,二者均能较好地模拟此次台风过程,但存在一定的差异,增加WRF模式模拟风场作为强迫驱动风场模拟的有效波高更接近观测值。     

台风“海鸥”造成的贵州强降水天气分析

利用贵州省七要素自动气象站雨量资料、区域自动气象站雨量资料及常规观测等资料,对2014年9月16日8:00~19日8:00受15号台风"海鸥"影响发生在贵州省西部和南部的一次区域性暴雨天气过程进行综合分析。结果表明,在有利的大尺度背景条件下,受500 h Pa长波冷槽和强盛的副高南侧偏东气流影响,阻挡台风北上,台风路径偏西,长波冷槽引导冷空气南下,侵入台风低压,加大辐合上升运动。冷空气的侵入使整层结构变为"上暖下冷"的结构,贵州省高、低空动力,热力,水汽和不稳定条件均有利于这次降雨过程的形成。西南地区特殊的西高东低的地形对暴雨的强度以及落区等起重要作用。     

Spatial pattern and regeneration dynamics in a temperate Abies–Tsuga forest in southwestern Japan

This article reports the regeneration dynamics of a temperate Abies–Tsuga forest in Kirishima Yaku National Park, southwestern Japan, and examines the influence of species coexistence mediated by gap disturbances on biomass production. All trees taller than 2 m in a 1-ha plot were monitored over four growing seasons. Three growth-form groups occupied different vertical layers. Evergreen conifers and deciduous broad-leaved trees tended to be spatially segregated from evergreen broad-leaved trees, which formed thickets in the understorey. The regeneration of understorey evergreen broad-leaved trees was affected by canopy gaps. The recruitment of conifers and deciduous broad-leaved species was not observed during the four growing seasons. This suggests that regeneration is sporadic and the present environmental conditions are not favorable for these canopy species. The mortality and unsuccessful recruitment of conifers and deciduous trees appeared to cause fluctuations in the productivity of the stand. However, an abundance of canopy gaps accelerates the regrowth of shorter species, and the fluctuation of productivity resulting from the population dynamics of canopy species would be partly mitigated by the regeneration of evergreen understorey species. The horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of the temperate mixed forest was a result of the patch structures of the three growth-form groups. The different regeneration patterns among the three groups, which were driven by interactions of species-specific regeneration niches and disturbance regimes, might be an important factor in maintaining the aboveground productivity in a transitional mixed forest between warm-temperate and cool-temperate zones.     

基于传递函数模型的台风中心气压动态预测

[目的]通过ARIMA模型和传递函数模型的预测精度比较找到广东省台风预测中心气压的最好方法。[方法]利用时序图和相关系数对台风的风力、最大风速和中心气压进行相关性分析,得到它们具有很强的相关性。[结果]使用台风风力和最大风速作为输入变量的传递函数模型对样本内数据具有更好的预测效果。[结论]将现代时间序列分析的理论与方法应用于气象预报具有重要的实际意义。     

Carbon dioxide exchange of a larch forest after a typhoon disturbance

A typhoon event catastrophically destroyed a 45-year-old Japanese larch plantation in southern Hokkaido, northern Japan in September 2004, and about 90% of trees were blown down. Vegetation was measured to investigate its regeneration process and CO₂ flux, or net ecosystem production (NEP), was measured in 2006–2008 using an automated chamber system to investigate the effects of typhoon disturbance on the ecosystem carbon balance. Annual maximum aboveground biomass (AGB) increased from 2.7 Mg ha⁻¹ in 2006 to 4.0 Mg ha⁻¹ in 2007, whereas no change occurred in annual maximum leaf area index (LAI), which was 3.7 m² m⁻² in 2006 and 3.9 m² m⁻² in 2007. Red raspberry (Rubus idaeus) had become dominant within 2 years after the typhoon disturbance, and came to account for about 60% and 50% of AGB and LAI, respectively. In comparison with CO₂ fluxes measured by the eddy covariance technique in 2001–2003, for 4.5 months during the growing season, the sum of gross primary production (GPP) decreased on average by 739 gC m⁻² (64%) after the disturbance, whereas ecosystem respiration (RE) decreased by 501 gC m⁻² (51%). As a result, NEP decreased from 159 ± 57 gC m⁻² to −80 ± 30 gC m⁻², which shows that the ecosystem shifted from a carbon sink to a source. Seasonal variation in RE was strongly correlated to soil temperature. The interannual variation in the seasonal trend of RE was small. Light-saturated GPP (P_max) decreased from 30–45 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ to 8–12 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ during the summer season through the disturbance because of large reduction in LAI.     

南海和西北太平洋热带气旋的命名及除名

热带气旋会带来严重的财产和人员伤亡,是自然灾害之一。因为海洋上可能同时出现多个热带气旋,为了减少混乱,当热带气旋达到热带风暴的强度时,气象机构便会对其作出命名。热带气旋会根据各个区域不同的命名表命名,这些命名表是由世界气象组织的委员或各区负责预测热带气旋的机构制订。当前被命名的对生命或财产造成重大伤亡和损失的热带气旋,国际气象组织会讨论决定是否将其从循环名单中删除,再由原来这个名称的国家重新提交新的名称,而提供名字的地区亦可自行要求更换名字。新的名字必须获国际气象组织台风委员会全体通过。全面介绍2000～2009年10年间产生在南海及西北太平洋的热带气旋命名规则以及被除名的热带气旋。     

台风“浣熊”过程分析

利用常规气象和卫星资料，对0801号台风“浣熊”的特点及环流形势与台风路径、强度变化的关系进行了分析。该结果可为今后台风路径、强度及登陆地点等的预报提供参考。     

江宁0808号台风暴雨天气特征分析

采用天气学和物理量特征分析方法,对台风“凤凰”给江宁带来的台风暴雨天气进行综合分析。结果表明：过程前期副高与“凤凰”之间强烈的偏南气流带来了充沛的水汽,后期东移南下的小股冷空气与台风残余势力相结合,在长江中下游地区形成了一个冷槽;强的水汽辐合和低空急流的出现是该暴雨形成的水汽和动力条件。     

“韦帕”台风暴雨过程分析

从天气形势、数值预报产品等方面,对"韦帕"台风暴雨过程进行分析总结,探讨了汛末由于台风影响而产生暴雨的形成机制。